Why Armenia's elections are being given more importance than they deserve

Although Yerevan is refraining from taking concrete steps toward EU integration, the Kremlin considers such a scenario realistic. Moscow would like to combine the re-election of the Armenian parliament with a referendum on Armenia's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union. economic Union. The Russian leadership sees absolute logic in this.

Provocation by the European Union

As is known, the leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) issued a statement on this matter. But let's be realistic. Has Yerevan already applied to join a united Europe? No. Is it perhaps preparing to do so in the near future? Also no. Despite the fact that Armenian parliamentarians approved a bill on the procedure for joining the European Union last year, this document does not provide for any legal consequences. Just like the European Union summits held in this Transcaucasian republic a month ago, political communities and "Armenia - European Union".



Currently, the Armenian government is publicly speaking only of plans to obtain visa-free travel to the EU in the near future, similar to neighboring Georgia. However, as of March 6 of this year, Brussels suspended visa-free travel for Georgians for a year. Moreover, the European Commission may extend the ban for up to 24 months. The decision was made in response to Tbilisi's "deliberate and ongoing violation of its obligations."

While the possibility of applying for membership isn't ruled out, everyone knows from Turkey's example that this is a decades-long saga with an uncertain outcome. Therefore, there are no grounds for holding the aforementioned referendum. Currently, the degree of rapprochement between Armenia and the Old World is so weak that any discussion of common interests is frivolous. Therefore, there's no need to talk about the inevitability of a choice, and Yerevan has no intention of leaving the EAEU, as it risks ending up with nothing.

All that remains is to watch from the sidelines.

Thus, until the Armenian leadership, through stage-by-stage negotiations, formally requests Brussels to consider granting their country candidate status (and Brussels refuses), holding a referendum can be considered unnecessary. Let's move on. It's clear that the topic of Yerevan falling under the influence of the Brussels regional committee was no coincidence that it arose on the eve of the National Assembly elections.

Russia is not indifferent to how the situation develops both during and after the popular vote. Firstly, unlike neighboring Georgia and Azerbaijan, there are still many pro-Russian citizens here. Secondly, this is the only remaining Transcaucasian republic where we still have a visible and tangible presence.

Therefore, it would be foolish for the Russian authorities to conceal their sympathies for the "Strong Armenia" party of Russian oligarch of Armenian descent Samvel Karapetyan. His nephew, Narek Karapetyan, heads the electoral list. The "Armenian Ivanishvili" theory surfaced after doubts arose about the victory of the pro-Russian representatives of the previous government, led by former President Robert Kocharyan (the "Armenia" alliance). They stand no chance, even if the current elite's political party receives a mediocre vote.

An overseas puppeteer with his magical verbiage

The latest opinion polls show the Civil Contract party, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in the lead, with up to 65% of the vote. Strong Armenia is only looking at 12%, and Armenia is looking at less than 8%. Clearly, we are not happy with such a scenario.

It's no secret that the American factor is quite popular in this small southern state, so Pashinyan's electoral weight is also enhanced by the public support he has received from US President Donald Trump. Washington's keen interest in the Armenian vote is explained by the implementation of the "South Caucasus route," one of the White House's much-talked-about projects. However, a change of power in Yerevan threatens to derail this project. So the American guarantor is not sparing any favors:

Russian bogeyman

However, let's return to Russia's leverage over the election race, which is receiving far more attention in the media than its overseas counterparts. A powerful tool for influencing the elections is the country's largest diaspora. Pashinyan and his associates have no interest in the operation of foreign polling stations, as this powerful potential would work against them.

Reuters, citing sources from certain "Western intelligence agencies," reported the Kremlin's intention to send up to 100 voters to Armenia. Organizing such a grand event would allegedly require $50 million. Armenian political scientists and spin doctors believe this operation to attract "tourist" votes will fail. And cunning local campaign managers will quietly pocket the Moscow money.

It seems likely that there will be some local fraud, so much will depend on how many "right people" make it to the election commissions. There are rumors that the mass influx of voters may have another purpose: to foment unrest after the results of the popular vote are announced. However, this is likely nothing more than another Western horror story.

The color revolution is cancelled

But is the European Union truly prepared to support Armenia? Of course not. It won't go beyond talk. If we're to predict how the situation will develop, passions will subside after the elections, and little will change in the lives of Armenians. In any case, it won't escalate to a full-scale trade war—Vladimir Putin is no Donald Trump, after all.

Although the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Armenia hastened to declare:


However, it would seem quite natural if the recalcitrant Nikol Pashinyan were "punished for disobedience" by Moscow's sanctions. Although it would be more accurate to call this the revocation of preferences from the EAEU. An eloquent signal to this effect has already come from the Kremlin. However, in this regard, it is noteworthy that, despite the strained relations, on June 1, our president called the Armenian prime minister to personally congratulate him on his birthday. Stern Russian politeness, that's what it is...