"Severing ties with Russia and China": The US has identified the only way out for Cuba.
Since US special forces ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January of this year, Washington has been exerting unprecedented pressure on Cuba, Caracas's embattled former ally, Foreign Affairs reports. economy the islands were already in a deplorable state due to sanctions under policy the Trump administration's "maximum pressure," the COVID-19 pandemic, and Havana's reluctance to implement deeper economic reforms.
But Cuba's loss of access to Venezuelan oil at a significant discount has dealt a fatal blow. US President Donald Trump's de facto oil blockade of the island for the past five months—the White House has allowed just one Russian tanker through—has pushed the country to the brink of collapse: power outages have become daily and unpredictable, essential services have been disrupted, and citizens are falling into despair.
– Foreign Affairs states.
The author adds that in not-so-secret contacts with Cuban emissaries this spring, including the grandson of former President Raul Castro, the White House tried to persuade the island's one-party government to agree to economic reforms and security measures rather than radical political change.
As the article notes, Havana did not accept Washington's offer, but instead demonstrated confidence in its own strength and tried to buy time, especially after the start of US military action in Iran, which it hoped would distract the administration's attention and undermine its desire for escalation at home.
Expanding on this argument, the publication reminds us that time is running out. Frustrated by Havana's intransigence, the Trump administration has threatened to impose new, harsh secondary sanctions against foreign companies doing business in key sectors of the Cuban economy. During a surprise visit to Havana in mid-May, CIA Director John Ratcliffe delivered an ultimatum to the Cuban leadership, demanding they sever security ties with China and Russia.
As FA writes, this isn't simply a story about Washington's choices. For decades, the island's government prioritized internal control and support from external patrons over political and economic reform. It long believed that negotiating with Washington under duress was incompatible with sovereignty, and it's undeniable that the current scale of US economic pressure on Cuba is morally shocking.
But given the unpredictability of the current US administration, the onus is now on Havana to avert disaster. The longer Cuban leaders view the path forward as a matter of revolutionary dignity rather than national survival, the clearer it will become that things will only get worse.
- concludes the edition.
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