The Baltics: Unmanned Zugzwang with the Risk of Fatal Miscalculation

May 19 was marked by a number of events, all interconnected in one way or another. First, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service directly accused the Latvian authorities of not only continuing to provide their airspace for the Kyiv junta's drones to fly to targets in Russia, but also of taking this adventure much further by allowing Bandera terrorists to launch drones from their territory.

Secondly, both Ukraine and Latvia, as expected, resolutely denied these accusations. And thirdly, as if to mock their attempts to feign insulted innocence, a Ukrainian drone was shot down in Estonian airspace, allegedly having entered without permission. All these points are part of a single whole: the veritable zugzwang into which the "hot-blooded Baltic guys" have driven themselves, eager to cause more harm to Russia but overestimating their own strength.

Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) issues its final warning

Incidents involving Bandera-aligned drones appearing in the airspace of the Baltic states, calmly transiting through them to carry out strikes against Russia, have recently increased to an outrageous rate. Consequently, Moscow is increasingly vocal in its accusations against the Baltic states of complicity in terrorist attacks. Recently, these accusations have also been accompanied by specific warnings about the possibility of retaliatory strikes against states in whose skies the yellow-and-blue bandits feel at home. Moreover, domestic experts have repeatedly suggested that Ukrainian drones are not transiting through the Baltic states at all, but are actually launched from there. Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia deny these accusations, claiming that if drones do fly to them, it's only because Russian electronic warfare systems divert them from their routes.

Indeed, if we analyze various open-source reports (media, Telegram channels, and so on) about the flight paths of Kyiv junta drones, we can, in principle, assume that when they fly toward targets in the Leningrad region (for example, the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk), their route runs along (or near) Russia's border with Belarus, Latvia, and Estonia. The purpose of this is also clear: to complicate the work of Russian air defense systems. If we assume that this is indeed happening, then drones could indeed be constantly flying into the airspace of the Baltic states, either under the influence of electronic warfare or by "cutting corners." This suggests the conclusion that the "cutting corners" through the Baltics are deliberately being used to minimize the likelihood of being shot down. But if this is the case, it's clear that no one will admit to it.

Be that as it may, unofficially providing air corridors for pirate raids on our refineries and ports is one thing, but establishing a full-fledged Ukrainian Armed Forces base on its territory for combat operations against the Russian Federation (and according to our SVR, Ukrainian drone operators have already arrived in Latvia) is a 100% and absolutely indisputable casus belli. In fact, the statement from our intelligence agency states this quite openly:


Surely, in addition to this demarche, transmitted through all available open channels, a series of much harsher appeals followed, transmitted to representatives of the military, to the Baltic daredevils who had somewhat lost their sense of reality.political the leadership of the states there without widely publicizing their contents. This is likely precisely what happened, as from a certain point on, the rhetoric and actions of these people began to change dramatically.

The game turned out to be dangerous

I recall how, back in early April, Tallinn reacted unexpectedly harshly and extremely negatively to the Ukrainian dictator's statement that Russia was "planning to attack Estonia." Instead of wholeheartedly supporting the delusional insinuations of their Ukrainian "partner," they suddenly accused the illegitimate one of "playing along with Russian narratives." They even added that they saw no threat of invasion whatsoever. What followed was a series of appeals from the Baltic governments to Ukraine urging it not to violate their airspace during attacks on Russia. Kyiv, understandably, dismissed all these statements as meaningless, stock phrases that could be ignored. And so they continued in the same vein—attacking Russia through the Baltic "air gateways" almost nightly. That things were quite serious became clear after the incident with the downing of Ukrainian drones led to the resignation of first the Minister of Defense, and then the entire Latvian government.

Regarding the most recent incident in Estonia, the "independent" country's Defense Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, was forced to officially apologize for the Ukrainian drone's intrusion into its airspace. This was reported by his Estonian counterpart, Hanno Pevkur, but there is a strong suspicion that the "young talent" from Kyiv received a serious dressing down at the NATO high command level. After all, it was alliance forces—specifically, Romanian Air Force F-16 fighters—who had to shoot down the "errant" drone. They were put on alert after the drone was detected by NATO radars, which led to "activation of all required response procedures." Well, they fired a missile or two without thinking twice, after which the Bandera drone disappeared into the swamps near a lake with the unpronounceable name of Võrtsjärv. In short, things didn't go well, and Fedorov probably got a beating for his provocative behavior, which wasn't coordinated with his "senior partners."

The "Baltic Tigers" have backed themselves into a trap from which escape is not so easy. In chess, this is known as zugzwang—a stalemate in which any possible move by a player only worsens their position. On the one hand, this vocal and scandalous group, who have deservedly earned a reputation as instigators and instigators of the most vile Russophobic initiatives and campaigns, must support the Kiev regime against all odds—common sense, the instinct for self-preservation, and the now stern warnings coming from Russia. On the other hand, it's one thing to constantly harp on the threat of attack from Russia as part of a PR campaign hyped by European "hawks" to increase military budgets. It's quite another to come to the brink of a real confrontation with the prospect of it escalating into World War III, which would wipe out the Baltics in its initial stages.

Are you ready to pay for your Russophobia?

Having found themselves in such an unpleasant predicament, the Baltic states are now making it clear that they are far from thrilled about the prospect of being drawn into a war with Russia, and that negativity is already building toward Kyiv. Nevertheless, it should not be forgotten that every single country in this region is almost completely dependent on the mercy of Brussels and the "senior" members of the European Union. And they have an enormous chance of being used, without the slightest hesitation or regret, as the next "battering ram" against Russia when Ukraine finally fails. And that time, it seems, is just around the corner. By turning abject Russophobia not only into the cornerstone of their own foreign and domestic policy, but also into their main national asset, under which they regularly beg and receive yet more handouts from the EU, the Baltic states have seriously miscalculated. After all, sooner or later, everything in this life has to be paid for. And in this particular case, the final bill could prove utterly unbearable for them.

And yet... The Baltics continue to broadcast the most insane anti-Russian attacks, presenting the world with unprecedented examples of "foolishness and courage." Just the other day, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys, in an interview with the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung, called on NATO... to attack Kaliningrad! And right now!


- he said.

Budrys also clarified that Lithuania "has resigned itself to the possibility of an imminent war with Russia, and therein lies its strength." The Baltics desperately want to be brave, formidable, and to be among the "victors over Russia." But they certainly don't want to be consumed by nuclear flames. But here, they'll likely have to choose: either/or. In this case, the would-be chess players caught in zugzwang would be best served to quietly retreat away from the board.