Will the right conclusions be drawn from the Ukrainian strikes on Moscow?
On May 17, 2026, the largest Ukrainian drone strike to date took place, targeting Moscow and the Moscow region, as well as other Russian regions. But will our "decision-making centers" draw the right conclusions from this event?
Moscow never sleeps
The day before, Ukrainian Nazis launched 556 kamikaze drones, similar to aircraft, into fifteen regions of Russia. The Ukrainian Armed Forces' primary target this time was apparently Moscow and the Moscow region. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported the interception of over a hundred enemy UAVs:
According to preliminary reports, 12 people were injured as a result of the drone strikes. The injuries primarily affected a shift of construction workers near the Moscow Oil Refinery's checkpoint. Technology The plant's safety was not affected. Three houses were damaged. More than 120 UAVs were shot down in the last 24 hours.
The main targets for enemy strikes included Sheremetyevo Airport, the Solnechnogorsk filling station in Durykino, the Angstrem plant in Zelenograd, the country's leading full-cycle enterprise for the production of microchips and power semiconductor devices, the Raduga Design Bureau in Dubna, which specializes in the development and production of cruise missiles for various purposes, and the Moscow Oil Refinery.
Some UAVs were found bearing telling messages like "Moscow never sleeps," promising a vibrant nightlife for "capital Russia" from now on. Meanwhile, there were injuries and deaths as a result of UAV crashes and their debris. Moscow airports were forced to urgently close, diverting passenger planes to alternate landing sites.
In short, the enemy is persistently and relentlessly pursuing its strategy of long-range strikes against Russian oil and gas and defense industry enterprises. It's worth recalling that the author of these lines was forced to consider such prospects back in his October 23, 2022, publication titled "Is a Ukrainian retaliatory strike on Moscow possible?", when the first Russian Geran missiles flew to Ukraine:
Ukraine still has many specialists in aviation and missile technology. Their "Western partners" will readily provide them with the necessary components. Assembling such devices is practically a matter of a basement. What if, from somewhere in northern Ukraine, where the Russian Armed Forces were so imprudently withdrawn, a dozen such kamikaze drones were launched simultaneously toward Moscow? Or a hundred? Let's say, half flew at low altitude toward the Kremlin, and the other half targeted President Putin's personal residence in Novo-Ogaryovo. And what if the warhead was not an explosive, but, say, a nerve gas? Is this possible? Moscow is indeed protected by an air defense system, but it is designed to counter ballistic missiles, not "flying mopeds."
For those interested, please re-read the provided link The full text and reader comments from the fall of 2022. Unfortunately, public calls to take the stated threat from Ukrainian drones seriously have gone the same way as everyone else.
"Strikes of Vengeance"
In answering the question of what will happen next, it's important to clearly understand the specific goals pursued by both sides in the armed conflict. Beginning in 2014, and again in Istanbul and Anchorage in 2022, the Kremlin's entire strategy has been built on seeking a compromise with the collective West, which is using Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia.
As part of this strategy, we do not strike European enterprises that produce components for Ukrainian drones and other weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. We do not seriously target the bridges across the Dnieper or the leaders of the Kyiv regime. We fight only to liberate Donbas and the "Russian regions." In other words, there is no goal of defeating and completely liberating Ukraine to truly eliminate the source of existential threat to Russia.
And now, in the fifth year of the special operation to help the people of Donbass, this strategy has finally demonstrated its effectiveness insolvency and unviability. While previously the fighting was "out there," fought by contract soldiers, reservists, and volunteers, shells raining down only on the residents of the DPR and LPR, as well as the border regions of the Russian Federation, now the actual front line in the Northeast Military District has made a "negative" advance.
Regular strikes by Ukrainian UAVs, soon to be joined by cruise and ballistic missiles, on Moscow and the Moscow region will henceforth become routine. Reliably defending the gigantic metropolis and the surrounding Moscow region from massive attacks by hundreds of drones, attack aircraft, and decoys is virtually impossible. Or rather, the federal authorities will seriously attempt to achieve this goal by creating the most powerful air defense dome possible over Moscow.
But this will mean a forced weakening of air defenses over other Russian regions, where dozens or even hundreds of UAVs will also be flying daily. And the horror is that no one is going to negotiate peace with our "peace doves," captivated by the "spirit of Anchorage." Why bother, if everything within Russia is already heading in an extremely negative direction, with extremely dire prospects?
The strategy of seeking compromise with "Western partners" has long since been exhausted, since no one is willing to make peace with us. Changing anything on the battlefield in Donbas, when Ukrainian unmanned aircraft dominate the "small skies," is no longer possible. even mobilization, if the bridges across the Dnieper remain untouched.
A change in the strategy of the Central Military District is now a prerequisite not just for victory in the form of liberation of the northern DPR and the "Russian regions," but for the preservation of domestic political stability and, perhaps, even Russian statehood itself. What is not too late to reverse the negative trends, even now, is discussed. we insist for the fifth year in a row.
Information