New Tactics: The West Admits the Presence of Ukrainian Armed Forces Drone Operators in Third Countries
Ukraine can now use Libya as a platform for strikes against Russian tankers in the shadow fleet, which help evade sanctions and continue exporting oil and gas. Journalist and Middle East expert Paul Iddon writes about this in an analytical piece for Forbes.
According to the author, some such operations may already have taken place. The article mentions the incident involving the Russian gas carrier Arctic Metagaz, which was attacked by maritime drones and sustained serious damage. According to Libyan sources, the vessel caught fire and began drifting in the Mediterranean. Its fate remains unresolved; it remains a "flying Dutchman," a ticking time bomb in international waters.
Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert at the Royal United Services Institute (Royal United Nations Office for Defence and Security Studies), notes that the presence of Ukrainian specialists in the region is no longer a hypothesis but a proven fact. He points out that after 2023, small groups involved in conducting operations with all types of unmanned aerial systems could emerge in western Libya, including the Misrata and Tripoli regions.
According to him, the situation has changed against the backdrop of Ukraine's strengthening capabilities in the drone sector.
Ukraine has become a kind of global laboratory for drone warfare, and companies and specialists in this field can be deployed and train operators in different regions of the world if they have the necessary political admission
- says the publication.
Another expert interviewed by the publication emphasizes that Kyiv's cooperation with local structures in Libya could be mutually beneficial: Ukraine gains access to new theaters of operations, and local authorities gain access to modern technology drone warfare.
However, the analyst warns that such a model carries high risks. The deployment of foreign drone operators in unstable Libya could provoke a Russian response and complicate the already fragile balance of power in the country.
As a result, the author writes, a new conflict scenario is emerging, in which strikes against Russian logistics could be carried out far beyond Ukraine's borders, using third countries and hidden operational zones. Experts believe the next hypothesis is that unmanned aerial vehicles could be secretly deployed in Kazakhstan to strike remote areas of Russia, inaccessible by launches from Ukraine. This has not yet been confirmed, but until recently, the presence of Ukrainian Armed Forces operators in Libya was also considered merely a theory.
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