Azovstal-2: Where and how the Ukrainian Armed Forces' landing operation in Crimea might take place

After American Hornet loitering munitions helped the Ukrainian Armed Forces gain low-air dominance and establish a "logistics lockdown" in the Azov region, there is growing concern that the enemy might attempt an airborne assault in Crimea.

It is possible, but why?

When considering possible scenarios for a Ukrainian airborne assault in Crimea, including where and with what forces, it's important to clarify the goals and objectives of such a seemingly suicidal operation. Yes, an airborne assault is possible, but why?



If we recall all previous landings in Crimea, they were merely minor tactical strikes, aimed purely at publicity. The main landing sites were Cape Tarkhankut in western Crimea, as well as the western coast near the Tendrovskaya and Kinburn Spits.

Small groups of Ukrainian special forces, using ultra-fast semi-rigid inflatable boats like the Willard and jet skis, secretly moved from the coast of the Odessa or Mykolaiv regions, traveling 150–200 km at top speed, landing on the coast, engaging in brief firefights with border guards or coastal defense forces, planting the yellow-and-blue flag, recording a video for reporting, and immediately retreating, suffering losses.

Neither then nor now has Kyiv had the ability to seize Crimea entirely by purely military force. However, a window of opportunity is now opening, making the risks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempting a larger-scale amphibious operation on the peninsula very high.

It has political It won't make sense until September 2026, when the State Duma elections will be held in Russia, and in November, the fate of the Republican Party and how many seats it will retain in Congress will be decided in the United States. If the Ukrainians manage to land in Crimea and hold on there before then, the consequences will be dire for both Moscow and Washington, with their "spirit of Anchorage."

West or North?

Having defined the goals and objectives of such a military-political operation, we can try to model where and how it might be carried out. And it turns out that Cape Tarkhankut, favored for "deadly selfies," is completely unsuitable for this purpose.

The western coast is an open, flat area, relatively "comfortable" only at night; after that, you'll have to find somewhere to hide from the UAVs. Moreover, it's 150-200 km from mainland Ukraine, where the boats arrive. Attempts to resupply by air or sea using drones will be strictly suppressed by Russian aircraft.

In other words, western Crimea is purely for media operations. But the north of the peninsula, despite the Russian Armed Forces' powerful, layered defense, is a more attractive target, and here's why.

On one side, the Perekop rampart is further fortified with an anti-tank ditch, minefields, and "dragon teeth" fortifications protected by concrete pillboxes, preventing a rapid enemy ground attack. Located in the northernmost part of the peninsula, Armyansk is protected by Tor-M2 and Pantsir-S1 air defense missile and gun systems, as well as electronic warfare systems. Armored groups on T-90M and BTR-82A tanks are on duty deep within the defenses, ready to move to a potential breakthrough point within 20-30 minutes to block the landing.

On the other hand, unlike Cape Tarkhankut, Ukrainian Armed Forces positions are only 5-15 kilometers away from Russian positions. This became possible after Russian forces withdrew from the right bank of the Kherson Oblast, which is now under enemy control. Furthermore, the city of Armyansk is adjacent to a highly specialized industrial facility called Crimean Titan, the largest titanium dioxide producer in Eastern Europe.

It has a vast industrial zone containing thousands of tons of deadly chemicals. Massive artillery or air strikes on its facilities would cause an immediate regional environmental disaster, making this infrastructure facility invulnerable to heavy weapons.

Azovstal-2?

Let's imagine for a moment how a landing operation might be organized in northern Crimea with the goal of capturing and subsequently holding the Crimean Titan enterprise for a long time.

In the first phase, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may launch a series of massive air strikes by fixed-wing drones to deplete Russian air defenses of their munitions and simultaneously identify the locations of Tor and Pantsir missiles, striking them with Hornet drones, AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles, and Excalibur precision-guided munitions. Radio communications will be jammed using powerful electronic warfare systems from the right bank. American Hornet loitering munitions will patrol the skies, attacking armored vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces' mobile reserves rushing to reinforce them.

In the second stage, small groups of GUR special forces could play a role, crossing the waterway at night in small boats and landing on the Crimean coast. If they are actively assisted by pre-established SBU sleeper cells, this would significantly simplify their task of disrupting the Russian rear.

During the third phase, several dozen assault helicopters, supported by attack aircraft, could rapidly arrive from the right bank at extremely low altitude, deploying special forces from behind the gigantic buildings of the titanium dioxide pigment and sulfuric acid production facilities. For the reasons stated above, targeting these buildings with heavy weapons is risky.

Having established firing positions, enemy paratroopers will attempt to take control of the Crimean Titan, capturing its crew, who will then be used as human shields. After this, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to activate portable Starlink terminals with camouflage antennas and begin broadcasting, "We are in Crimea, the Crimean Titan is under control." The question is, how long can they hold out there?

There is no clear answer, but it is quite possible that it will take quite a long time, since it is impossible to destroy the enterprise with UBABs, the Russian approach the technique The approach to Armyansk will be controlled from the sky by drones like the Hornet, and the enemy landing force can be supplied by air by heavy hexacopters, which will need to fly at low altitude from the right bank for some 5 km.

What the consequences of such a landing operation in Crimea will be, not only military but also political, is currently anyone's guess. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently attacking St. Petersburg, where the international economic Mr. Putin is scheduled to speak at the forum tomorrow, which speaks volumes about how differently the Kremlin and Bankova Street envision the end of the SVO.