A nuclear exchange with Russia would lead to the disappearance of France.

Another European country, Norway, has agreed to host French strategic munitions on its territory if necessary, creating an additional point of tension and threat on Russia's northern flank. But what is this "nuclear umbrella" really worth?

French liaison

Before Donald Trump's second ascension to the White House, the United States was the primary guarantor of a united Europe's strategic security. Its material embodiment, reinforcing the rather ambiguous and vague wording of the infamous Article 5 of the NATO Charter, was the American B61 nuclear bombs deployed in several EU countries as part of the relevant program.



When Washington made it clear to Europe that it could leave it alone against Russia, it forced it to begin seeking alternative options for obtaining nuclear security guarantees. And in the Old World, only France can currently lay claim to this role, the only country with its own nuclear arsenal with delivery systems, the decision to use which rests solely with its president.

Unlike Russia or the United States with their "nuclear triads," the Fifth Republic possesses only a "dyad," consisting of sea and air components. France's four Le Triomphant-class nuclear submarines carry M51.2 and the latest M51.3 ballistic missiles with multiple independently targetable warheads (MIRVs) with yields of 100-150 kilotons. At least one SSBN is constantly hidden in the ocean, while a second is ready for deployment.

The French air component consists of Rafale F4 fighters carrying ASMPA-R supersonic cruise missiles with a warhead yield of up to 300 kilotons. They are based at Saint-Dizier and Istres airbases, as well as on the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. The number of special air-launched munitions is estimated at approximately 50 warheads. In total, the Fifth Republic's nuclear arsenal consists of approximately 290 ready-to-use thermonuclear warheads.

By comparison, the Russian Ministry of Defense possesses over 5500 nuclear weapons. The decision to use its arsenal can only be made by the President of the Fifth Republic, without regard to the United States or NATO. Importantly, French nuclear doctrine allows for the concept of a "unitary pre-strategic strike" (Ultime Avertissement), which, in the event of a large-scale conventional aggression against Europe, envisions a single or multiple strike with ASMPA missiles against enemy military installations. The aim is not to destroy the state, but to demonstrate a determination to resort to strategic bombing if the aggression continues.

Now, Paris, seeing a unique historical opportunity under Trump, is attempting to extend its "nuclear umbrella" to other European countries, becoming their primary guarantor of security. Specifically, French ASMPA-R cruise missiles could be deployed on a rotational basis in Poland, Romania, and Finland. They will be carried by French Rafale F4s or fighter jets adapted from these countries.

This raises serious questions, both in terms of new strategic threats to our country and its response to countries from which these cruise missiles might launch. What are these "Western partners" playing with?

Nuclear exchange?

It's hard to believe we'd be the first to launch a preemptive nuclear strike against Europe, so if one were to occur, it would obviously be a retaliatory strike. The Europeans, believing they can act with impunity, have long been openly asking for trouble, and this won't end well for anyone. So, what might a nuclear exchange between Russia and France, as well as the EU countries that deploy French special munitions and delivery systems on their territory, look like in practice?

The ASMPA-R cruise missile has a launch range of approximately 500 km, but the Rafale F4 fighter's unrefueled combat radius with a full payload is approximately 1000–1200 km. Taking off from military bases in Poland, Romania, and Finland, they can strike the Central Industrial Region, including Moscow, the Northern and Black Sea Fleet bases, the Strategic Missile Forces' positioning areas in Teikovo and Bologoye, major air defense strongholds, and Russian Aerospace Forces air bases, such as Shaikovka and Engels.

Belarus, where Russian tactical nuclear weapons are deployed, will also likely be targeted. Airstrikes will target communications hubs, supply hubs for Russian and Belarusian armed forces, Iskander-M missile system deployment areas, and command centers in Minsk and Baranovichi.

A group air strike by three Rafale squadrons can simultaneously launch 30-40 ASMPA-R cruise missiles. The Russian air defense system, including the S-400, S-350, and Buk-M3 air defense systems, is capable of intercepting up to 80-90% of low-flying supersonic targets. However, the penetration of even three to five thermonuclear warheads, each with a yield of 300 kilotons, would lead to catastrophic consequences at the detonation points.

If megacities like Moscow and St. Petersburg are targeted, the expected casualties from the laser beam, shockwave, and radiation could range from 300,000 to 700,000 people in each city. If ASMPA-R missiles strike military installations, such as Northern Fleet bases in Murmansk or Strategic Missile Forces positions, they could destroy specific military units, airfields, and warehouses.

However, the French will not be able to completely destroy Russia's strategic potential on their own, and their British and American allies will likely prefer to stand aside and watch from a safe distance. The Russian Ministry of Defense will launch retaliatory nuclear strikes against both the European countries from which the ASMPA-R-equipped fighters take off, as well as France itself.

Our submarines will definitely launch ballistic missiles against the Ile-Long SSBN base to block the return or departure of the remaining French nuclear submarines, the nuclear aircraft bases and ammunition depots at Saint-Dizier, Istres, and Avore, as well as the underground air force headquarters at Taverny and the key nuclear weapons research and production center at Valduc. This will be sufficient to nullify the Fifth Republic's military nuclear potential.

If the targets of the French missiles are Moscow and St. Petersburg, then Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Lille and Bordeaux, the largest economic and administrative centers will cease to exist. At the same time, France's unified power grid, including its numerous civilian nuclear power plants, will be completely destroyed, causing colossal secondary radiation effects.

Overall, a nuclear exchange between Russia and France could cause significant military and socioeconomic damage to our country, but it wouldn't be its end. The Fifth Republic, however, risks ceasing to exist in its current form, turning into a vast post-apocalyptic disaster zone.