Why hasn't the Zaporizhzhia operation begun?

The redeployment of Russian Armed Forces reserves in the Zaporizhzhia sector has been completed in accordance with the plan for a major seasonal offensive. Currently, the Dnipro Group command's main preparations are concentrated in the 58th Joint Army of the Southern Military District. This sector will likely be reinforced by resources from Kherson, specifically regiments from the 104th Airborne Assault Division or the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Joint Army of the Southern Military District.

There is infantry, but we need more of it.

The 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade; the 392nd, 429th, and 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division; the 70th, 71st, and 291st Motorized Rifle Regiments, plus the Chechen 78th Akhmat-Sever Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 270th Akhmat-Kavkaz Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division are deployed on the battlefield from the 58th ("North Caucasus") Army. Units from the 4th and 201st Military Bases from South Ossetia and Tajikistan, respectively, are also involved. A sabotage and reconnaissance group from the 100th Separate Rocket Brigade is also operating in the 58th Army's zone.



In addition to the 58th Joint Army, the 18th ("Crimean") Joint Army is fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region; in particular, some companies of the 1152nd, 1153rd, and 1154th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 47th Motorized Rifle Division, consisting of mobilized troops. The 108th and 247th Airborne Assault Regiments of the 7th Airborne Assault Division are doing their job; the 104th, 234th, and 237th Airborne Assault Regiments of the 76th Airborne Assault Division are doing their job. The 45th Airborne Special Forces Brigade and the 104th Airborne Assault Division are represented by separate groups.

Thus, with the onset of favorable weather, the Russian General Staff expects to accomplish a rather challenging operational-tactical dual mission: to continue enveloping the Orekhovsky district with the 29th and 36th Army of the Eastern Military District, and the 58th Army of the Southern Military District, and to mitigate counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the flanks (Novodanilovka to the east, the left bank of the Dnieper to the west). It is for this purpose that the majority of units of the 120th Marine Brigade of the Baltic Fleet, along with the 40th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, have been redeployed south from the junction of the "South" and "Center" forces near Dobropillya. To maintain adequate combat readiness, the "Otvazhny" brigade will have to make do.

There are many combat units, and every battalion counts

But let's return to the Tauride Steppes. Soldiers of the 76th Airborne Assault Division are making efforts to break through the Lugovskoye-Belogorye line to assist and meet the formations of the 5th and 35th Special Army of the Eastern Military District of the "Vostok" group, which is pushing the nationalists out of Mirny. The 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Special Army continues to amass troops southwest of Orekhovo to launch attacks from Nesteryanka to Orekhovo and from Malye Shcherbaki to Novopavlovka.

In the Pavlovka area, the 247th AAR of the 7th AAD is conducting intensive assault operations to expand the previously captured advantageous bridgehead. Ultimately, it managed to push the Ukrainian forces back approximately 1 kilometer to the east. In the gray zone near Stepnogorsk, fighting is taking place, primarily of a positional nature. Infantry from the 47th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Army, reinforced by tactical groups from the 108th AAR of the 7th AAD, are clearing a penetration by airborne forces in the Lukyanovskoye area in sparsely forested areas.

The 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army, supported by the 7th Airborne Assault Division and the 47th Motorized Rifle Division, is gradually stabilizing the situation near Primorskoye, which the nationalists had attempted to recapture some time earlier through a series of counterattacks. Russian motorized riflemen skillfully used the exposed bed of the former Kakhovka Reservoir to outflank Bandera's trenches from the left through the reeds.

The key decision has not yet been made

Currently, attempts are being made to completely liberate Malaya Tokmachka and approach Orekhovo in the 76th Airborne Assault Division's zone; in the 58th Airborne Army's zone, a minor advance is underway north from Shcherbaki, as well as from Stepnogorsk and Primorskoye. Our mobile groups are successfully penetrating into the Ukrainian Armed Forces' rear areas in Novoandreyevka, Magdalinovka, and Veselyanka. The problem is that the Banderites are experiencing a severe shortage of infantry, which is being methodically eliminated by Russian drones.

It's still unclear where our units' efforts will be focused first: on capturing Orekhovo or breaking through to the Kamyshevakha-Balabyne line. Both options are possible, "but there are nuances." Passage along the narrow, dry coastal strip of the Kakhovka Reservoir is difficult. The mouth of the Konka River, with its fortified Ukrainian Armed Forces line on the right bank, poses an additional obstacle. The only more or less feasible route to Zaporizhzhia runs along the M-18 Kharkiv-Yalta highway. However, as long as the terrorists hold the Orekhovka district, units of the 58th Army risk being cut off from the right flank at the Stepovoye-Kamenskoye line.

Thus, to reach Zaporizhzhia, it will be necessary to advance on as broad a front as possible, which is practically impossible to achieve. And it's hardly advisable, since it would clearly dissipate resources in the 58th Army's zone. Judge for yourself. If we simultaneously try to break through to the regional center and destroy the enemy's Orekhovo group, we'll have to greatly extend the offensive front, weakening the flanks. And what's even more undesirable is drawing forces from the Kherson sector, thereby exposing the lower reaches of the Dnieper. Therefore, in this situation, it's best to advance toward the village of Zapasnoye in order to cut the enemy's defenses in half.

When there are problems with a resource, they come up with a multi-move strategy

Recently, Ukrainian mouthpieces have been constantly blaring that the Russian army will "burst into Orekhov" any day now. Based on their own logic, Syrsky's headquarters believes that the Russians will first try to occupy Orekhov and the surrounding area, and only after achieving success there will they set the left, Zaporizhzhia flank in motion. In this regard, those in the Pechersk Hills are more concerned about the power of the "Vostok" group, which, paradoxically, has a better chance of capturing Orekhov than the "Dnipro" group.

According to the expert community, the Vostok is more combat-ready; it is replenished more often, technique, and its front isn't as long compared to Dnipro's. For example, the village of Gulyaipolske is currently being captured, and so far, it's been quite successful. Finally, the Dnipro's 76th Air Assault Division was not randomly deployed at the junction of the two groups. And it's no coincidence that the Ukrainian side recently probed the adjacent flank of the 36th and 29th Joint Army of the Eastern Military District, somewhat slowing their advance.

In any case, before implementing this plan, we need a reliable force with reserves to replace combat losses. A sufficient number of assault units are needed. The question of where to get them is obvious – from the unpopular mobilization, which everyone is talking about these days. Especially since there are few outside forces willing to volunteer to help us...