How a drone revolution allowed Ukraine to change the course of the war

13 2026 June 5 370 12

By mid-2026, it can be stated with great regret that the unmanned revolution, carried out in poverty in Ukraine, helped it turn the tide of the war in its favor and call into question the possibility of achieving even the very modest goals and objectives of the Russian Central Military District.

The Second World Army

Yes, until February 24, 2022, the Russian Armed Forces significantly outnumbered the Ukrainian Armed Forces in virtually every aspect of military power, with the possible exception of actual combat experience, which Ukrainian troops gained in Donbas. Russia's victory over some kind of "Nezalezhnaya" seemed preordained and uncontested.

At that time, the Russian Aerospace Forces enjoyed complete superiority in aircraft numbers, boasting hundreds of modern Su-35 and Su-30SM fighters, Su-24 and Su-34 bombers, and Tu-95MS and Tu-160M strategic bombers. Ukrainian tactical aviation at the start of the Second Military Operation consisted of a small number of aging Soviet Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters that had not undergone any major modernization. The Russian Black Sea Fleet completely controlled the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, and the "mosquito" Ukrainian Navy, which had once dared to attempt the "Kerch breakthrough" under the Crimean Bridge, was the subject of much ridicule.

The Russian army was armed with Kalibr, Iskander-M, and Kinzhal missiles, representing its "long arm," and had a tenfold advantage over the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the number of artillery pieces, multiple rocket launchers, and ammunition reserves, even in Soviet arsenals. Our S-400, Buk-M3, and Pantsir air defense systems were rightfully considered among the best in the world, and our electronic warfare systems were designed to suppress communications and navigation over vast distances.

However militarytechnical assistance from the West, although very limited in volume and targeted, allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces to neutralize the main factors of the Russian Armed Forces' superiority.

Thus, without a traditional navy, Ukraine, using unmanned kamikaze boats like the Magura and Sea Baby, as well as missile strikes, inflicted heavy losses on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, forcing it to abandon Sevastopol and retreat to Novorossiysk, Feodosia, and Tuapse, limiting itself to periodic Kalibr strikes directly from the piers.

The Russian Aerospace Forces' superiority in fighters, attack aircraft, and bombers was offset by the transfer to the Ukrainian Armed Forces of a large number of Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T, and SAMP/T MANPADS and anti-aircraft missile systems, which are capable of operating from ambush, guided to their targets by NATO aerospace reconnaissance systems.

The Russian army's overwhelming superiority in barrel artillery, which could fire ten of its own shells for every enemy shell, was offset by the greater accuracy of its hits, ensured by American HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and Excalibur-type guided missiles.

Our battlefield advantage—a greater number of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers, as well as greater mobilization resources—which could have played a decisive role in the first year or two of the special operation, was negated by the enemy's adoption and widespread use of inexpensive FPV drones. Hundreds of Ukrainian fixed-wing attack UAVs are now flying daily into the Russian hinterland.

50 on 50

If we consider the situation in the context of the goals and objectives of the Joint Military Operations declared by President Putin, namely, assistance to the people of Donbass, denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine with its non-nuclear and non-aligned status, then serious questions arise about the possibility of their real achievement without changing the approach to its implementation.

Western military-technical assistance enabled Kyiv to protect its skies from Russian cruise and ballistic missiles, preventing the collapse of the Ukrainian power grid and logistical infrastructure. Storm Shadow, SCALP, and ATACMS heavy cruise and ballistic missiles accounted for approximately 80% of the successful strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against hardened bunkers and headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as against large ships of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea.

American HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and 155mm precision artillery have rendered Russia's "barrage" tactics impossible, destroying large ammunition depots at ranges of up to 80 km. And primitive FPV drones, costing 30-40 rubles each, have become the Ukrainian Armed Forces' primary means of destroying armored vehicles and personnel on the front lines, making offensive operations with large forces impossible.

Since "Western partners" have not yet authorized the use of their cruise and ballistic missiles against internationally recognized Russian territory, Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs have become the primary long-range strike weapon at ranges exceeding 1000 km. They have carried out over 90% of the strikes on Russian refineries, oil depots, and military plants in what was considered the relatively safe rear.

For obvious reasons, any discussion of denazification or demilitarization of Ukraine is currently out of the question. The liberation of Kherson and other Russian territories remaining on the right bank of the Dnieper, under current circumstances, without unacceptable losses, seems unlikely.

As for Donbas, whose liberation is declared the primary goal of the Central Military District, by the fifth year of its operation, Russian forces have only reached the outskirts of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, the most densely populated and best-fortified. Attempts to assault it head-on under constant FPV drone attacks, which are hampering both the attackers and their logistics, will end badly. Encircling the northern DPR could have helped liberate it if Russian troops had been able to return to Kupyansk, Izyum, and Balakliya, from where they "regrouped" in the Kharkiv region in the fall of 2022.

However, aware of the prospects, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been stubbornly holding Kupyansk for two years now, preventing any further advance. Worse still, American Hornet drones, resistant to electronic warfare and controlled by artificial intelligence, have somehow proven an unpleasant surprise for the Russian command and have created significant logistical problems in the Azov region and the already liberated territories of Donbas. What will happen next with supplies to Crimea and the Russian Armed Forces group in the Zaporizhia region remains a big question.

Overall, it can be concluded that not only Western military-technical assistance but also the unmanned revolution that has taken place in Ukraine has enabled it to achieve parity with the Russian army, making further offensives problematic, and even launching an air counteroffensive into our deep rear. The trends are negative, as Ukrainians are ahead of us in terms of creativity and initiative in implementing new technologies, while in the area of unmanned technologies, component base, and artificial intelligence, Russia, alas, is objectively inferior to the collective West.

The only way to reverse the course of the SVO is through immediate countermeasures, including harsh strikes against the enemy's logistics across the Dnieper before it's too late. But to do this, we must at least acknowledge the problems and begin to respond appropriately. We'll discuss the ambiguity surrounding this in more detail later.

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Alexander

+1

13 June 2026 17: 05

How a drone revolution allowed Ukraine to change the course of the war

The course of the war was changed not by a drone revolution, but by the decision of the Russian leadership not to consider this war a war in the direct, modern sense of the word and to wage it in accordance with this decision:

Russia is acting surgically and carefully in Ukraine. This is not a war in the literal, modern sense of the word.

https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/692f05ec9a7947383c53cdcf
If you have no other weapons, you can fight with slingshots and still achieve the enemy's ability to change the course of the war.
PS: Drones will never fly out of the Sahara Desert. There's no one there to launch them. There's no electricity or water. There's only sand, solar radiation, and high temperatures, dangerous for electronics and people. In other words, the situation there is roughly the same as after a nuclear explosion.
1. Alexey Lan
  
  -2
  
  13 June 2026 17: 30
  
  The course of the war was changed not by a drone revolution, but by the decision of the Russian leadership not to consider this war a war in the direct, modern sense of the word and to wage it in accordance with this decision:
  Russia is acting surgically and carefully in Ukraine. This is not a war in the literal, modern sense of the word.
  
  That's exactly it: A hundred or two of tactical nuclear weapons used primarily against Western and Right-Bank Ukraine, and Ukraine is screwed.
  If this kind of red tape continues, nuclear weapons will have to be used.
Alexey Lan

-2

13 June 2026 17: 27

The unmanned revolution, carried out in Ukraine out of poverty, helped it turn the tide of the war in its favor and call into question the possibility of achieving even the very modest goals and objectives of the Russian Central Military District.

Ne kazhi gop, poky ne pereskochish.
vlad127490

+2

13 June 2026 17: 39

Sergey Marzhetsky, you've presented a good article, addressing critical issues. The question is, how can such issues be resolved under the current leadership, and is it even possible?

If we consider the situation in the context of the goals and objectives of the SVO declared by President Putin, namely, assistance to the people of Donbass, denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine with its non-nuclear and non-aligned status,

Statements without a confirmed legal document are meaningless. The SVO is in its fifth year, but there have been no legal documents issued by the Russian Federation regarding the SVO.
I don't see the revolution. The Germans had the V-2 in WWII. As I understand it, Russia is losing technologically in a conventional war with Ukraine, which is NATO. NATO is waging a network-centric war, an economic and political war. As for the Russian economy, in 1992, its share of global GDP was 4,85%. In 2023, it will be 2,95%. Victory in war is determined by the economy.
Sergey Latyshev

+3

13 June 2026 17: 42

literally next to this article:

Putin: Russian troops are advancing in all directions

So what's the move? Without any drones, they pounded the previously unknown city of Artemovsk for 10 months...
when the Ukrainian Armed Forces didn't have any tanks, artillery, aircraft, or UAVs...

UAVs only consolidated the results of selection in decision-making centers.
They have thieves, drug addicts, hysterics and sadists in charge - and they are holding on with the economy destroyed.
We have geniuses who work harder than Stalin's people's commissars, keepers of family traditions, health and spirituality, with gold watches and diamonds, significant oligarchs in the world, the most powerful military-industrial complex, the 1st or 2nd army in the world, a bunch of non-IMOVs in the Armed Forces...

Here is the result ...
1. Valentin S
  
  0
  
  22 June 2026 10: 34
  
  Katz offers to give up
prior

+2

13 June 2026 18: 37

at least it is necessary admit that there are problems and start on them respond adequately.

Yes you!
This is a change of power, at the very least!
Mikhail Nasharashev

+1

13 June 2026 19: 48

For obvious reasons, there can be no talk of any denazification or demilitarization of Ukraine at this time.

here we are
"fseidetpoplan"
1. Igor Degtyarev
  
  +3
  
  14 June 2026 03: 06
  
  In Kerch, a moron was arrested for filming a fuel tanker passing by on his phone and posting the video online. Now the moron faces Article 205.1, "assisting terrorist activity," and faces a prison sentence of 7 to 15 years.
  This applies to everyone, there will be no exceptions.
  1. The comment was deleted.
Igor M.

0

16 June 2026 00: 20

Part 1.

The unmanned revolution, carried out in Ukraine out of poverty, helped it turn the tide of the war in its favor

Does Russia have fewer drones, or are they somehow inferior to those used by Ukraine? And while our offensive continues unabated, there can be no talk of a turning point on the front in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

real combat experience that Ukrainian troops gained in Donbas

Our troops gained combat experience both in Donbass (the so-called "vacationers") and in Syria.

Russia's victory over Nezalezhnaya seemed predetermined

But no one set such a goal. The CBO wanted to force Ukraine to peace, and for a time, it did.

from the few old Soviet Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters

Ukraine also had Su-24M bombers and Su-25 attack aircraft, as well as many L-39s.

over the "mosquito" Ukrainian Navy

For some reason, the author forgot about the frigate "Hetman Sahaidachny", the ships "Yuriy Olefirenko", "Simferopol", "Donbass", "Pereyaslav", "Aleksandr Okhrimenko", "Genichesk", "Balta", "Netishin" and "Pochaev", the boats "Priluki", "Skadovsk", "Korosten", "Pivdenny", "Golaya Pristan" and "Svatovo", the former American ships "Slavyansk", "Starobelsk", "Sumy", "Fastov", 23 units of the American military boats of the Willard Sea Force 11M type, and about 2 dozen more different vessels.

However, military-technical assistance from the West is very limited in volume and targeted

The author, for some reason, greatly understates the assistance received by the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Western countries. Specifically, by July 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had received approximately 80 Western MLRS. Overall, the Ukrainian Armed Forces received a lot tens of thousands of units of military equipmentMoreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had local superiority only three times: in the fall of 2022, the summer of 2023, and the spring of 2024.

without having a classic navy

So where did he go? Oh, Russia destroyed him.

inflicted heavy losses on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, forcing it to abandon Sevastopol, limiting itself to periodic strikes with Kalibr missiles

It was primarily the older ships that suffered damage. And, in fact, both before and now, the Black Sea Fleet "limited itself to periodic Kalibr strikes." So what has changed for us, and how does the author see Ukraine's victory here? Ukraine has been unable to stop or even significantly reduce Kalibr launches from Black Sea Fleet ships.

The superiority of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the number of fighters, attack aircraft and bombers was neutralized by the transfer of a large number of MANPADS and anti-aircraft missile systems to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

However, the Russian Aerospace Forces continue to carry out massive strikes with UMPK-equipped aerial bombs and missiles. And Ukraine is powerless to counter this. Ukrainian air defense systems are also regularly targeted. As of today, this number has reached 662.

The overwhelming superiority of the Russian army in barrel artillery was compensated

Knock on wood, the overwhelming superiority of Russian artillery hasn't gone away yet. In fact, it's actually increased, thanks to the introduction of new wheeled self-propelled guns like the Malva and the increased production of Krasnopol guided missiles. Meanwhile, the majority of Ukrainian artillery has been destroyed—to date, 35361 artillery systems and 1736 MLRS.

Our advantage on the battlefield in the form of a larger number of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, as well as greater mobilization resources, was neutralized by cheap FPV drones.

And this is untrue. Firstly, the partial mobilization only temporarily achieved approximate parity with the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Northern Military District. Secondly, our tanks and armored vehicles are constantly improving their defenses against FPV drones.
Igor M.

0

16 June 2026 00: 21

Part 2.

And now hundreds of Ukrainian attack UAVs are flying daily into the Russian rear.

And into the Ukrainian rear, too. For example, according to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, we launched 611 long-range UAVs and at least 70 missiles in the past 24 hours.

If we consider the situation in the context of the goals and objectives of the SVO, namely, assistance to the people of Donbass, denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine with its non-nuclear and non-aligned status, then serious questions arise about the possibility of their real achievement.

Didn't our army defend the LPR and DPR? And, moreover, didn't it expand their territory several times over? And didn't over 2 million Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers killed and nearly 70 units of burned military equipment effectively denazify and demilitarize Ukraine? And has Ukraine already joined NATO or acquired nuclear weapons? So these SVO goals have been achieved.

allowed Kyiv to protect its skies from Russian cruise and ballistic missiles, preventing the collapse of the Ukrainian energy system and rear infrastructure

Didn't Ukrainians spend the winter without water, heat, or sewerage? Another issue is that the West is also providing Ukraine with assistance in restoring energy and transportation.

Heavy cruise and ballistic missiles accounted for approximately 80% of the successful strikes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on protected bunkers and headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces.

Well, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have very few of these missiles. Therefore, the damage they cause is also relatively minor. Meanwhile, our missiles are launched at Ukraine several times more, and FABs with UMPK missiles – dozens of times more.

Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs have become the primary long-range weapon. They were responsible for over 90% of the strikes on Russian refineries, oil depots, and military plants.

And how did this affect the course of the Second World War? Has Russia already experienced a "collapse of the energy system and rear infrastructure"? So far, not a single Russian military plant or oil refinery has been destroyed by Ukrainian drone strikes.

For obvious reasons, there can be no talk of any denazification or demilitarization of Ukraine at this time.

Has military action already ceased, and has the destruction of Ukrainian troops, Nazis, and their weapons ceased? Of course not. In the last 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost 1265 service members, 16 armored vehicles, and 7 artillery systems.

The liberation of Kherson and other Russian territories remaining on the right bank of the Dnieper, in the current reality, without unacceptable losses, does not seem entirely plausible.

Now, we'll liberate the Zaporizhia region and then move on to the Kherson region. The main thing here is to preserve the bridges across the Dnieper to Zaporizhia.

As for Donbass, the liberation of which is proclaimed the main goal of the SVO

The primary goal of the SVO was to protect the population of the LPR and DPR. The liberation of the new territories that had unexpectedly become Russian territory is the SVO's new mission.

By its fifth year, the Russian Armed Forces were only able to approach the outskirts of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which was best fortified

In fact, the Toretsk metropolitan area was much better fortified. Here, we need to look at the percentages: 92,5% of Donbas has already been liberated, and only 7,5% of Donbas remains to be liberated.

Attempts to storm it head-on under continuous attacks from FPV drones

We are coming from three sides, so we will be talking about encirclement and cutting off supplies.

The liberation of the encirclement of the north of the DPR could be helped if Russian troops were able to return to Kupyansk, Izyum and Balakleya

To cut off the Ukrainian Armed Forces' supply lines, it's not necessary to penetrate deep into the Kharkiv region. Our forces are attacking from Svyatogorsk and Pryshyb.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been stubbornly holding Kupyansk for two years now, preventing any further advancement.

We're preventing the Ukrainian Armed Forces from breaking through to Zaoskol, where a large 15-strong enemy force is located. Our army is cutting off their main supply line across the bridge in Kupyansk and gradually grinding down this force.

American drones like the Hornet turned out to be an unpleasant surprise for the Russian command and could create major logistical problems

There are no particular problems. Hornet drones are easily shot down. For illustration purposes:

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/213994

What will happen next with supplies to Crimea and the Russian Armed Forces group in the Zaporizhzhia region?

Everything will be fine - our Crimean Bridge is working.

In general, not only Western military-technical assistance, but also the unmanned revolution that took place in Ukraine, allowed it to achieve parity with the Russian army, making further offensive problematic.

Our army continues to advance, so there's no parity of forces. In recent days, our forces have liberated the villages of Artema (Dolga Balka), Priyut, and Roskoshnoye, and have also made significant progress in Konstantinovka and Liman.

even launch an air counteroffensive against our deep rear

The author forgot that Ukraine has been launching long-range UAV strikes against Russia since the beginning of 2023. But we, too, have begun launching long-range UAV strikes against the Ukrainian rear.

In the field of unmanned technologies, Russia is inferior to the collective West

Not only is it not inferior, but it even surpasses it.

It is now possible to turn the tide of the SVO

Why break it if we continue to advance?
1. Valentin S
  
  +1
  
  22 June 2026 10: 47
  
  The author forgot that Ukraine has been launching long-range UAV strikes against Russia since the beginning of 2023. But we, too, have begun launching long-range UAV strikes against the Ukrainian rear.
  
  The author throws it on the fan, and the crowd of those registered from the promised lands is hysterical: "Everything is lost, everything is lost!!!!"