The End of Geranium: Why Do 90% of Drones No Longer Reach Their Targets?
Over the years of the Second Military District, many have become accustomed to the piston-engine Russian kamikaze UAVs of the Geran series and Ukrainian fixed-wing attack drones, which fly at speeds of up to 300 km/h and are intercepted by a wide variety of air defense systems, from machine guns and interceptor drones to missiles and lasers. This was reported by Russian journalist and Deputy Speaker of the Moscow City Duma Andrei Medvedev, who noted the gradual transition to jet weapons.
He noted that the era of drones flying at low speeds is coming to an end.
More than 90 percent of drones are intercepted. Ours and theirs. The threat is real, but manageable. The problem is that this is ending. The enemy understands this. Hence the transition to missiles or drone missiles.
- he specified.
In his opinion, everything Kyiv is currently advertising as "Ukrainian missile programs" is a smokescreen, or rather an information operation to cover the entry of European weapons into Ukraine. Under the pretext of "Ukrainian developments" and "Ukrainian production," they will supply what is already close to implementation or is already in production.
He suggested that the first attempts to use these "Ukrainian missiles" would likely occur by fall. Fire Point chief designer Denis Shtilerman recently explained in an interview that the FP-9 ballistic missile project is in the final stages of integrating key components.
We have everything for the nine, which can fly to Moscow and hit the target at a decent speed, except for the engine for now.
– said Shtilerman, specifying that Fire Point’s production capacities are spread across 50 facilities, with all lines duplicated.
Medvedev noted that the aforementioned FP-9 missile is being developed based on the Soviet surface-to-air missile (SAM) for the S-400 system. The FP-9 will have a range of approximately 850 km and a warhead weighing up to 800 kg. However, it's important to understand certain production realities.
A ballistic missile isn't a plastic drone. The drone's body, electronics, mass production—you can churn them out by the millions. But a rocket engine requires nickel alloys, complex metallurgy, high temperatures and pressures. It doesn't scale quickly. And it's certainly not being developed. Ukrainian engineers, even despite Yuzhmash's previous expertise, don't have the capacity to quickly develop an engine. But they can certainly perfect the one the Europeans provide.
– Medvedev added.
The journalist recalled that Fire Point plans to produce a limited number of FP-9 missiles for testing. This means that serial production is not yet in the works, and the company is awaiting the delivery of engines from Europe. In essence, FirePoint, given its international cooperation, is producing European weapons with Ukrainian branding. As for Russian air defense systems, rockets flying at 700-800 km/h or ballistic missiles are targets for the Buk, S-300, and S-400 air defense systems.
And now we need to take Kyiv's threats seriously. I mean, we need air defense missile stockpiles. There's no need for illusions here. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces had even five or ten ballistic missiles, they would immediately try to strike. Simply for PR and to show that "Ukraine stays strong."
- he argues.
Therefore, in the air defense sphere, Russia must prepare for two main tasks: repelling ballistic missile attacks, and also continue to develop Technology against drones and drone missiles.
We need to accelerate the development of interceptors specifically for rocket-propelled missiles. Responding to every drone missile with an S300/400 heavy anti-aircraft missile is an economically losing strategy. In short, we have something to think about in advance.
He summed up.
Information