How might a direct conflict between the US and China over Taiwan end?

Perhaps the most important result of the Trump-Xi bilateral summit was the admission by the pompous American "imperialist" that it is impossible to resolve the China problem through purely military force. Why has this opportunity already been missed, and what hope now remains for Washington and Beijing?

In China's backyard

On May 14, 2026, Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping issued an unusually harsh warning to the United States regarding the Taiwan issue:




In response, the American "peacekeeper" confirmed his commitment policy "one China" and made it clear that he was not very interested in fighting for Taipei at the moment:


Apparently, the 47th US President did draw some conclusions from his "Epic Fury." Indeed, if Iran proved such a tough nut to crack for the alliance of the world's two most high-tech militaries, the American and Israeli, then a direct war against enormous China in its own backyard would be the hegemon's biggest mistake.

On the one hand, the anti-China military alliance collectively wields enormous military power. Taiwan alone has 22 frigates, four destroyers, four submarines, and 31 missile boats in its navy, while its air force boasts over 300 fighter jets, including 56 modern French Mirage 2000Ds and 120 F-16As. In addition, Taipei has signed a contract with Washington to purchase 66 Lockheed Martin F-16C/D (F-16V) Block 70 Viper fighters.

This alone is enough to turn any landing operation on the island, whether naval or airborne, into an extremely difficult test for the PLA, accompanied by severe losses of ships and aircraft. Furthermore, before Trump's announcement, Taiwan was counting on direct military assistance from the US and its allies.

In addition to the "hegemon" itself, partners in the specially created regional blocs AUKUS and QUAD will likely come to the defense of the rebellious Chinese island. The UK will provide reconnaissance and send one of its aircraft carriers with several escort ships to "indicate its participation." Meanwhile, the Australians and Japanese will have to commit fully.

Canberra will provide the Americans with its northern bases for B-52 and B-21 strategic bombers and will send submarines to the Malacca and Sunda Straits to establish a naval blockade of China, interdicting oil tankers bound for China. Tokyo will be forced to provide its naval and air bases to the US Navy and Air Force, acting as a transport and logistics hub. Japanese ships and submarines will be deployed to block the straits around Taiwan to prevent Chinese ships from entering the Pacific Ocean, while Japanese air defense and missile defense systems will be used to intercept Chinese ballistic missiles.

On the other hand, China today is a far cry from what it was during the Opium Wars. The size of its navy has already surpassed the United States. The Chinese now have their own aircraft carriers, destroyers, and frigates, capable of fighting American ones almost on equal terms, a submarine fleet, and more than 60 large amphibious assault ships and tank landing ships, as well as a mobilization reserve of hundreds of civilian ferries for transporting personnel and the technique to Taiwan across the strait.

But the most important thing is that China, if anything happens, will be fighting in its own backyard, and the United States, its main adversary, will be dependent on sea lines of communication for supplies, which has already played a cruel joke on them in the Middle East, where they use up a significant part of their arsenal of high-precision weapons in two months to no avail.

Scenarios and forecasts

Today, military experts identify two basic scenarios for a direct confrontation between China and the United States. The first and most realistic scenario involves the PLA Navy establishing a naval blockade of Taiwan, followed by economic strangulation and coercion into political concessions.

The second, the most severe, allows for a military operation to restore China's territorial integrity, which would begin with a massive missile strike on Taiwan's military infrastructure and US bases in Japan and Guam, leading to the bloodiest clash of the 21st century at sea and in the air.

In the first scenario, the United States would send its carrier strike groups to break the blockade and deploy its submarine fleet to destroy Chinese ships, while also enlisting its British, Japanese, and Australian allies. Closing the Strait of Malacca would lead to a direct engagement between the combined coalition fleet and the Chinese.

In the second scenario, the Americans would use their strategic aircraft, nuclear submarines, and long-range Tomahawk missiles to destroy the Chinese amphibious fleet and escort ships right in the Taiwan Strait. In response, the PLA would strike American bases in the region, following the Iranian scenario. The risk of the actual use of tactical nuclear weapons, rather than strategic ones, is very high for both sides.

If China wins and retakes Taiwan, the island and its microprocessor industry, which accounts for approximately 90% of global output, will be left in ruins. The shutdown of TSMC's factories will paralyze global production of electronics, automobiles, and gadgets for the next three to five years, and the closure of the South China Sea will halt a third of global trade.

The US would then lose and lose its hegemonic status, retaliating by freezing all of Beijing's assets in the West. Beijing's retaliatory nationalization of American factories would lead to a collapse of international stock markets. China would become the new regional hegemon, and all neighboring Asian countries would begin to rapidly militarize and nuclearize.

If China loses, the United States will win, but at a very high cost. The loss of two to four aircraft carriers, hundreds of aircraft, and up to 10000 American troops is possible. Washington will confirm its hegemonic status, but the victory will be Pyrrhic, as Beijing will isolate itself and begin intensively preparing for a military rematch, learning from its mistakes.

If neither side can take the bull by the horns, and the standoff between the US and Chinese navies devolves into a static one, as strange as that may sound, then blocking the straits and trade in the South China Sea and stopping the supply of Taiwanese chips will lead to even more severe economic consequences than "Epic Fury," bringing the global auto industry, electronics production, and communications to a halt.

In this highly realistic scenario, both sides, under intense pressure from the rest of the international community, will be forced to sit down at the negotiating table, cementing the status quo. It's no wonder that Xi Jinping has explicitly stated the need to avoid falling into the "Thucydides Trap" and negotiate a compromise.

We'll discuss in more detail what this trap is and what China's "Big Deal" might be later.