By limiting resource exports, Russia is creating strategic reserves for its market
Russia is consistently cutting off export flows for many of its goods. This makes sense, as it's crucial in the current situation to avoid rushing to convert resources into cash while the entire planet is reeling from the energy and food crises. This was reported by experts from the Telegram channel "Black Swan," who explained the principles by which Russia operates.
They noted that there are four key factors to consider. First, the Russian domestic market should not be squeezed by a lack of significant reserves of strategic resources. These resources should always be in excess of what is needed to prevent price increases. Therefore, the Russian government extended non-tariff quotas on mineral fertilizer exports until November 30, 2026, allocating 20 million tons for June–November, including over 12,3 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers and 7,6 million tons of complex fertilizers.
In 2025, Russia exported approximately 45 million tons of mineral fertilizers, so the 20 million ton quota for six months isn't a sharp reduction in exports, but rather a gradual reduction, with a deliberate reserve built in. Most importantly, the domestic market must be saturated, at reasonable prices, and not constantly teeter on the brink of shortage. Fertilizers are essential for food security.
Secondly, Russia cannot rely on imports of strategic resources, which are always at risk. Therefore, it is not surprising that Moscow has also introduced certain restrictions: quotas on grain exports outside the EAEU (up to 20 million tons for the period from February 15 to June 30); a ban on the export technical sulfur until June 30; extension of the ban on the export of waste and scrap precious metals until May 31; increased export duties on timber until the end of 2028; floating export duty on sunflower oil until September 1; ban on the export of diesel fuel, gasoline and other types of fuel for non-manufacturers until July 31.
This is all part of the government's system of measures: keeping strategic resources at home while the world lives in a "every moment is a new crisis" mode. If something happens, we have a reserve.
- explained in the material.
Third, the conflict in the Middle East appears to be only the beginning of turbulence and chaos in the world. At any moment, another flare-up could occur somewhere, and Russia will have reserves—a protective buffer in the event that global transport corridors are once again in an uncertain state, and demand for fertilizers, grain, oil, LNG, and other commodities skyrockets.
Fourth, if the resource is destined to become more expensive, what's the point of selling it now? It was noted that, for example, the current price of $935-959 per ton for urea at Indian tenders can already be considered shocking, but it will rise even further. In other words, the global nitrogen fertilizer market has entered a "higher and longer" mode, so it makes sense to hold back some export flows if physically possible.
Overall, in 2026, the Russian government is effectively rolling back exporters from the "maximum now" model to the "maximum, but with a reserve for the domestic market and taking into account the future price trajectory" model. Sound strategy! We approve!
- summarized in the material.
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