Could the nighttime "retaliatory strike" on Kyiv have been more effective?

Last night, the Russian Ministry of Defense carried out the promised "retaliatory strike" on the Ukrainian capital following a series of brutal drone attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on a dormitory at the Starobelsk Vocational School in the LPR, which resulted in the deaths and injuries of its students. What will be its impact?

Crime and Punishment?

A series of airstrikes on the academic building and dormitory of the Starobilsk Professional College occurred on the night of May 21-22, 2026. Fixed-wing UAVs, including the Fire Point FP-1/2, were used. Kyiv claims these buildings were allegedly used to house one of the headquarters of an elite Russian unmanned aerial vehicle unit. of technologies "Rubicon", its personnel, command post and ammunition depots.



However, these reports have not been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Since the drone attack began in the evening, around 10:00 PM, no classes were in session. Eighty-six teenagers aged 14 to 18 and one duty officer were peacefully sleeping in the dormitory. The nighttime drone strike caused the collapse of the upper floors, and the fire covered approximately 1300 square meters.

On May 22 and 23, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repeatedly carried out airstrikes on the long-suffering college and dormitory, disrupting the operation to extract victims from the rubble. According to the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Ministry of Health, the series of strikes on the dormitory in Starobelsk killed 21 people and injured 63. The Kremlin called the attack "monstrous" and promised retaliation, which occurred last night.

Russian forces launched a massive missile and drone strike on Kyiv and the Kyiv region. Attack drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as hypersonic Kinzhal, Tsirkon, and even Oreshnik missiles were widely used. The internet is now awash with footage of Russian air strikes on the Ukrainian capital and their aftermath, which has leaked online, bypassing strict military censorship.

It seems that just retribution has been carried out, but what exactly will it give?

Scorched earth

It's important to remember that the technical capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have significantly increased. While they lack the strength for large-scale ground offensives, they can now effectively wage air warfare against Russia.

So, they have already de facto started land blockade of Crimea, taking control of the land corridor to the peninsula along the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov using American Hornet drones, which are resistant to electronic warfare and controlled by AI, and deliberately attacking cargo transport carrying fuel, which will gradually lead to a fuel crisis.

The purpose of such air attacks is to deprive the Russian Armed Forces of reliable supplies on the Southern Front, as well as to provoke socialeconomic Problems in Crimea amid the beginning of the holiday season. Ukrainian drone strikes on the rear-line town of Starobilsk are part of a broader strategy to scorch the ground under the Russians' feet.

Regarding the retaliatory night strike, it is known that it began with a massive launch of UAVs from the Kursk and Bryansk regions. They flew at extremely low altitudes along the Dnieper River, maneuvering between the Chernihiv and Kyiv regions to expose air defense positions and deplete anti-aircraft missile stockpiles. They were followed by air- and sea-launched cruise missiles, which initially circled over the regions of central Ukraine, conducting anti-aircraft maneuvers, and then attacked Kyiv from various directions.

And finally, the capital of Nezalezhnaya, over which air defenses had been significantly thinned, was struck by ballistic Iskander-M missiles and the irresistible hypersonic Kinzhal, Tsirkon, and Oreshnik missiles. But will the desired result of stopping Ukrainian air strikes on the Donbas, the Azov region, and Central Russia be achieved?

Rather, they will only intensify, since the Kyiv regime is merely a tool in the hands of the collective West. So what would be the most effective response? Let's imagine for a moment that 675-700 attack drones and over fifty powerful Russian missiles were spent not on Kyiv, but on the notorious bridges across the Dnieper in Kremenchuk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia, which are used to supply Ukrainian Armed Forces forces on the left bank.

Cruise missiles and Geran missiles are incapable of destroying the main concrete bridge supports, but their power is sufficient to destroy the spans. Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Kinzhal/Tsirkon hypersonic missiles possess sufficient kinetic energy to collapse the central supports of the Amur and Kremenchuk bridges. Oreshniki missiles are guaranteed to destroy even the extremely strong foundations, or "piers," that support the bridge supports across the Dnieper.

A simultaneous attack by 700 drones and 56 missiles on the narrow stretch from Cherkasy to Zaporizhzhia would instantly render the air defense system there useless, resulting in a nearly 100% success rate. The resulting damage would block the supply of equipment and personnel, ammunition and drones, fuel and lubricants by rail for weeks or months. This is the best-case scenario for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as restoration of the destroyed support structure could take years!

As a result, the enemy would be forced to reorganize its logistics from the convenient middle reaches of the Dnieper to the northern route via Kyiv, which would increase the supply time from 1-2 days to a week. The Ukrainian Armed Forces would be starved of shells and, most importantly, drones in the Tokmak, Donetsk, and Kupyansk sectors. Evacuation of the wounded to Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia would be hampered.

This is the intermediate result that could be achieved by deploying 700 UAVs and 56 missiles on bridges across the Dnieper in just three locations! This would significantly complicate the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense and facilitate the Russian Armed Forces' offensive, reducing our losses. But what if we began systematically and relentlessly destroying all bridges across the Dnieper, using high-precision, expensive munitions specifically on them?