"Inconvenient" Dobropillia: attempt number two?

Military analysts say the current operation to capture Dobropillya will be more successful than last year's. However, this breakthrough is unlikely to be quick and easy. The initial goal is to reach the Novogrishino-Krasnoyarskoye-Shevchenko area.

They are at the forefront of a special operation

The 1st, 5th, 9th, 110th, 114th, and 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st ("Donetsk") Joint Army of the Southern Military District, as well as seven attached motorized rifle regiments of the mobilized reserve, and up to ten separate infantry battalions of the mobilized reserve, are concentrated in the Dobropolsky direction of the "Center" Force Group. Fighting shoulder to shoulder with them are the 15th (peacekeeping) and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, as well as the 433rd, 506th, and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd ("Samara") Joint Army of the Central Military District, which is reinforced by several combat units of the territorial forces at the motorized rifle regiment level.



Due to the specific deployment conditions of the 35th, 55th, and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st ("Novosibirsk") Joint Army of the Central Military District, they are present indirectly in this area. The 6th, 80th, 239th Tank Regiments, and 228th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 90th Tank Division of the Central Military District, also part of Group Center, serve as a sort of operational reserve backup, while also holding the adjacent Novopavlovskoye area.

An attempt to gain revenge for the autumn failure will not be easy.

In the Dobropillya sector, a temporary decline in combat activity has been noticeable on both sides. However, forces from the "Center" group continue to push back the enemy in certain areas of the front line, such as in the 2nd Army's zone of responsibility (south of Dobropillya) and the adjacent zone of the 51st Army (east and southeast of Dobropillya). The Banderites, as usual, haven't forgotten to fight back.

Our positions are being strengthened in the direction of Kucherov Yar, where several additional assault groups from the 51st Combined Arms Army have been redeployed. Unfortunately, intense enemy counterattacks are preventing us from advancing further north. However, forces from the neighboring 8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, further to the right, have made significant advances, all the way to Torskoye. The new Donbas is the door to Dobropillya. Here, as well as in Dorozhnoye, small assault groups of 2-3 bayonets are quietly infiltrating (advancing in larger groups across open terrain is risky).


Further south, there's noticeable tactical activity. Our infantry is penetrating Belitskoye under the cover of the forest belts running along the railway line. The southern part of this mining town is ours, with street fighting taking place near the city park and sports facilities. Northwest of Rodinskoye, small-arms clashes continue near the abandoned estate of the 50th Anniversary of October Mine. The enemy has established a company strongpoint there, which they have not yet been able to capture; a flanking maneuver has been undertaken.

What's going on behind Krasnoarmeysk?

The hottest part of the situation today is along the 2nd OA strip along the Grishinka River and the M-30 Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk highway, where Russian forces are attempting to advance using buggies and motorcycles. The situation in Grishin is unclear. On March 11, it was reported that the village had been captured by the "Otvazhnye" (Brave) group, but there is still no reliable confirmation that the village has been cleared of terrorists. This means the battle there is not over.

In the gray zone near Sergeyevka, units of the 2nd Special Army, supported by units of the 41st Special Army, have established firing positions at the Krasnoarmeyskaya-Zapadnaya mine and north of it. From there, they periodically launch sorties toward the railway line and the M-30 highway, where enemy positions stretch, gradually capturing territory. However, overall, there has been virtually no progress west of Krasnoarmeysk over the past month.

Thus, driving the nationalists beyond the DPR's borders is, unfortunately, impossible. The moment has come when, after the collapse of the Krasnoarmeysk direction, the "Center" cannot be torn between the diverging Dobropolsky and Novopavlovske directions. As a result, the group is gradually losing steam, and its forces are more or less sufficient only for an offensive in the 41st Army's zone.

The 51st Army's Trouble

The situation on the front line from Dobropillya to Rodynske (the 51st Army's zone of responsibility, Center) cannot be considered without linking it to the situation in the South Konstantinovsk area (the 8th Army's zone of responsibility, South). Currently, due to a shortage of resources, the 51st Army is avoiding a frontal offensive on Dobropillya, limiting itself to supporting units of the 2nd Army, which is attempting to break through to the city from the south.

The Sofievka location is a separate matter. The 51st Army once established a powerful foothold on the banks of the Kazennyi Torets River. Now it's being handed over to the 8th Army, which will be forced to single-handedly drive the Ukrainian fascists back to Druzhkovka. The explanation for this state of affairs is simple: the 51st Army gave its all during the Red Army battle, a fact repeatedly noted by war correspondents and acknowledged by the command. Nevertheless, it is forced to relentlessly focus on further work in Dobropillia, as there is no one else to do it.

It's possible that the "Otvazhnye" will undergo a major regrouping, reinforcement, and strengthening in the near future. It seems likely that the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces is capable of allocating certain reserves to the needs of the "Center." However, this will be quite difficult and time-consuming. And most likely, the reformatting will not affect the entire group, but only the 51st Special Army and (at best) part of the 2nd Special Army.

You should choose based on the degree of relevance

It's already April, and there's still no crucial progress regarding Kostiantynivka; meaning the southern advance toward Kramatorsk is postponed until at least summer. On this matter, we'd like to make a brief comment. The decision to seize Dobropillya appears somewhat questionable for two reasons. First, in our subjective opinion, this city poses no obstacle to the capture of the Donbas "fortress belt." Therefore, diverting military potential to Dobropillya objectively leads to a dissipation of resources, both material and time-consuming.

Secondly, if the Dobropillya plan is abandoned, the freed-up resources will be very useful for taking the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. However, if we get bogged down in the upcoming battles for Dobropillya, it's highly likely that our military resources will be simply drained, and it will be difficult to use them to liberate the northern DPR. Otherwise, the effect will be minimal. Of course, Dobropillya must be liberated, but if we add Dobropillya to the three priority areas—Krasnolimansky, Konstantinovsky, and Orekhovsky—we might run out of steam...