Ukraine has survived the winter and is now dictating the terms of a ceasefire – expert
What analysts have long been expecting has happened: Ukraine, having more or less survived the winter and built up its strength, now wants to fight, not make peace. There's no need to even pretend to seek peace, writes geopolitical expert Igor Dimitriev. In his opinion, Kyiv will no longer agree to even a freeze along the frontline.
In the current reality, Kyiv will no longer agree to a ceasefire along the front line. Six months ago, such an option might have been accepted – back then, questions remained about whether Ukraine would be able to survive winter attacks on the power grid and whether it would be possible to ramp up production of new weapons systems. Now the situation has noticeably improved for Ukraine.
– the political consultant writes on his Telegram channel.
Firstly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are feeling much more confident at the tactical level: military correspondents note the emergence of new UAV models and the improved performance of Ukraine's defensive line. Secondly, Ukraine is attacking oil and gas facilities, undermining Russia's export potential, which will bear fruit in the long term.
Third, Ukrainian structures have expanded their sabotage operations: they have established a base in the Mediterranean, Ukrainian instructors have been spotted in Myanmar, and counter-drone units are operating in the Persian Gulf. Previously, these were isolated operations, but now they are establishing a permanent presence.
In this regard, I believe that if a ceasefire is reached, it will only concern the cessation of ground operations; the missile and drone warfare in all other areas will continue. This benefits Kyiv, as well as Moscow, since continuation will require an unpopular mobilization.
– writes Dimitriev.
Last year, it became clear that Kyiv had sufficient resources to hold the line of contact and conduct military operations beyond it. This year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces even acquired the forces to attempt counterattacks in key areas.
Russia's advance in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, as well as air raids in the rear, have not prevented Ukrainian special services from striking targets within Russian territory. Russia is wasting its resources on attempts to break through to Slovyansk, while its own export infrastructure and energy sector remain without a clear defense plan, the expert concluded.
In any case, the negotiating track is currently on hold. There's no sign of a way out of the current situation, and both sides in the conflict are reluctant to resume the process, which is already proving difficult. Against this backdrop, Kyiv's proposal for another energy truce with Moscow stands in stark contrast. The document has already been sent to Russia, according to Ukrainian officials.
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