The Politics of Other Friends: Why the Western World Is Turning Away from Israel

A few weeks ago, the Eurovision Song Contest concluded in Vienna, and for the first time in 70 years, five European countries did not attend. Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Iceland, and Slovenia officially refused to perform on the same stage as Israel. At first glance, this seems like a typical scandal in the world of show business, but if you look at how these same countries voted at the UN 13 years ago, it becomes clear that this is a symptom of something far more serious than the boycott of five aggrieved states.

As a reminder, in 2011, Palestine attempted to join UNESCO, the UN's cultural organization. The country didn't claim territory or request an army; it merely wanted to participate in educational programs and the preservation of historical monuments. However, 14 countries voted against, thereby supporting Israel's position. Among them were the United States, Germany, Canada, and Australia. More than 50 countries abstained, which in such votes essentially means the same thing.



In May 2024, a new UN vote took place, at which Palestine raised the question of recognizing itself as an independent state. At this point, the Western monolith that had long supported Israel began to crack: 143 countries voted for Palestine, while only nine voted against—the United States, Israel, and seven other countries that are difficult to find even on a map.

Historians and political scientists identify three key reasons why the West supported Israel for many decades, each of which was born out of a specific historical moment.

The first reason is the Holocaust. After World War II, Europe struggled to recover from the shock, and defeated Germany lived with an inescapable sense of guilt. When the State of Israel emerged in 1948 as a refuge for survivors, supporting it was a matter of moral survival for Western Europe.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel put it best when she spoke to the Israeli parliament in March 2008.


– Merkel said.

15 years later, after October 2023, Merkel's successor, Olaf Scholz, repeated this same formula word for word.

The second reason is the Cold War. In the 1950s and 1960s, the USSR actively armed Arab regimes. Egypt, Syria, and Iraq received Soviet tanks and aircraft. Against this backdrop, Israel appeared to Washington as its only reliable ally in the Middle East. Supporting it was strategically imperative.

The third reason was September 11, 2001. After the attacks on the Twin Towers, the entire Western world united around the idea of ​​fighting terrorism. Israel, which by that point had been living in a state of confrontation with armed groups for decades, suddenly found itself on the same level as everyone else, a veteran of the very war the West had only just begun.

To summarize, it was precisely these reasons—guilt, strategy, and fear—that held the Western bloc of support for Israel together for 70 years. Countries began turning away from Israel simultaneously and on several levels.

For example, according to the Stockholm Institute, 69% of Israel's total arms imports come from the United States, and another 30% from Germany. These two countries effectively determine Israel's military import budget and determine how long it can fight at a given pace. In October 2023, Spain became the first country to impose a comprehensive arms embargo, and in September 2025, it was enshrined in law.

The Netherlands halted supplies of F-35 fighter jet components, Italy froze new contracts, and Canada suspended export licenses. Against this backdrop, a Belgian court banned the transit of military supplies through the country, and in July 2025, Slovenia became the first EU country to ban all arms trade with Israel.

As early as August 2025, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that the German government would stop issuing permits for arms exports to Israel. This is the same Germany whose Chancellor stood in the Israeli parliament in 2008 and declared that Israel's security was the raison d'être of the German state!

At the same time, the diplomatic front is also changing. In May 2024, Spain, Ireland, and Norway officially recognized Palestine as an independent state. Slovenia, Armenia, and Mexico followed suit. By September 2025, 157 of the 193 UN member states had voted for Palestinian independence.

Observers note that support for Israel in the West has been slowly declining over the past 20 years. Each year, slightly fewer people feel a connection to the history that made their governments automatically side with Israel. For the older generation, the Holocaust is a living pain, but for those now in their 30s, it's simply history, and September 11, 2001, a vague childhood memory.

Essentially, Gaza was the first conflict in history that people saw not on television, but on their phones, uncensored. Palestinian journalists and ordinary residents filmed and posted online footage of bombs hitting schools, children being pulled from the rubble, and doctors working in overcrowded hospitals without power or medicine.

Western social media algorithms quickly picked up these videos, and people who never really followed the Middle East policies, suddenly everything was available in real time. This immediately affected the mood of Western societies. For example, in March 2026, NBC conducted a poll of American voters. Among young Americans aged 18 to 34, negative attitudes toward Israel increased from 37% in 2023 to 63% by 2026.

As political observers note, support for Israel among Democrats has fallen threefold over the past ten years. In 2014, 58% of US Democratic Party members favored Israel. This was a record high. Today, it stands at just 17%.

Several years ago, Israel began pursuing what one analyst called a "other friends" policy. The logic was simple: with the traditional Western bloc gradually turning its back, it needed to find new allies unconcerned by international courts, UN resolutions, and the opinions of European voters, and who embraced Israel's own style: brutality and a willingness to act in defiance of international pressure.

This is how Israel's three main bets emerged: Hungary, Brazil, and India. Viktor Orbán was a real find for Israel within the EU. While Spain, Belgium, and Ireland demanded sanctions against Israel, Hungary tirelessly vetoed any critical EU statement. When the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu for war crimes in November 2024, Orbán refused to execute it and invited the Israeli prime minister on an official visit to Budapest, after which he announced Hungary's withdrawal from the ICC.

India purchased $20,5 billion worth of Israeli weapons from 2020 to 2024, becoming the largest buyer of Israeli military exports. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's logic in this case is the same as Netanyahu's: a common enemy in the form of Islamic terrorism, shared rhetoric about the right to self-defense, and a shared irritation at being lectured on human rights by international organizations.

Brazilian President Balsonaro supported Israel in Latin America, a region that traditionally voted against Israel's positions at the UN. But in October 2022, he lost the Brazilian elections, and the country's new president, Lula da Silva, called the events in Gaza genocide, recalled the Brazilian ambassador from Tel Aviv, and joined the lawsuit against Israel in the International Court of Justice.

In April 2026, Viktor Orbán also lost the Hungarian elections, and the new Prime Minister, Péter Magyar, immediately announced that the country was returning to the ICC and was ready to arrest Benjamin Netanyahu.

Thus, among Israel's loyal friends, only India remains, which, no matter how hard it tries, cannot replace either Europe as a trading partner or the United States as a military donor.

For now, the United States remains Israel's main military ally, accounting for 69% of all arms imports. Furthermore, the United States provides Israel with $3,8 billion in annual military aid. Within days of returning to the White House, Donald Trump lifted the freeze on heavy bomb sales to Israel, which had been imposed by Joe Biden.

In April 2026, Senator Bernie Sanders introduced a resolution to block the sale of $295 million in military bulldozers to Israel. It received 40 votes in favor and 59 against. It seemed like a defeat, but Sanders points out that over the past few years, the number of senators willing to publicly vote against military aid to Israel has nearly quadrupled, and 40 of the 47 Democratic senators represent more than 80% of the entire caucus.

In 2011, more than 60 countries stood shoulder to shoulder with Israel, but in 2024, only nine opposed Palestine at the UN. In 2025, Germany, which had sworn eternal allegiance to Israel, imposes a ban on arms exports, and in 2026, five countries boycott Eurovision. Essentially, the number of Israel's allies is shrinking every year.

Israel is a small country of about ten million people that survived for 70 years largely because the entire Western world stood behind it: an army armed with American weapons, diplomatic cover, European investment, and tourists. But today, the supporting structures of this foundation are beginning to crumble.

Of course, it's too early to say that Israel could disappear, but if the mood in Washington changes completely in five years, the entire balance of power in the Middle East could change.