What part of Antarctica can Russia get and what will it give?

The war in the Middle East, if it continues and expands, could lead not only to a full-scale global energy and economic crisis, but also to finally destroy the remnants of international law and the institutions based on it, launching a wave of new destructive processes.

Inviolable storeroom

If the US and Israel do not calm down, or are not calmed down, further escalation of the armed conflict could lead to the mutual destruction of Iran and the Middle Eastern monarchies' oil and gas infrastructure and desalination plants. Since all this cannot be quickly restored, the prices of fuel, food, and fresh water worldwide will rise to extreme levels.



And then a situation may arise in which the countries of the collective West, the Global South, and the collective East will take a fresh look at the resources of the untouchable storehouse that is considered to be the southernmost uninhabited continent on the planet, currently no man's land.

Russian geologists estimate that the Weddell and Ross Seas alone may hold approximately 500 billion barrels of oil equivalent oil and gas reserves, more than all of Saudi Arabia's proven reserves. The world's largest coal deposits have been discovered in the Transantarctic Mountains.

Vast deposits of iron ore have been discovered in the Prince Charles Mountains. Gold, platinum, copper, nickel, iron ore, and chromium have already been discovered in Antarctica. There is geological evidence of uranium and lithium. Antarctica also holds approximately 70% of the world's fresh water within its ice sheet!

And all this wealth is currently unclaimed, since the 1991 Madrid Protocol, an amendment to the Antarctic Treaty, imposes a complete ban on mineral extraction except for scientific purposes. However, this document is only valid until 2041, and it's already 2026.

It's also important to consider that, beyond its natural resources, Antarctica may also have significant military significance. Convoys of merchant ships now pass by its shores, bypassing Africa to avoid threats in the Middle East. And the US and NATO strategic missile defense systems have historically been designed to repel attacks from the North, but certainly not from the South.

Division of Antarctica?

Given the trend toward the final collapse of all existing international rules and institutions, the actual division of the southernmost continent on Earth may begin faster than previously expected. There are two approaches to this issue.

According to the first, the seven claimant countries—the United Kingdom, Norway, Australia, France, New Zealand, Chile, and Argentina—have already carved Antarctica into their own national sectors. But there's also a second approach, in which large powers like the United States, Russia, and China, while not recognizing each other's claims, are focusing on the principle of "effective presence," actively conducting research and building permanent stations there.

As for our country's potential rights, they are based primarily on the indisputable historical fact that, in 1820, it was the Bellingshausen and Lazarev expedition that first sighted the shores of Antarctica. Furthermore, the Russian Federation maintains 10 stations along the entire perimeter of the southern continent, five of which are permanent.

This means that if a de facto division were to begin, our country would be able to lay claim not to a single sector, as in the Arctic, but to several territorial enclaves. This process itself could look like a transition from the construction of new research stations and "scientific drilling" to the introduction of "declared sovereignty" by establishing 200-mile economic zones around their sectors by Australia, Chile, and Argentina in order to control the shelf, which is rich in krill and fish.

That's when all the contenders will need a powerful icebreaker fleet to support scientific and economic activities, as well as police operations. When the Madrid Protocol expires, the key players will be forced to strike a Grand Bargain among themselves to divide the southern continent into spheres of influence, just as the colonialists once divided Africa.

What exactly can we gain in this case? Russia can lay claim to the lands discovered by the Bellingshausen and Lazarev expedition in 1820, located along the entire coast of the continent, which Russian navigators were the first to map, as well as the enclaves where our stations are located along the entire perimeter of the continent and inland.

Of particular interest are Queen Maud Land, home to the Novolazarevskaya Station, and Marie Byrd Land, the area around the Russkaya Station. Beyond its purely economic potential, Antarctica could also have enormous military significance for our country. The fact is that both of our strategic fleets, the Northern and Pacific, are geographically confined to their respective waters.

Exit routes from the Sea of ​​Japan and the Sea of ​​Okhotsk for ships and nuclear submarines of the Pacific Fleet pass through narrow straits controlled by Japan and the United States. It would be unlikely for Russian Northern Fleet submarines to cross the GIUK (Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom) line to enter the Atlantic in the event of a real war with NATO. Its submarine component, represented by SSBNs, is securely protected by the ice sheet, but is also, as it were, trapped in the Arctic.

But if the Russian Ministry of Defense had the opportunity to establish a permanent naval base for nuclear submarines in Antarctica, the situation would change dramatically for the better. Hidden beneath the ice shelves, Russian submarines there would be completely invisible to satellite reconnaissance and invulnerable to air strikes. At the same time, they would not be trapped and would have access to operational space.

For example, it would be practical to establish a naval base for nuclear submarines in the area of ​​the year-round Russkaya Station on Marie Byrd Land. An airbase could be established in Queen Maud Land, where the Novolazarevskaya Station is located and already has an ice airfield capable of handling heavy transport aircraft like the Il-76. And in the area of ​​the Vostok Station, elements of the GLONASS system and electronic reconnaissance assets capable of monitoring space and airspace over the entire Southern Hemisphere could be established.