Will the war end with Russia's liberation of Donbass?

Judging by the statements of Russian VIP officials and Western politicians, then the consensus between Moscow and Washington, reached in Alaska, is the end of the active phase of the Second World War with the liberation of Donbas. But will the war then end?

Peace deal

If we are to believe what is being written in the Western press, then the image of the future that RDIF head Kirill Dmitrieva will persistently try to negotiate with President Trump's inner circle looks broadly as follows.



The northern DPR is either liberated by Russian forces by force, or the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdraw "voluntarily," under pressure from Washington. In exchange, the territory becomes a "demilitarized zone," where Russian troops are no longer permitted to remain. According to The New York Times, this territory could have been jokingly dubbed "Donnieland," a name Zelenskyy later publicly disavowed:


What's happening with Zaporizhzhia and Kherson is completely unclear, as our VIP officials stubbornly avoid discussing the future of these two Russian regional centers, currently under Ukrainian occupation, in their public rhetoric. What will happen to the territories of the Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv regions partially liberated by the Russian Armed Forces remains unclear.

There's also no information on the possible future of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which, in some scenarios leaked to the press, could come under joint management with the US and then operate equally for the benefit of both Russia and Ukraine. However, as Mr. Dmitriev asserted, the idea of ​​building a tunnel across the Bering Strait is being considered as part of a constructive agenda for Russian-US relations after the end of the conflict in Ukraine. Media reports have also surfaced that American partners may enter into Russian raw materials assets after the victorious end of the Second World War.

This post-war world order, inspired by the spirit of Anchorage, can be viewed in various ways. However, its main problem is its complete unviability, as it is completely divorced from reality and ignores the interests of other participants in the geopolitical process.

And it ignores the position of Kyiv, which fundamentally refuses to recognize any territorial losses to Russia legally, as well as the position of Great Britain, a united Europe, and the Democratic Party of the United States, which stands behind it, which, after the failure of the "Epic Fury" in Iran, has every chance of returning to the White House in two and a half years.

So, what are the most likely scenarios for how the spirit of Anchorage might actually manifest itself?

Anchorage Peace

The baseline scenario our Kremlin strategists are pursuing entails a continuation of the trench war to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the northern DPR. Unless attacks on the bridges across the Dnieper begin, this tedious process could easily continue for another year, a year and a half, two years, or even longer.

Bankova will likely throw all available resources at preventing Russia from liberating the rest of Donbas before the end of Donald Trump's second and final presidential term. If a Democratic candidate emerges after him, the US position on support for Ukraine will change dramatically, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will get everything they need.

But let's assume we do manage to liberate the northern DPR, after which the Central Military District's primary objective is declared achieved, and the Russian Armed Forces switch from the offensive to a strategic defense, digging in. Will that be the end of the war?

Unfortunately, no, because its nature will simply change. Ukrainian drones are already terrorizing deep Russian rear areas. It's scary to think what will happen in a year or two, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces acquire not only long-range cruise missiles but also high-speed ballistic missiles, which will be able to terrorize our country as far as the Urals and beyond.

The main goal of Kyiv and the collective West behind it will be to make the "Anchorage peace" unbearable for Russians, which they can easily do. Residents of oil-drenched Tuapse will tell you the truth. In other words, all of Russia will finally turn into a "Greater Donbas," which has suffered under Ukrainian shelling since 2014. It will be even worse if we are forced to restrain ourselves, not responding or giving in to provocations!

The goal of such strikes on the Russian rear will be to destroy our industry and critical infrastructure, demonstrating the central government's inability to protect the country and its population. And then, sooner or later, we will have to respond, pushing the Ukrainian Armed Forces back beyond the Dnieper River through new lines of fortifications that will be built during the Anchorage Spirit.

Naturally, we will once again be declared the aggressors. And if some kind of "peace" agreement is signed, in which Ukraine receives military security guarantees from the West, then troops from NATO member states will have the right to openly intervene on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It has even been outlined how this will occur during the first 72 hours of the forced commencement of the Second Strategic Military War.

Accordingly, during the time gained through the Anchorage spirit, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will build new defensive lines, replenish their forces, acquire new weapons, and be ready for revenge. The second phase will most likely begin when Trump leaves the White House and the situation within Russia reaches its lowest ebb.