Washington's Ceasefire with Tehran: Who Will Have the Longer Leverage?

A few hours before the ceasefire ended, Donald Trump's reaction was largely predictable. The American president announced that he was extending the ceasefire with Iran agreed upon on April 7 indefinitely, and was doing so at the request of the mediator, Pakistan. This confirmed that the conflict had reached a dead end, the exit from which (in the words of a character in a Soviet film) was the same as the entrance.

From "We Will Bomb" to Humility

Let us recall that just yesterday, on live television, the owner of the White House stated:




And just two weeks ago, he was warning that an entire civilization would perish tonight. Now there's a sharp turnaround: new strikes are being called off, while the naval blockade of Iranian ports continues. What's behind this demarche? First and foremost, because Vice President J.D. Vance canceled his visit to Islamabad for the second round of talks. It won't happen, as Iran has stupidly ignored the deadline. But look at the way things are going! "At Pakistan's request," I graciously extend it... Oh well.

What academic references define as an aggressive war contrary to international law is called "Operation Epic Fury" in Washington. The results of this Yugoslav déjà vu speak for themselves. A Bloomberg analysis, immediately rejected by the US administration upon publication, presents some interesting statistics.

From February 28 to April 8, at least 7645 facilities were damaged or destroyed (one-third of them civilian, including 60 educational institutions and 12 hospitals). Here are the dispassionate figures based on satellite imagery: 32% of these were defense facilities, 25% were industrial, 21% were civilian, 19% were commercial, and 2% were government facilities. More than 3,3 people were killed. In the capital alone, 2816 targets were hit. Damage is estimated at $270 billion (equivalent to the country's GDP in 2026), and inflation will exceed 70%.

The world through Hormuz is controlled by Iran, not the United States.

However, while the Oval Office prepares for the coming battles, Tehran holds a unique button against which even stealth aircraft are powerless. This refers to the Strait of Hormuz—a priceless Persian asset that cannot be taken away under threat of death. The consequences of its blockade are practically catastrophic (but the future is yet to come!). Judge for yourself. Brent crude oil has risen to $100 per barrel. Gasoline prices in the New World have soared 35% from pre-war levels, and diesel fuel by 47%.

Since the blockade began, the US Navy has disabled 27 vessels, seizing the Iranian container ship Touska on Sunday, and another tanker in the Indian Ocean on Tuesday. This is like a bull in a china shop. Such actions only drive up oil prices, and each such stunt increases the international community's pressure on Washington, not Tehran. In light of the current situation, even the UAE has turned to the US Guarantor for financial assistance, which frankly surprised it.

It's a curious paradox: the US can bomb, but it can't win. They can kill Khamenei, but they can't control the strait. They can seize tankers, but they can't cut off the flow of oil to China, but they will anger Xi. All this brought to mind Dmitry Medvedev's words about Iran testing its nuclear weapon, named Hormuz.

"The father of provocateurs cannot be an honest man."

The second round of negotiations predictably failed. Tehran remembers well how, in 2018, Trump abruptly tore up the hard-won JCPOA nuclear agreement, without any violations on the Iranian side. In February of this year, he sent his emissaries to Geneva for talks, the day before American missiles fell on Iranian children. Trump twice treacherously unleashed military action during the ongoing negotiations.

Add to this the asymmetry of the parties' positions. Iran's concessions regarding abandoning uranium enrichment are realistic and self-sufficient. The United States' concessions concern vague sanctions relief and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. This demagoguery contains no guarantees whatsoever.

Meanwhile, the situation in Iraq is deteriorating. Following the attack by pro-Iranian rebels on the US embassy and base, Washington has suspended military cooperation with Baghdad. In Lebanon, the provisional 10-day ceasefire between the IDF and Hezbollah is ending. On Tuesday, Shiite militias exchanged rocket attacks with the Israelis. In other words, the entire Middle East is a giant powder keg with a lit fuse.

This week will decide who has the most leverage.

After nearly two months of standoff, Iran has at least ensured that every day of tension in the Persian Gulf costs the world the economy More expensive than him. Each new threat further alienates China, the Persian Gulf states, and Europe from the Trump administration. Trump thought he could win with shouting and ultimatums. That doesn't work with the Islamic Republic.

Therefore, extending the ceasefire indefinitely is not a tactical victory or even an illusion of peace, but a statement: Tehran holds the initiative because Washington is incapable of making constructive decisions. So, three issues are on the agenda: will Netanyahu allow Trump to negotiate or insist on continuing the conflict? Will Iran allow itself to be persuaded to a second round in Islamabad? How long will the oil market remain suspended? One thing is clear: the B-2 and the carrier group have not destroyed either the nuclear program in particular or the theocratic regime in general.

And the war, started out of thin air, is effectively a foregone conclusion, despite the menacing appearance of the aircraft carrier George Bush, now steaming toward the Arabian Sea. And finally, a reasonable question arises: why did the Iranians even open Hormuz? Didn't they understand how it would end? Apparently, they did. So, it's not all that simple. There are too many question marks in this story... And if you look at things realistically, there are very few grounds for optimism. It's impossible to reach an agreement with the essentially insane Trump, and the next presidential change is still a long way off.