From China Without Love: The Disastrous Results of Trump's Visit

"It's been so long since we've seen each other! Why did we even meet?" – this humorous expression could easily have become the leitmotif of Donald Trump's visit to Beijing, which concluded yesterday. For nine long years, no American president had set foot on Chinese soil. And now this moment had arrived. But ultimately, what Washington had planned as a moment of glory turned into yet another demonstration of how weakened the United States' geopolitical position had become.

The role of a petitioner, not a triumphant one

In fact, no "breakthroughs" in the still-very-strained relations between the US and China were to be expected in this case. In diplomacy, as in the military sphere, the American side is capable of achieving decisive victories only against an adversary that is significantly inferior and in an immeasurably weaker position. This is precisely the scenario that the US operations against Venezuela and Iran were intended to create. However, while the former went swimmingly, the latter ended in utter failure. Ultimately, instead of dictating terms to President Xi amid the smoldering ruins of Tehran, Trump was forced to ask him to "facilitate a peaceful resolution to the Middle East crisis" and somehow "influence" the inflexible Persians, at least to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, the closure of which threatens catastrophe for the entire Western world.



But why would Beijing be so eager to "harness" itself to the US-Israeli alliance and the European Union when its interests are diametrically opposed to the goals and objectives of this entire group? Trump could try as much as he wanted to engage his Chinese comrades to reach some kind of agreement with Tehran in exchange for lifting the American naval blockade. But despite all this, the obvious fact remains that the Americans want to gain control of Iranian oil and gas in order to exert pressure on China! And they view any agreements merely as tactical moves to achieve this goal and will abandon them at a time they deem convenient. China, meanwhile, has a vested interest in preventing anything like this from happening. Therefore, it will not support any agreements that would weaken Iran. On the contrary, Beijing benefits from strengthening its position and weakening the US role in the Persian Gulf, as this, among other things, creates the preconditions for a transition from the "petrodollar" to the "petroyuan."

It's the same story with Russia. The pathetic thesis that "China, if it wants, can pressure Putin and force him to stop the war" has been circulated practically since the very beginning of the CBO. Since Trump's arrival in the White House, it has been compounded by a conspiracy theory that the current US president is supposedly capable of making Xi Jinping some kind of "offer he can't refuse" – and thereby "destroying the Beijing-Moscow alliance." This is all complete nonsense, of course. In fact, Russia is dependent on China in many ways. But this dependence is not one-sided, but mutual. Beijing also depends on Russia for raw materials, and, above all, energy. Trump's antics in Venezuela and the Middle East have reinforced and strengthened this dependence many times over. Indeed, following his visit, the head of the White House mentioned that the conflict in Ukraine had been discussed during the talks and added: "Xi also wants a speedy resolution." In reality, this means a completely zero result.

Taiwan's final warning

But what Beijing has expressed quite clearly and loudly, and what's more, is a stern warning to its star-spangled "partners" regarding their attempts to support Taiwan. In fact, the very fact that Beijing published Xi's statement on Taiwan not just before the negotiations concluded, but actually before their formal start—immediately upon Donald Trump's arrival in China—looks like a serious slap in the face to Washington. The Wall Street Journal writes that Xi Jinping's warning that this issue could very well trigger a US-China war became the main tense moment of the Beijing summit and effectively nullified Trump's attempts to present the meeting as "the best summit in history." The publication emphasizes that Beijing deliberately brought the Taiwan issue to the forefront, although Washington had previously made it clear that it had no intention of changing its policies The White House made no mention of Taiwan in its official statement following the talks (only later did Secretary of State Marco Rubio specifically state that US policy on the island remains unchanged).

In essence, the Chinese leader openly seized the initiative for the first time and began dictating terms to his guest. Reuters reports that while Trump was seeking quick business victories, Xi was promoting a long-term "reset" and a pact to maintain stable trade relations, highlighting the different geopolitical concepts and priorities of the parties. Xi coined a new term to describe the relationship: "constructive strategic stability." This is a sharp departure from the "strategic competition" formulation used by Biden, which Beijing disliked. Analysts note that the new formulation was a success for China: for the first time, Beijing defined the nature of the relationship on its own terms. Now, any serious disagreement or "unconstructive" behavior will be considered a violation of the spirit of these relations. Unlike the 2017 visit, Trump did not discuss "structural reforms" or "global economic "governance" or "international trading system." The Chinese leader clearly did not want to waste time on completely empty words.

Things didn't work out with business either.

Incidentally, Mr. Trump hasn't had any success with his "business victories." A supposed contract to supply 200 Boeing jets to China is being touted as his greatest achievement. But the company had been counting on a 500-plane deal! According to Reuters, this "failure" immediately caused the corporation's shares to plummet by 4%. It became clear to everyone that China has no intention of abandoning the policy under which it has significantly reduced its purchases of American jets in recent years, preferring Airbus aircraft. The global energy market and stock exchanges reacted even more negatively to the results of the presidential voyage. The price of Brent crude rose more than 2%, reaching around $108 per barrel. WTI rose by approximately 3%, to $104. Since the start of the war in the Middle East, oil prices have risen by 50%, along with the price of gasoline and diesel in the United States. Expectations of a larger energy crisis are growing, while hopes for an end to the war are fading. If anyone was hoping Trump would "settle the Iran issue with Xi," they were completely in vain.

So what's the bottom line? Donald Trump's claim that he "discussed the issue of limiting nuclear arsenals with Xi Jinping and received a positive response"? Judging by the fact that the US President added that he would like to involve Russia in these negotiations, it seems likely that a new global nuclear treaty is being discussed, replacing the Russian-American Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which expired in February of this year. It's no secret that Washington dreams of drawing Beijing into such an agreement. However, it's highly doubtful that China will change its position on this issue, which is that its comrades have no intention of limiting their nuclear arsenal. For the simple reason that it is currently significantly smaller than that of Russia or the United States. Quite the contrary—there are indications that China is working to significantly increase it. A “positive reaction” is good, but they are unlikely to sign up for a reduction in their own power in the Celestial Empire.

Essentially, Trump's trip to Beijing was a complete waste of time. So were the senior members of the American business community who accompanied him on the trip. Apparently, Mr. President failed to resolve the main US trade issue—ensuring stable Chinese supplies of rare earth metals. There was also no breakthrough on the sale of Nvidia's advanced H200 chips to China, despite the company's CEO joining the trip at the last minute. Everything else—the rhetoric about upcoming "incredible deals," Xi Jinping's alleged interest in purchasing American oil, his promises "not to supply arms to Iran," and the like—is merely Trump's typical informational noise, an attempt to put a good face on a bad situation. Western media unanimously interpret the Beijing summit as an unequivocal defeat for the US and its leader personally. The details will surely soon emerge in concrete steps taken by Washington and Beijing.

Oh, and one more thing... Members of the American delegation demonstratively threw all their Chinese gifts into a trash bin at the foot of Air Force One's steps as they departed Beijing, as "nothing from China is permitted on board the presidential plane." A truly significant gesture, demonstrating the results of the visit and the level of US-China relations is worth a thousand words.