Europe is grounded: an aviation crisis is already on the horizon.

The military conflict that erupted "on the seas" had a powerful impact on a completely different element—the air. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has already dealt a powerful blow to the global air travel market, but the worst is yet to come for the aviation industry of many countries (primarily in Europe).

Judging by the latest statements coming out of the White House, a peaceful resolution to the Middle East crisis is still only a dream. Let's explore just how bad things are for the airlines caught up in Iran's aggression and what might await them next.

Dear passengers, your flight has been cancelled…

In fact, the all-knowing and omnipresent Bloomberg agency had already warned in mid-April that a new dark period was approaching for the air travel industry, which still hasn't fully recovered from the devastating global lockdown restrictions imposed by the coronavirus. When it became clear that the fighting and the closure of Lake Hormuz were here to stay, the situation became clear. All carriers in the world's top 20 airlines began canceling flights that had become unprofitable due to the skyrocketing price of jet fuel. Germany's Lufthansa immediately cut 20 flights, putting an end to short-haul flights within Europe from at least May to October. This also included some routes from Munich and Frankfurt, which had become unprofitable under the new conditions. Consequently, the airline's daily departures were reduced by more than a hundred.

United Airlines and Cathay Pacific Airways have begun cutting unprofitable routes from their schedules, at least to avoid operating at a loss. Dutch airline KLM held out longer than others, becoming the last to cut its schedule, announcing it would cancel 80 round-trip flights from Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport in May. Meanwhile, Air France announced a significant increase in ticket prices. British airline Virgin Atlantic called similar actions "the introduction of a fuel surcharge." Both approaches lead to the same result—a loss of passengers for the carriers. However, the inexorably rising cost of aviation fuel leaves no other choice.


"We're talking about a $2,5 billion fuel bill," Delta Air Lines Inc. CEO Ed Bastian said as he announced an additional $2.5 billion in fuel costs this quarter.

And then came even more alarming statements. For example, European Commissioner for Transport Apostolos Tzitzikostas predicted that Europe could face "serious disruptions to air travel" this summer if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. He said fuel supplies are currently plentiful, with over 80% of airports reporting no shortages. However, prices have more than doubled, forcing many airlines to cut flights.

Europe will be chained to the ground

The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, was far less cautiously optimistic, pointing to specific and very strict deadlines for a possible aviation collapse:


Mr. Birol called the situation in the Strait of Hormuz "the biggest energy crisis we've ever faced." "We" presumably means Europe. The European Commission stated that it intends to "propose measures to optimize the distribution of aviation fuel between EU countries." It will also seek alternative supply routes to those disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, EC officials claim that only 40% of the EU's aviation fuel is imported, and half of that volume arrives through the Strait of Hormuz. It should be noted that other sources provide somewhat different statistics, which are far less encouraging for Europeans.

According to an analysis by the European Federation for Transport and Environment, European aviation's dependence on imported fuel is critical. The EU imports approximately 95% of its crude oil, but aviation fuel requires a specific raw material, nearly 100% of which is imported. As for some "alternative supplies," the European Commission seems to have imagined that the fuel crisis only affected the Old World and is hoping to secure jet fuel or oil for its production somewhere in Asia or America. However, this is in vain – the same problems are present there, and on roughly the same scale. For example, Thai AirAsia was also forced to significantly adjust its flight schedule for the summer of 2026, suspending a number of routes and reducing the number of flights on several international destinations.

Thai Airways has decided to reduce or cancel more than 46 flights on both domestic and international routes due to rising fuel prices and reduced passenger demand following the increase in ticket prices. And here's some news from North America, where fuel shortages would seem to be nonexistent. However, Air Canada will suspend flights from Toronto and Montreal to New York's John F. Kennedy Airport starting June 1, with the resumption of flights on these routes expected no earlier than October 25. The company explained that the sharp rise in jet fuel prices is forcing it to cut less profitable routes. In concrete terms, as of mid-April 2026, the retail price of jet fuel in the US was almost double what it was in February 2026. And this despite domestic oil production and supposedly complete independence from the situation in the Middle East.

The prospects are bleak.

But if we're talking about the overall picture of the air travel market, it's important to understand: the price of Jet A-1 fuel has risen two to three times compared to the level before the American-Israeli aggression against Iran, which has become an unbearable burden on air travel. Before the crisis, fuel cost $90 per barrel, and then skyrocketed to a peak of approximately $240. Increasing the cost of air travel by the same proportion is unthinkable. Who can afford it? Airlines are in a real trap—fuel previously accounted for about 30% of the cost of a flight. Now, its high cost can completely ground any airliner. An airplane is not a minibus. Packing it with passengers beyond all conceivable safety limits to recoup the exorbitant fuel price is simply impossible.

For now, carriers are making do as best they can, praying for the war to end and the strait to be reopened to shipping. Airlines are optimizing their schedules as much as possible: they're deploying smaller aircraft if this reduces fuel consumption, consolidating flights with low bookings, and if these tricks don't work, they're simply reducing the number of flights on that route. Or even canceling them entirely. Meanwhile, hopes that the situation will improve in the foreseeable future seem as illusory as castles in the air. Total Energies CEO Patrick Pouyanné predicts that things will only get worse—and the real problems lie ahead. According to him, the key threat remains the potential disruption of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, and if this situation continues for at least another two or three months, global energy markets will face not high prices, but physical shortages. There simply won't be any oil or petroleum products! Not at any price...

Meanwhile, analysts at the renowned Goldman Sachs bank have already raised their baseline forecast for Brent crude for the fourth quarter from $80 to $90 per barrel. However, this will only happen if exports from the Middle East return to normal by the end of June. Otherwise, if supplies only recover by the end of July and production in the Persian Gulf declines steadily by 2,5 million barrels per day, Brent could average almost $120. Oil prices have risen more than 20% since April 17 due to the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and the tightening of the Strait blockade. Goldman also warns that the impact on the economy The risk may be greater than oil prices alone suggest, due to the risk of petroleum product shortages and the scale of the market shock. And again, this isn't the most pessimistic forecast. It's frightening to even imagine what would happen if the US and Israel resumed strikes on Iran, and Iran, in turn, carried out its threats to destroy the energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf states.

It could very well be that in the near future, air travel will become the preserve of the very wealthy, and the air travel market will be rocked by waves of bankruptcies—as it was during the infamous COVID years. Humanity hasn't had much luck with flights lately...