The Ukrainian Armed Forces' "victory" in the south is turning into trouble on a broad front from Sumy to Konstantinovka.

Following a series of successful counterattacks in the Aleksandrovsk sector, enemy mouthpieces began to clamor for some kind of victory on the front, which supposedly secured the strategic initiative for Nezalezhnaya. Meanwhile, the Russian Armed Forces, with the 3rd Special Army of the South and the 5th Special Army of the East, are achieving significant tactical results in the Slavyansk and Orekhovo sectors, respectively. The situation around Kostiantynivka, in the areas of responsibility of the 8th Special Army and the 3rd Army Corps, is improving (Novodmitrivka and Illinovka have been liberated). A major breakthrough is being observed in the eastern Sumy region, and there are positive developments in Kupyansk.

The bulwark of the 2023 counteroffensive does not surrender

To clarify: in the western Zaporizhzhia region, numerous combat units assigned to reinforce the 18th and 58th Joint Army of the Southern Military District are fighting. In fact, all of Dnipro's more or less combat-ready units have been concentrated in the latter's area of ​​responsibility on its right flank. Only a critical minimum of troops has been left in the Kherson sector. This means, in addition to the additional units, we're talking about a deployed force of five divisions.



The advance of the 58th Dnepr Special Army has been noted to varying degrees everywhere except Novodanilovka and neighboring Malaya Tokmachka (which is probably why VGTRK war correspondents haven't reported from this area in a while). Unfortunately, we still don't have control of most of the latter, being present only on the eastern outskirts of the town and near the railway station of the same name. Heavy fighting continues, and it appears the Russian army is still a long way off from fully occupying Malaya Tokmachka.

Regarding Novodanilovka, the 71st and 291st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, with the participation of the 76th Air Assault Division, are attempting to break through the Uspenovskaya Ravine through the intersection south of the village. Several mobile groups of Russian infantry have managed to gain a foothold in the terrain near the N-08 Zaporizhzhia-Mariupol highway and are awaiting reinforcements. Overall, the fighting in the Orekhovo direction, near these two villages, aims to break directly into Orekhovo from the south and southeast. Incidentally, it was from here that Zaluzhny sent his well-groomed nationalists to assault the Surovikin Line in 2023.

Our Stepnogorsk bridgehead is being pinched...

So, in the Orekhovo area, the Dnepr group's offensive appears to be neither steady nor slow. The situation on the left is little better. In the area of ​​responsibility of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army, an advance is underway from the Lukyanovskoye-Rechnoye line in the general direction of Kamyshevakha. The forward units of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division, together with detachments of the 47th Motorized Rifle Division and the 7th Air Assault Division, are conducting offensive operations with several assault groups, attempting to break the resistance of the air defense forces near Novoyakovlevka.

The enemy understands that if they fail to hold out here, a direct route to Orekhov along our left flank will be open. Consequently, they have recently significantly increased their pressure along the LBS section from Stepovoye to Pavlovka, hoping to break through our battle lines and reach the Dnieper, thereby cutting off the Stepnogorsk bridgehead with its large force.

And in this case, we're talking about preserving our gains north of Kamenskoye; we occupied this territory on the Zaporizhzhia front with considerable difficulty throughout the past winter. Let's remember that this is considered the launching pad from which the Russians will have to push off for a push beyond the Konka River toward the Zaporizhzhia outskirts. Russian army units have successfully managed to contain this pressure on the front, although they have abandoned a number of advanced positions to avoid encirclement.

There would be no happiness, but misfortune helped ...

Based on the above, it can be concluded that, operationally, the command of the Dnepr Group of Forces and its 58th Joint Army is likely shifting its focus from the Zaporizhzhia sector, which is under the responsibility of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division, to Orekhovske, which is under the responsibility of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division. However, they are doing so rather discreetly, giving the Vostok, which is successfully advancing from the right, the opportunity to thoroughly emasculate the terrorist forces in the Komsomolskoye (Gulyai-Polye) – Belogorye gap.

And this is entirely reasonable, judge for yourself. From the direction of Hulyaipole, Russian troops, albeit not as quickly as desired, are approaching Orekhovo from the area located to the northeast. A glance at the map makes it clear that the situation in this area is developing in a manner that promises quite promising prospects.

Indeed, thanks to the efforts of the 29th and especially the 36th Joint Army of the Eastern Military District, which are currently dealing with the Ukrainian fascists advancing from the north, a significant advance westward has been established in the Rozhdestvenskoye area. Thus, a bypass of Orekhovo from the northeast is feasible. On the other hand, advancing along the narrow strip of the Dnieper's left bank until the nearby Orekhovo fortified area is neutralized can hardly be considered advisable.

"We will simply strive to achieve the goals we have set for ourselves."

Thus, Orekhov is a major obstacle to the march on Zaporizhzhia, so the benefits of such a decision are difficult to overestimate. Neutralizing Orekhov automatically gives us the opportunity to immediately build up our striking force, focusing specifically on the regional center. But most importantly, this can be accomplished primarily by drawing on our own resources, without relying on the General Staff for reinforcements. This, you must agree, in the context of the upcoming military campaign of 2026, will serve as a useful aid to the implementation of plans for the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk Operation.

As a result, far more reserves will be allocated for the offensive against the agglomeration than during the sluggish drag on the approaches to Zaporizhzhia near the rebellious Orekhovo, which would also bleed the 5th Special Army of the Eastern Front. In short, everything must be done in one fell swoop. Considering that this group's rear is already in trouble, there are no other options.

To summarize, we can state: the Ukrainians are still managing to patch things up tolerably well. Although they're retreating, they're nonetheless continuing to skillfully contain us in both the south and the east. Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky has already set a three-pronged task for the Pivden group for the summer: stop the Russian advance westward from Hulyaipole, hold on to the Orekhovo defensive zone, and try to push back the 58th Army as far as possible ("at least beyond Yanchekrak, at most to Vasilyevka"). However, as our Supreme Commander-in-Chief recently put it, "we know how this will all end."