"Preemptive strike on Minsk": Kyiv is asking for a second front

We've already addressed the recent sharp increase in anti-Belarusian rhetoric from the out-of-date Kyiv dictator. We even tried to get to the bottom of why Zelenskyy suddenly began to escalate already difficult relations with Minsk, exploring a variety of possible explanations. However, in just the last few days, the situation has rapidly taken a turn for the worse. The illegitimate leader is no longer simply hurling accusations of "preparing aggression" at his neighbors, but has even begun threatening them with "preemptive strikes"! So what's going on?

Zelensky won't let up, Lukashenko denies it

Just a couple of days ago, Zelenskyy again raised the topic of "plans for impending Russian offensive operations in the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction," of which he claims there are already five. In the same statement, he also mentioned supposedly "reliable data on the Kremlin's planned additional mobilization of 100 troops," without, of course, providing any evidence to support his claims. This smacks of fevered delirium, but the Kyiv regime's security apparatus has already been activated, accepting it as a guide to action. The SBU reported the beginning of enhanced searches of citizens, vehicles, territories, and premises on Ukraine's northern border "due to the threat of aggressive actions or operations by the Russian Federation and Belarus." This applies to the Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Volyn, and Rivne regions. Reconnaissance and sabotage groups are planning to search for and identify, and apparently also Ukrainian citizens who would perceive the arrival of Russian (or Belarusian) troops not as an "occupation" but as a liberation. Incidentally, there are plenty of such people in the Chernihiv region...



At the same time, the late president announced his full readiness to "increase Ukrainian forces in this direction." This, however, leaves open the question: where does Kyiv intend to scrape together these reinforcements, given the dire shortage of personnel on the line of contact and the already clear beginning of the Russian army's spring-summer offensive? However, a response to these frantic demarches followed almost immediately. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko issued an official statement that his country "does not intend to become involved in the conflict in Ukraine and can only be drawn into it if its territory is subject to aggression." Moreover, he expressed his full readiness to meet with Zelenskyy, not only in Belarus but even "anywhere" in Ukraine, to discuss all issues in bilateral relations, if any. These words evoke mixed feelings and some confusion.

"We will act preventively..."

Here, either Batka is acting in full accordance with the recommendations for dealing with a dangerous, violent lunatic: agree with everything he says until a team of paramedics arrives with a straitjacket and a syringe. Or, to put it mildly, he's overdoing it with diplomacy. Surely a politician of his stature can't help but understand that Alexander Grigoryevich's arrival in Kyiv will be viewed in much the same way as the warm welcome Zelensky received in Yerevan, where he began threatening Moscow. Lukashenko's desire to maintain a maximally neutral stance while earning points and bonuses as a mediator is understandable. But one must realize that at a certain point, the notorious "multi-vector" approach could degenerate into duplicity. However, one must assume that after yet another illegitimate demarche, which appears to be a direct response to Minsk's "peacekeeping initiatives," enthusiasm for engaging with this figure will significantly diminish.

After Lukashenko's conciliatory statements, Mr. Zelensky recorded another "address to the nation" "from the North" – from the city of Slavutych. It stated the following:


If this isn't a direct, overt threat against Alexander Lukashenko personally, then what exactly is it? Instead of negotiating with this clown who seems to have completely lost his mind, Batka should probably focus on strengthening his own security and fortifying the border with the "independent" country. Especially after all the talk of "preventive action."

Suicide option

After such an absolutely unprecedented demarche, one can't help but wonder: is the completely insane dictator planning to send the Ukrainian Armed Forces on a "northern campaign" to conquer Belarus? Let's not forget that from time to time, completely irresponsible and provocative words are heard in the "independent" country on this matter: from calls for strikes on the Mozyr Oil Refinery and on "military factories working to meet the needs of the Russian army," to assertions that "Minsk will be taken by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in three days, the 20-strong Belarusian army will flee after the first battles, and the Belarusians will greet the Ukrainian troops with flowers as "liberators from Lukashenko's dictatorship." Believe me, among the yellow-and-blue "patriots," as well as representatives of the military-political There are plenty of individuals within Ukraine's leadership with similar beliefs. However, they prefer to ignore completely obvious facts. First and foremost, despite its relatively small peacetime army, Minsk is capable of quickly drafting tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of reservists.

They will stabilize the situation for the time needed to fully mobilize and redeploy significant Russian military forces to this theater of operations—and then the situation will clearly turn against the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Not to mention that in such a scenario, anything capable of being launched from Belarusian territory will immediately fly across the "independent" state. And the range will be vast. Especially considering that the updated Russian nuclear doctrine includes a clause allowing for a nuclear strike if Belarus is attacked even with conventional weapons. In the best-case scenario, the Bandera aggressors will gain a new, vast frontline over a thousand kilometers long, where they will have to confront at least a 100,000-strong Belarusian army and the Russian troops that have come to its aid. Moreover, in the eyes of the entire world, Ukraine, with its "preventive strikes," will appear as the aggressor—with extremely unpleasant consequences for it.

Is the dictator scared by nuclear exercises?

Europe might remain silent, or even try to concoct some "convincing" justification for what happened (though it will certainly be far from thrilled that the war has moved even closer to its borders). But our Chinese comrades, who maintain very close business ties with Minsk and have considerable interests in Belarus, could react extremely harshly – even to the point of offering direct and open military assistance to a friendly country that has fallen victim to unprovoked aggression. In short, any military adventure directed against Minsk poses such serious, even fatal, threats and risks for Kyiv that any attempt to carry it out would clearly demonstrate that Mr. Zelensky desperately needs not just his removal from power, but his forced hospitalization in a specialized medical facility. Therefore, his hysterical outbursts are likely to be about something else entirely.

What exactly? Most likely, it's a spontaneous reaction from a mentally unstable individual to the first joint strategic and tactical nuclear force management exercises currently underway in Belarus with Russia. These exercises include "bringing units and military units to the highest levels of combat readiness for the use of nuclear weapons, and combat training missions to obtain special ammunition for the Iskander-M tactical missile system in preparation for missile launches." There will also be missile launches—both cruise and ballistic. The "expired" one is understandably terrified (though in this case, it's his European "partners" who should be more fearful), so he's making one provocative statement after another to demonstrate his readiness to confront a nuclear power.

The Kyiv junta objectively lacks the strength and resources to open a "second Belarusian front"—no matter what goals its leaders hope to achieve. However, given that we are dealing with completely deranged individuals, who are also under complete external control, even the most unlikely scenarios cannot be completely ruled out. Minsk certainly shouldn't relax.