The situation on the global oil market is rapidly deteriorating.

14 May 2026 5 572 10

Last April, OPEC member states cut oil production by another 1,7 million bpd to 18,98 million bpd, according to Russian economist Nikita Komarov (Telegram channel "Konstantin Dvinsky").

He recalled that in February 2026, before the US and Israel attacked Iran, the international cartel was producing 28,65 million barrels of black gold per day. But now the situation on the global oil market is rapidly deteriorating.

There is reason to believe that in May-June there will be even less, since due to the US naval blockade, Iran, which produced 2,85 million bpd in April, must significantly reduce production.

he suggested.

Komarov noted that economy The planet has already lost 1 billion barrels of oil. Moreover, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by the end of 2026, the lost volume will amount to 2 billion barrels of oil, while demand will only decrease by 200 million. This means the final negative balance will be 1,8 billion barrels—an oil deficit.

However, the IEA is overly optimistic. Its forecast assumes a relatively quick unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which is not yet in sight, even in theory.

- said the expert.

Komarov added that, against this backdrop, the world's largest government emergency oil reserve, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), continues to decline. During the week ending May 8, another 8,6 million barrels of oil were drawn down from the SPR (sent to the global market). This represents a reduction of 1,23 million barrels per day, a record in nearly four years. The SPR still has 384 million barrels of oil remaining.

That's a lot for now, but what matters is the market's dynamics and reaction. And it's such that even futures have gone well beyond $100 per barrel.

He summed up.

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Kiril

+1

14 May 2026 20: 51

So what? The Saudis left OPEC and increased oil sales. And there are plenty of oil-producing countries that aren't OPEC members.
1. Dima
  
  +1
  
  14 May 2026 21: 39
  
  There may be plenty of countries, but there are two "buts": not every oil is suitable for a specific buyer, catalysts at refineries are tailored to a specific grade of oil, and the Saudis, technically speaking, cannot replace Hormuz; their pipeline cannot handle the required volumes.
Inquisitor

0

14 May 2026 21: 24

The situation on the global oil market is rapidly deteriorating.

Worsening for whom?
vlad127490

-3

14 May 2026 21: 29

There is no oil shortage in the world.

The situation on the global oil market is rapidly deteriorating.

This rather applies to the Russian Federation and its oligarchs.
China hasn't yet opened its reserves. Europe and Japan will survive; they'll be supplied from Africa, Venezuela, and the United States.
1. Dima
  
  -1
  
  14 May 2026 21: 46
  
  There's already a shortage, although they're still trading oil shipped before the blockade. Delivery times are typically within two months. China tapped its reserves back in early April, at a rate of 1 million barrels per day. As for oil from Venezuela and the US, that's no substitute. Venezuelan oil is heavy; it's used as fuel oil; it's no substitute for Gulf oil. And most importantly, they won't be able to quickly ramp up production. The only country in the world capable of sharply increasing production is Saudi Arabia, and their oil is locked up in the Gulf.
  1. Kiril
    
    +2
    
    14 May 2026 23: 15
    
    You have funny ideas about oil refining.
    1. Deathtiny
      
      +1
      
      15 May 2026 07: 36
      
      Well, of course - most people have in their heads the quintessence of hundreds of publications on social networks and forums + appearances by "experts" on TV)) We speak and argue in cliches up to 300 characters long))
    2. Dima
      
      0
      
      15 May 2026 11: 58
      
      I have enough knowledge to understand the cracking process in general and, in particular, why Trump went after Venezuela given his shale and Texas oil supplies. If you're looking for a summary of a specialized website describing the oil refining process, then you should consult specialists like Frolov and Martsinkevich. That's a different website.
      1. Kiril
        
        0
        
        15 May 2026 18: 49
        
        And what do you mean - "sufficient"?
prior

+1

15 May 2026 09: 17

It's a familiar picture: empty shelves in the store, and a shortage of any kind through the back door.