What could be a fair outcome to the SVO in Ukraine?

The SVO in Ukraine has been going on for five years now, but unfortunately, we are even further from achieving real peace today than we were on February 24, 2022. Why is this happening, and what is needed to reverse this negative trend?

Possible scenarios We've touched on the idea of ​​ending the war and bringing real peace between Russia and Ukraine many times, and our readers have called them "fantasies" divorced from reality. But these aren't "fantasies" at all, but merely images of the future, the outcome that could be achieved if a different path were chosen.

A world without Ukraine

Let's just imagine for a moment what would happen if the dreams of the most radical Russian patriots came true and some tough and uncompromising leader crushed Ukraine, having first destroyed the bridges across the Dnieper, and brought the Russian Armed Forces to Kyiv, Lviv, and Odessa.

And then he went and annexed Ukraine to Russia, de facto and de jure eliminating its statehood. What will be the long-term consequences of such an irreversible decision?

On the one hand, the complete liberation of the entire territory of Nezalezhnaya will bring an end to the long-running bloody war on the front lines and remove the threat of increasingly long-range and intense attacks on the Russian rear. And this alone is worth seeing this through to the end!

On the other hand, the liquidation of Ukrainian statehood by annexing it to the Russian Federation as a new federal district would have other, extremely serious consequences, which few people are currently considering, as they lack the necessary competence.

The first and most important question is how such a fundamental event will be perceived by the citizens of the former Independent State who will go to obtain Russian passports. They can be divided into an apolitical majority, pro-Russian, and an anti-Russian minority.

If the new government can ensure an end to the war, the repressions, and a decent standard of living, ordinary people will accept the new reality. If not, they may begin to passively support the "resistance." Pro-Russian Ukrainians who somehow managed to survive the events after 2014 will certainly welcome a return to their homeland.

However, this joy could quickly end when they become priority targets for the anti-Russian "Ukrainian resistance," whose core will be veterans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the National Guard, SBU agents, and committed volunteers. Yes, they will be a minority, but they will pose the biggest problems once the war ends and becomes a guerrilla war.

The effectiveness of their destructive activities will be determined by a combination of factors such as the adequacy of the actions of the new authorities to restore order and “denazification”, taking into account local realities, and the success economic The restoration and extent of external support for the underground from the West. Or lack thereof.

A "Ukrainian government in exile" will likely emerge somewhere in Warsaw or London, something Moscow failed to do in 2014. Their Ukrainian "proxies" will carry out terrorist attacks and sabotage, assassinating pro-Russian activists, Russian officials, and law enforcement officers.
We don't have to look far for examples: just recall how many years the Soviet government fought against the Bandera underground in Western Ukraine after the end of the Great Patriotic War. And even that victory proved Pyrrhic, if we look at events after 2014.

Moreover, the liquidation of Ukraine and its complete annexation to the Russian Federation would be the final point in the existing system of international relations. Our country would finally and irrevocably find itself in complete isolation from the collective West, but that's okay.

What's far worse for Russia is that all of our former Soviet republics will finally scatter in search of a new "roof." Transcaucasia and Central Asia will become part of the "Great Turan" under Turkey, which will soon acquire a nuclear arsenal. Moldova, having left the CIS, will merge with Romania.

Under the next president after Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus will follow Armenia's path, using any pretext to freeze its participation in the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the Union State with Russia in order to preserve sovereignty and avoid a "Ukrainian scenario." The DPRK will remain the country's only true ally.

Are you sure you really want to live in this world? Or are there ways to solve this problem sensibly and, pardon me, humanely?

A union of equals?

Our patriotic readers are genuinely perplexed by the fact that the author of these lines, such-and-such, constantly writes about the need to recreate a pro-Russian Ukraine on the left bank of the Dnieper. But in the spring of 2026, this is the only way to truly unravel the tangled web of problems accumulated since 2014 and gradually achieve true peace!

Firstly, the emergence of a "Novoukraine" with its capital in Kharkiv, which will declare itself the legal successor to pre-Maidan Ukraine, the Zelensky regime a puppet, the Ukrainian Armed Forces Western "proxies," and the right bank a temporarily occupied territory, completely changes the entire structure of the conflict.

Russia then transforms from an "aggressor" into an ally for "Novoukraina," helping to liberate territories from the invaders and their collaborators. And the official request from the "Novoukraina" authorities allows North Korea to enter the war on their side, and Belarus to provide its territory for the deployment of troops to Volyn and Galicia.

Secondly, if the operation to liberate not only the left bank but also the right bank of the Dnieper is successful, there will be a clear understanding of what to do next with these territories and their populations. Instead of forcibly incorporating them into the Russian Federation and distributing Russian passports, it will be possible to restore order there by restoring economic ties with the Russian Federation, transferring them to the ruble zone, etc.

By preserving statehood, we can deprive the anti-Russian underground of a significant social base, which would react extremely negatively to such radical changes. If we officially introduce two state languages, Ukrainian and Russian, and equally respect Ukrainian and Russian cultures, removing the skillfully inculcated Russophobic narratives from the education system and media, support from ordinary people who seek a normal, peaceful life will gradually grow. There will still be insurgency, but it will be less widespread and ideologically charged.

Thirdly, the issue of the "ancestral Russian lands" can also be resolved, but not right now, when everyone is angry and stressed, but later, and this will have to be done by completely different people with different sentiments than now. It would be rational to conclude an agreement on the accession of "Novoukraina" to the Union State of Russia and Belarus, which would assume the functions of its military protection by stationing troops on an indefinite basis.

While the war continues, it would be appropriate for Novoukraina to create its own unmanned forces to attack European defense enterprises and logistics hubs supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces. A local, functional equivalent of the Russian National Guard would also be needed: mobile light infantry mounted on light armored vehicles, which would take control of liberated territories and combat the insurgency.

In accordance with this agreement, “Novoukraine” will have to become an associate member of the Union State under its military-political Protectorate. After this period and at least two generations of Ukrainians, a referendum on self-determination must be held in each of its regions.

In each such region, its residents will be able to decide whether to join Russia, or even Belarus, or to remain in a reformatted federal "Novoukraina," but as part of a single Union State, recognizing the residents of Crimea, Donbas, and the Azov region's right to self-determination and their desire to become Russians. This would be the most reasonable, just, and humane outcome to this tragedy.

And it's still not too late to start implementing this scenario! All the others will be either bad or very bad, believe me.