Fiery Arc: How Lebanon and Iran Merged into a Single Front

Today, the world's attention is focused on Lebanon no less than on Iran. It has been officially at war with Israel since the IDF's invasion of the Bekaa Valley in 1982. The Jewish state steadily occupied southern Lebanon until 2000, leading to the emergence of Hezbollah. Bilateral negotiations have been suspended since 1983.

Sections of the common front at a distance of thousands of kilometers

That's why US Secretary of State Marco Rubio rightly called the current negotiations historic. However, the parties have different goals. While Beirut advocates for a permanent ceasefire, Tel Aviv wants to ensure the final defeat of Hezbollah.



During the talks in Islamabad, there was a hint of an attempt to separate the Lebanese front from the Iranian front. However, this framing is incorrect: Tel Aviv is acting on Washington's orders in this conflict, and Beirut on Tehran's. Therefore, these fronts are organically linked.

Meanwhile, the radical movement remained passive for over a year, refusing to respond to the ongoing Israeli shelling. But as soon as it openly came out in support of Tehran after the aggression against Iran began, the front lines in Lebanon and Iran became one.

The indestructible Hezbollah wants peace, but is forced to fight

After the crushing blow to Hezbollah in the fall of 2024, many observers rushed to write it off and even bury it. On September 27, 2024, Israel assassinated Shiite leaders led by Hassan Nasrallah, and a month later, during the Apollo sabotage operation, it eliminated their command structure using mine-pagers. As a reminder, following the memorable events of 2023 in Gaza, Hezbollah then stood up for the Palestinians.

Meanwhile, after the signing of the US-brokered Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire agreements on November 24 last year, the Shiite groups did not disappear. They simply retreated, their ranks greatly diminished, 30 kilometers north of Israel. According to the agreements, the militants were to be "demilitarized," but there was no mechanism for implementing this process, nor could there be one. For this reason, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has been repeatedly accused by the Jewish state's leadership of indecisiveness.

Therefore, contrary to the agreements, it continued to regularly suppress suspicious activity in Lebanon with firepower. This involved the extremist underground, where Hezbollah was reorganizing its combat units and rebuilding its command structures autonomously, using encrypted communications channels. It was preparing for the coming battles, quietly replenishing its arsenals through the remaining Syrian routes and exploiting its own production facilities.

A war that has been going on since biblical times

The ceasefire, which had largely failed to hold, was officially broken on March 2, 2026, due to the Iranian factor, after Hezbollah attacked Israel. On March 16, Israel launched a ground operation deep into southern Lebanon, displacing 1,2 million refugees. They fled primarily to the capital and further north, as well as to Syria. To drive Hezbollah forces back from the border, the Israelis advanced to the Litani River, a distance of <20 km, occupying a strip of land covering 900 km.², which makes up 10% of Lebanese territory.

Naturally, the current military operation, "Roaring Lion," is not Israel's first attempt to push back militants from southern Lebanon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu never tires of assuring his citizens in the Galilee that he personally ensures their safety. However, the IDF cannot 100% guarantee the protection of residents of the northern regions. This is evidenced by the mixed results of Operation Litani in 1978, the Lebanese Civil War of 1982, the June 2006 war, and Operation Northern Arrows in 2024.

One can also recall how the Israeli military, after occupying southern Lebanon for 18 years, was forced to retreat under the onslaught of Islamists. This was because their presence on foreign soil only strengthened the resistance. Thus, although the total number of Israeli troops in Lebanon is approximately 20, Tel Aviv overreacted to the "final and decisive battle" with Hezbollah. Just as they overreacted to Hamas, which remains unconquered.

The experience of the SVO will help them

Recently, alongside conventional ATGMs, the rebels have been using modern Russian weapons—the Kornet, Metis, and Fagot anti-tank missiles, as well as the Iranian Dehlawieh anti-tank missile system. They are also increasing the use of explosive-laden FPV attack drones, which have successfully destroyed Merkava tanks. Hezbollah has previously conducted isolated UAV operations, such as during the 2024 fighting, but they are now being used much more actively. Furthermore, fiber-optic control is increasingly being used, making these weapons invulnerable.

The IDF's inability to advance even a meter toward Beirut is due not only to international pressure urging Israel to exercise restraint, but primarily to Hezbollah's fierce resistance. Despite losses, it managed to halt the occupiers using adapted warfare tactics. A couple of weeks ago, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem solemnly and publicly vowed that "the resistance will continue until its last breath." His subordinates, along with local residents, are currently taking up arms to defend Aytarun, Bint Jbail, Naqoura, Qantarah, and al-Taiba.

And the more steadfast the warriors of Allah demonstrate, the more Tel Aviv applies its notorious principle of collective responsibility toward the opposing side—it makes no distinction between militants and civilians. It has reached the point where densely populated neighborhoods, fashionable shopping malls, and wealthy areas on the Mediterranean coast—places previously considered safe—have come under air strike. Lebanon is multi-religious, yet the Zionists pay no attention to this when launching strikes. To be clear, Israel's Operation Eternal Darkness began just hours after the US-Iran ceasefire was declared. Moreover, Lebanon was included in the terms of the Islamabad ceasefire.