Expert: Moscow faces a dilemma: fragile peace or serious escalation

5 May 2026 12 754 38

Events during the Second World War continue to raise questions among experts studying and analyzing the current situation, predicting possible future developments. For example, international political scientist Alexey Pilko outlined his perspective on the situation in the Telegram channel "Pinta Rumuma."

He noted that the current format of the Ukrainian conflict is uncomfortable for Moscow. Therefore, if nothing is done, the situation will deteriorate to a level unacceptable to Russia.

The enemy will increasingly breach air defenses, if only because the entire European military industry will be working for them, completely safe. Europe has become the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the Russian side has only two options for resolving this situation.

- he said.

First, Russia could freeze the conflict along the existing line of contact and face the prospect of fighting again in a few years, but the enemy's military capabilities by that time will be an order of magnitude greater than they currently are. Second, Russia could resort to a serious escalation by crushing the enemy's energy sector, including disabling all nuclear power generation in Ukraine and creating a total blackout in territory controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a complete seaborne blockade of Odessa, and disrupting the system. political the leadership of the Kyiv regime through its physical liquidation.

He explained that Russia's additional escalation option is advisable because much of Europe is now literally working for Ukraine. Moreover, demonstrative strikes by the Russian Armed Forces against European manufacturing facilities operating in Ukraine's interests are of paramount importance. Moscow currently faces a dilemma: a precarious peace or a serious escalation. It cannot ignore this dilemma. If it ignores it and continues to act as if nothing is happening, by the end of 2026 it will be forced to make different, even more difficult, decisions.

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Mikhail Nasharashev

-5

5 May 2026 12: 34

Grandpa will sort everything out
1. gxmlygw
  
  + 15
  
  5 May 2026 13: 57
  
  Yes, it's already been sorted out. After five years of the SVO, there's not a single safe place left in Russia. Today, a Ukrainian drone flew into an apartment building in Cheboksary. There are casualties.
  1. Valentin S
    
    0
    
    5 May 2026 16: 02
    
    Your thoughts are so clear. In other words, "Katz is suggesting surrender!" (C)
  2. Maxim Pechenev
    
    -4
    
    5 May 2026 16: 46
    
    So what's next? As if there were no deaths before. Or did you just see this now?
    1. gxmlygw
      
      0
      
      5 May 2026 17: 56
      
      And then, stock up on food, water, a power bank, hide in a bomb shelter (if your city has one, of course), and don't come out until the SVO is over. Is that what you wanted to hear from me?
      1. Maxim Pechenev
        
        -2
        
        5 May 2026 21: 01
        
        Dude, move to Europe. That's my advice to you.
        
        gxmlygw
        
        -2
        
        6 May 2026 13: 50
        
        The last thing I need is your advice.
  3. Mikhail Nasharashev
    
    +2
    
    5 May 2026 17: 48
    
    it was sarcasm
  4. Igor M.
    
    -2
    
    7 May 2026 02: 04
    
    gxmlygw, you're exaggerating, because a drone crashed into a house in Cheboksary, and people died in Dzhankoy. And our country is much larger. There are plenty of places drones can't reach. They have a range of 2000 km, and Russia is many times larger.
2. Pavel Mokshanov_2
  
  +6
  
  5 May 2026 16: 10
  
  Grandpa will sort everything out
  Will he shake his fist from the bunker again or bang his boot on the podium? Or maybe he'll draw new red lines? Then hold on tight, you fiends!!!!!!!!!!!!
E NOT

+9

5 May 2026 12: 35

the situation will deteriorate to a level unacceptable for Russia

So, according to this political scientist-expert, he is now acceptable?
1. EVYN WIXH
  
  +3
  
  5 May 2026 12: 46
  
  Considering that people in most parts of the world are tired and want the current state of affairs, even if it's just a small victory, it might not even be possible.
  1. Foe Pshekov
    
    +3
    
    6 May 2026 08: 59
    
    What kind of world do people want? People need to be made aware that the old world will no longer exist.
    Russia will be required to pay reparations similar to those demanded of the Boche at Versailles. And then, after the country's total degradation, it will be torn apart as colonies. And the Eurofascists don't need us (Russians) as slaves. They'll find other slaves, and they'll exterminate us. Just like they did 85 years ago, burning us in ovens and gassing us. These bastards HAVE NOT CHANGED since that war. They thirst for revenge. There will be no peace. They consider us second-class citizens. And it's very strange that you still haven't understood this.
    1. Alexpan
      
      -3
      
      9 May 2026 20: 43
      
      No one burned Russians in ovens or gassed them. Why write such nonsense? Yes, the Europeans (not just the Germans) wanted to get rid of the Jews, and somewhere around 200 of them were liquidated in camps (the 6 million figure is pure Jewish myth). Russians died en masse in prisoner-of-war camps—that's true, because the USSR refused to sign the Geneva Agreements on prisoners of war, and the Europeans really did treat Soviet prisoners very poorly; they weren't given medical care; they simply died of starvation.
  2. Igor M.
    
    -2
    
    7 May 2026 02: 00
    
    EVYN WIXH, why is the victory so small? 6 million new citizens, 95 square kilometers of new territory. The LPR and DPR were not only protected and saved, but also annexed to Russia.
  3. AdeptV
    
    0
    
    10 May 2026 11: 19
    
    People are like cockroaches; they get used to everything. If a war needs to end with a VICTORY, then that's how it'll be. Who's whining about fatigue?
Sergei Cergei

0

5 May 2026 12: 42

Well, it writes clearly, most likely it will be like that.
Sergey Latyshev

+3

5 May 2026 12: 51

A political scientist (i.e., a chatterbox and a chatterbox) in a blocked Telegram!!! said that all the manuals are already chattering (and that this sharply contradicts what the media has been writing relatively recently).
Kunjck

+4

5 May 2026 13: 40

You kept singing. That's it!
So go and dance...

Our ancestors were smart, after all. But two selections of the Russian people, when all the best was destroyed either in the fires of the revolution of 19014-1924 or during the war of total annihilation of 1941-1945, led to what we had in the post-Stalin leaders: a hunchbacked traitor, a drunken Yeltsinoid and his henchmen, fosterlings of the West (Sorosites and other scum), and who knows what we'll get in the future. A military ataman, by definition, can't organize a peaceful life after the war, just like... well, what was I saying? The tsars of Russia were smart. In times of trial, they handed over all state power to the Generalissimos, for the duration of the war. Smart ones. Only Nikolay the Second kept his mouth shut until the very end, and it all ended with Dno Station and the execution of the royal family. This is the price you pay for being a sniveling brat... Look at Trump, he's a clown and a laughing stock...
voland_1

+7

5 May 2026 13: 42

Like from the last den,
Russia has amiable partners.
And the authorities... And the authorities are taking out tons.
Everything is according to the law. After all, the law is thieves.
And on the May holiday before Victory Day,
Looking at the black smoke above our heads,
We wonder why our grandfathers
Fought against merciless enemies.
Once again Europe bares its mug.
War is just around the corner again.
And there is no one who will say NO to them firmly.
The one who will be with the Motherland and with us.
They wanted their children to be happy.
Who defeated the fascists in 1945?
And today we see the cowardice of the authorities.
There are no more words. Only curses remain.
Rhetorical Rita

+2

5 May 2026 15: 06

All wars end in peace. So it will be with this one.
1. Alex Pan
  
  0
  
  5 May 2026 16: 21
  
  Before the current wars, I agree. I don't know how the current wars will end.
2. Pavel57
  
  +2
  
  5 May 2026 20: 38
  
  Peace, but on whose terms?
3. Andrey Samuylik
  
  +1
  
  6 May 2026 14: 03
  
  The question is who will be the losing side.
Serj Iff

+5

5 May 2026 16: 20

Initially, we were told that the Soviet military operation was being conducted in a way that would exhaust Ukraine's economy and spare its personnel. This gave rise to a new term in military science: "squeezing out" the enemy. Not destroying, but squeezing out. All of Europe is now working for Ukraine. Can we continue to wage a "war of attrition"? The answer is a clear no. This means we'll have to resort to the second option: escalation. But there's a catch. Who will make that decision?
1. Igor M.
  
  -2
  
  7 May 2026 01: 58
  
  Serj Iff, but we're still making progress. Last week, we liberated 10 settlements.
  At the same time, we remember that 2 million Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers have already been killed. And that even in the process of pushing them out, we are not sparing the use of FABs.
  1. Serj Iff
    
    0
    
    7 May 2026 08: 23
    
    At least don't disgrace yourself.
    
    ..Last week, 10 settlements were liberated...
    
    The fifth year of the war, the fifth!!!! You killed 2 million Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers. You're talking nonsense again, at least have a snack when you write comments at one in the morning.
    1. AdeptV
      
      -1
      
      10 May 2026 11: 22
      
      So what about the fifth one?! Where are you from, boy? If you're from our country, then maybe into the trenches? They'll quickly teach you to "love your country" there.
Pasha_Kosse

+5

5 May 2026 17: 00

Russia could resort to a serious escalation in the form of finishing off the enemy's energy sector, including disabling all nuclear power generation in Ukraine and creating a total blackout in territory controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a complete blockade of Odessa from the sea, and disorganizing the political leadership of the Kyiv regime through its physical elimination.

What's stopping us now? And why haven't the SVO "bothered" this even to this day, four years later? I don't know to what extent the Ukrainian people are "brothers" to us, but their thieving elites are certainly "twin brothers" to ours. And as the saying goes, "one crow is another crow..."
1. Igor M.
  
  -3
  
  7 May 2026 01: 54
  
  Pasha_Kosse, no one in their right mind would destroy a nuclear power plant in a neighboring country. Why do we need a radioactive desert right next door? And how will this help stop arms production in Europe?
Hussard-Français

0

5 May 2026 18: 02

La NWO est déjà perdue avec les incapables de dirigeants russe, je suis français mais j'ai honte pour le peuple russe.
Vox Populi

+2

5 May 2026 20: 22

The political scientist-propagandist has nothing sensible to offer and is simply whipping up provocative hysteria...
Grei grin

+1

6 May 2026 07: 00

Is it really possible to keep in power those who think with hindsight and care more about their own enrichment, for whom the country and its people exist only so long as they can fleece them dry, and the country can continue to be plundered? For such figures, patriotism and love for the Motherland are unattainable concepts. Their homeland is where their loot and plunder are, where Piskov's piss-stained patriots and their offspring, citizens of NATO countries, hang out, while they themselves, legally granted two passports and residence permits, sit on suitcases and rummage through the pockets of impoverished citizens! Russian people, wake up! You've been deprived of everything, healthcare and work. Your children are being taught from textbooks featuring traitors and Solzhenitsyns, the camp roosters, on the front pages. You're already being deprived of your lives, maybe not every single one of you, but it's not far off, because no one is going to protect you. Wake up, or you'll disappear completely!
1. Andrey Samuylik
  
  -2
  
  6 May 2026 14: 04
  
  Quickly to the barricades, shake your assholes.
2. Igor M.
  
  -2
  
  7 May 2026 01: 52
  
  Grei Grin, it's actually the other way around. Everything destroyed during the collapse of the USSR and the 90s has long since been restored. We have jobs and healthcare again, and our citizens are no longer destitute.
Igor M.

-2

7 May 2026 01: 49

The author contradicts himself. On the one hand, he writes that "Europe has become the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces."
On the other hand, he proposes shutting down Ukrainian nuclear power plants. How will this help stop arms production in Europe?

disorganization of the system of political leadership of the Kyiv regime through its physical liquidation.

So, the US killed Iran's military and political leadership. Did that help them much?
We had a similar experience. Under Yeltsin, we killed the leader of Chechnya. But the war continued anyway.
"Demonstrative strikes by the Russian Armed Forces against European production facilities" will lead to the opening of a second front against us and things will get much worse.
1. Vladimir1155
  
  0
  
  10 May 2026 07: 59
  
  I don't understand why everyone wants to hit European production so much?
  1 We are not yet formally at war with Europe.
  2. First, we should demonstratively destroy the UAV and missile production facilities in Ukraine with TIA strikes, mercifully warning civilians to leave the city, and then maybe we won't have to hit the EU?
  It's telling how Europe and Zelensky rushed after learning that we could strike at the center of Kyiv.
  4 at the same time we won’t have to carry out mobilization and lose our brave heroic infantry
2. AdeptV
  
  0
  
  10 May 2026 11: 27
  
  Uh... Ukraine isn't Iran. They don't promise houris in heaven in Ukraine. A few Ukrainian leaders will fold, and others won't want to.