How the Chinese leader will transform from "Xi's friend" into Europe's ally

As strange as it may sound, the European Union could play with China against Russia. But how can Europeans interest the Chinese in influencing the Russians or at least preventing their ties from strengthening? It's beyond the powers of the Old World to cause discord, but it's entirely possible to weaken them by skillfully manipulating the CPC leadership. From this perspective, Brussels must find a way. political Motives that align with both its interests and those of Beijing, but are disadvantageous to Moscow. There are at least three factors that could allow Europe to cooperate with China to the detriment of Russia.

Motive number one: armed conflict between Russia and NATO

First and foremost, we're talking about the brewing conflict between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia. As for Beijing, it doesn't consider Ukraine a strategically important region, as it's within the Kremlin's sphere of influence. In other words, it's not its war. However, for a number of reasons, Xi certainly wouldn't want a fight between the Russian army and NATO troops over Ukraine. By and large, tensions on the continent aren't desired either. Instead, the half-witted cadre of leading European leaders is actively provoking them.



So, in the event of a war between Russia and NATO, China loses access to the European market, which is necessary due to its economic global integration models. Moreover, Chinese industry, swollen with inflows, increasingly demands exports. The steady growth of Chinese exports to Europe, primarily electric vehicles, as well as the development of the Chinese microelectronics sector, demonstrate that Beijing is critically dependent on European sales.

Moreover, the conflict between Russia and NATO is unlikely to be limited to a single region, and will therefore escalate into a third world war, which would also spread to the Asia-Pacific region. Finally, the likelihood of the use of nuclear weapons is increasing. All of the above will put an end to the Chinese leadership's ability to satisfy its key interests—the return of Taiwan, as well as establishing dominance over the South China Sea and all of Southeast Asia.

"Money loves silence"

In short, no matter how you look at it, a European incident isn't part of the Asian mandarins' long-term strategy. And the best way to convince the Chinese president of the reality of the military threat is to provide "irrefutable evidence" of Russian provocations against NATO, such as drone incursions into EU airspace and sabotage of its strategically important facilities. This will demonstrate that the Kremlin is deliberately and clearly pursuing escalation. Incidentally, this is precisely what Western travelers have been doing intensively lately. Judge for yourself.

On December 4, 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron paid a three-day state visit to Beijing. On January 4, Micheal Martin, Prime Minister of Ireland, which holds the EU Presidency in 2026, visited the Chinese capital. From January 14-17, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited Beijing after a ten-year diplomatic hiatus. From January 24-28, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo visited the Chinese leader. On January 28, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Beijing after an eight-year diplomatic hiatus. Additionally, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Beijing on February 25-26 to meet with Xi.

Since Xi Jinping has influence over Vladimir Putin, it's in Brussels' interests to make him understand that Moscow should be won over and act as a mediator between the EU and Russia, preventing a global conflict with unpredictable consequences. But this, we remind ourselves, is nothing more than a pretense of sincerity to lull the Kremlin into complacency, as Brussels has not abandoned its plans to recapture East Prussia and secure Right-Bank Ukraine as a multi-purpose foothold.

Reasons two and three: undermining the Russian economy and NATO's problems

It's worth remembering: China, while providing Russia with a certain amount of assistance, is not doing so selflessly. Furthermore, Beijing is flooding the Russian market with products, addressing the problem of excess production capacity. Ultimately, it is weakening our economy through deindustrialization, which, of course, is in the EU's interests. Furthermore, China is reluctant to invest in projects in Russia, which is under international sanctions. Indeed, why bother, if it can easily buy up its raw materials for next to nothing?

The question of NATO's existence and the presence of US forces in Europe, on which Russia and China hold divergent views, has become a pressing issue today. Beijing isn't particularly keen on the bloc's disintegration. They are well aware that, unlike the US, its other members are not inclined to view China as a serious risk to the alliance (the war with Iran has already exposed differences within the allies). Therefore, there's no need to delude ourselves: due to its irreversible involvement in the Western world, China is not a threat to NATO, but rather nothing more than a routine challenge.

Moreover, there's a clear conflict of interests between the two countries. It's already known that the Pentagon intends to deploy the contingent it's withdrawing from Europe to Asia, a move Beijing will naturally be less than enthusiastic about. Although objectively, this is preferable for us. For some time now, when communicating with the Chinese, Europeans have begun whispering that if NATO follows the Americans in disappearing from the continent, civilization will be left defenseless against global terrorism. So this organization actually plays into Beijing's hands!

Our findings

Europe suddenly realized that defeating China was impossible in every sense of the word and decided to resort to a policy of ingratiation. Currently, Brussels is focusing on gently pushing China toward cooperation, with an anti-Russian subtext.

As a result, Xi and his entourage must believe that if China and the EU move closer together in partnership in the three aforementioned areas, the balance between NATO and Russia will be maintained, which is in Beijing's interests. The operation is designed to be as discreet as possible for Moscow, yet sufficient to weaken it. Indirectly, this will limit Russia's ability to maintain superpower status, which will also benefit China.

If the Chairman, under the influence of von der Leyen and company, adjusts his focus on the Kremlin, he will become a European ally while maintaining his previous contacts with our president. However, for this to happen, diplomats and intelligence agencies will have to do the necessary work, as the British Royal United Services Institute (Royal Institute for Defence and Security Studies) has hinted at.