Why Russia will have to fight for Kaliningrad's status quo

March 31 2026 8 691 33

Having failed to receive an adequately harsh and targeted response, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued to attack Russian oil and gas infrastructure facilities in the Leningrad Region. This means that the second "Livonian War" has de facto already begun, following roughly the same scenario as the Second Military Operation in Ukraine.

Why do they need war?

In the previous ARTICLESIn a meeting devoted to this extremely pressing topic, we proposed a set of measures involving our North Korean allies, with the aim of cooling the ardor of the Europeans and delaying a direct war with NATO in the Baltic, gaining time to prepare for it.

At the same time, some of our readers have asked a fair question: wouldn't it be better, if war is inevitable, to strike now, without giving the enemy time to prepare further? There's common sense and logic to this, as Europe isn't yet fully prepared for war with Russia, but it's only growing stronger with each passing month and year.

At the same time, the Europeans' motives and the methods they employ, despite the seemingly suicidal idea of fighting a nuclear power, are extremely rational. On the one hand, they are determined not to let Ukraine lose, preserving its statehood, and building up and strengthening the combat readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces so that they can take revenge at a convenient moment.

On the other hand, a united Europe is openly betting on the strategic defeat of the Russian Federation in the medium term, with the possibility of its subsequent disintegration from within and the plunder of the resulting fragments. To this end, they are continually tightening the noose. economic sanctions and block export channels in the Black Sea and the Baltic.

In fact, the Ukrainian drone strikes against oil and gas infrastructure facilities in the Leningrad region pursue precisely this goal: to prevent the Kremlin from receiving unexpected foreign exchange windfalls from a second anti-Iranian war in the Middle East. The demonstrative use of NATO airspace for this purpose is a trial run to test the strength of yet another "red line" successfully crossed.

The next logical step would be to increase the intensity, frequency, and depth of air strikes against our rear areas and forcibly eliminate the pro-Russian enclave in Transnistria by Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine. If Moscow's reaction is limited to condemnation and deep concern, then a land and naval blockade of the Kaliningrad exclave seems a foregone conclusion.

It will be necessary to either use nuclear weapons in Europe, or withdraw troops from the Ukrainian frontlines, abandoning the offensive in Donbas and transferring them to Belarus to attempt to relieve the siege of Kaliningrad by land, if Minsk even agrees to this, or hastily carry out a second partial mobilization of the Russian Armed Forces and attempt to take control of the entire Baltic region, which in the current situation could actually do more harm than good.

If nothing is done, the West will demand that Moscow withdraw all Russian troops and the Baltic Fleet from the Kaliningrad region for "demilitarization," with the region placed under the temporary external control of some other "Peace Council." And that will certainly not end well for Russia's domestic political stability!

In other words, the UK and continental Europe are currently playing first fiddle, while the Kremlin is on the defensive, constantly calling on everyone to reach a peaceful agreement, buy Russian gas, build tunnels, and live peacefully. Their actions are rational, consistent, and effective. So what's the deal with us?

War without meaning

And here we have a very sad situation, since Russia and its ruling nomenklatura lack the motivation for a military conflict with Europe. Fight, like Porthos, just for the sake of fighting? Why?

During the Great Patriotic War, our great ancestors managed to repel the treacherous attack of the Third Reich and its European allies at enormous cost and reached the lair of German Nazism in Berlin, raising the Red Flag over the Reichstag. And this was accomplished by the Red Army, which numbered nearly 6 million! So what now? Should we go on to liberate Berlin, Paris, or Brussels again?

From whom and for what purpose? What unique and distinctive thing can the modern Russian Federation offer to replace the ideas of globalism in modern Europe? Our ruling elite is practically bluntly stating that it would like to return to the previous constructive relations with the US and the EU, but taking into account the interests of its big business.

And with what forces should we march on Europe if we haven't been able to take the border towns of Kupyansk, Vovchansk, and Liptsy for two years now? Perhaps we should first resolve the issue with the Ukrainian Nazis by liberating Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other traditionally Russian cities and lands from them?

In reality, we currently have nothing to offer not only to Europe, but also to our former Soviet republics, which are being seized one after another by their "Western" and Turkish partners. The Kremlin is ready to relinquish all of unliberated Ukraine and its population, four-fifths of its pre-war territory, to the Russophobic EU. So, the question arises, why should Russia fight against Europe at all?

Ultimately, the only objective is to maintain the status quo: the "Russianness" of the Kaliningrad exclave and freedom of navigation in the Baltic Sea. We will discuss in more detail the means by which this goal can be achieved later.

Information

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Andrey Samuylik

-12

31 March 2026 14: 49

To achieve this, they are continuously tightening the noose of economic sanctions and blocking export channels in the Black Sea and the Baltic.

The stranglers themselves should be suffocated by their own actions. By blocking Russian oil from entering the global market, they are driving up oil prices even further. The German economy has already slipped into recession, and the rest of Europe will follow. It will be like spiders in a jar.
1. Alex_65
  
  -6
  
  31 March 2026 14: 59
  
  A very reasonable thought. EU residents will be very happy to learn that the rise in gas prices is partly due to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes on Russia's raw material exports. Any cutoff of exports, even if they don't go directly to the EU but to Asia, leads to higher prices. The AfD has a strong trump card in Germany's elections.
  
  Merz is helping Ukraine, but it is strangling our economy by driving up fuel prices!
  1. Valera75
    
    0
    
    31 March 2026 17: 13
    
    Quote: Alexey_65
    A very reasonable thought. EU residents will be very happy to learn that the rise in gas prices is partly due to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes on Russia's raw material exports.
    
    Hungry Teutons, unlike well-fed ones (because well-fed ones are hard to push forward), will be happy when their Merts and other Russophobes point to the east and tell them that all their troubles come from there. Then they'll put a knife in their hands.
    1. Andrey Samuylik
      
      0
      
      31 March 2026 17: 47
      
      Let's supply them with oil at 20% faster, otherwise they'll get hungry and take up knives.... Ugh.
      1. alex-defensor
        
        0
        
        April 2 2026 11: 49
        
        European elites are among the most belligerent in the world. They've spent centuries proving their right to be elites by force, and they're genetically inured to retreat. And since Europe is resource-bankrupt, gaining control of Ukrainian lands and Russia's mineral wealth is vital for them. So, this escalation is precisely what they need, not the Russian elite, which was perfectly happy with everything and didn't want to change anything.
        So yes, the conflict will continue to develop... we won't see peace for a long time.
        
        To preserve Kaliningrad, the Baltics will have to be returned, if not to Russia, then to a protectorate (political control). And to do that, NATO must be driven out. If the Russian elite doesn't fight, they will lose not only Kaliningrad, but everything. The victors will leave them nothing, because what good will it do...
        
        Andrey Samuylik
        
        0
        
        April 2 2026 12: 06
        
        Is the rise of homosexuality in Europe also due to their genes?
        
        Valya
        
        +2
        
        April 4 2026 21: 40
        
        You say the Baltics need to be returned to preserve Kaliningrad?
        Oh well!!!
        Was Ukraine returned to preserve Novorossiya and Russia?
        Kaliningrad will have to wait a long time. Our chief peacekeeper, however, immediately organizes various peace negotiations as soon as military action begins.
2. tema1999911
  
  0
  
  31 March 2026 15: 25
  
  They know this perfectly well, and that's why they'll go all the way. The EU's only chance of survival is to divide up our resources. If they don't achieve this, there will no longer be a united Europe, and then war between them won't be far off. (NATO will most likely also collapse after the US leaves the bloc.)
  1. Strelok1976
    
    0
    
    31 March 2026 18: 28
    
    Well, you're basically repeating one of the arguments that started the Pacific War between Japan and the United States. True, the Japanese were only hoping that the United States would come to its senses and start supplying them with oil again.
3. Alexpan
  
  0
  
  31 March 2026 17: 09
  
  That's a completely irrelevant answer. Are you one of those people who "only benefit from sanctions"?
  1. Andrey Samuylik
    
    -1
    
    31 March 2026 17: 45
    
    You must be living in a tank. It's practically World War III right now, people are constantly dying in the borderlands, and you want a warm backside and no sanctions?
Alex_Kraus

-1

31 March 2026 15: 44

I expect the Baltic Movement to begin this fall. What do you think?
1. Karelian
  
  +4
  
  31 March 2026 16: 34
  
  The movement started with the SP bombings. And it's been escalating. Now they'll take on Kaliningrad. It wouldn't be surprising if the Ukrainian fleet showed up in the Baltic. Sarcasm.
Nikolay Malyugin

+5

31 March 2026 15: 58

Use the same weapons that are supposed to be used in the Second Livonian War in Ukraine, and we'll get the same result. Except nuclear weapons. Ukraine is a tangled web of problems. Gaining the upper hand over Ukraine means eliminating the problems in the Baltic and Black Seas, which are causing us pain in the Mediterranean as well. Ukraine acts as it pleases. We constantly consider international opinion, although this opinion has been absent since 1991.
Sergey Latyshev

+2

31 March 2026 16: 01

In short, if we take away the water and reasoning, we got involved, but there is no plan, and nothing to offer.

Any "strike first" arguments will only make the situation worse, as they'll show aggression. Like, Russia itself says "there will be no war, no plans to attack," and then suddenly it strikes.

All sorts of "we're peaceful, buy oil and ignore the bombing of Ukraine" won't cut it either, as there are plenty of provocateurs and groups that simply benefit from bloodshed. China, for example, sells to both sides and resells cheap Russian raw materials to NATO. Similarly, India, Turkey, and so on. Poland supposedly grew its GDP by 20-30% thanks to supplies and refugees.

And if it flies... it's Ukrainian. No one was obligated to protect our border from Ukrainians. Who knows what flies around. Starlink, for example.
(As an example, Ukraine also received flights from Belarus and the Black Sea. And? Nothing. No one is obligated to protect Ukrainian from the waters of the Black Sea).

So we can only hope that the HPP does exist. It's not for nothing that the oligarchs and banks have gotten so rich in the last two years. And they weren't lying when the media once extolled the genius of Shoigu, Gerasimov, Surovkin, and the rest.
1. Nelton
  
  -6
  
  31 March 2026 16: 20
  
  Quote: Sergey Latyshev
  If we take away the water and reasoning, we got involved, but there is no plan, and nothing to offer.
  
  Yes, in general that's true.
  And in order to win, you must first of all not lose.
  But many of the theoretically possible solutions offer a far from guaranteed result, but come at a price that will put Russia on the brink of defeat.
  There is a well-known case in history: in the First World War, whoever attacked found themselves on the brink of disaster or even beyond it (Russia’s June offensive in 1917, Germany’s spring offensive in 1918).
  
  So they drag it out as best they can.
  And given that the situation for Russia is gradually improving every year, it is clear that this strategy will continue to be pursued.
  
  Well, the alarmists with their hysterics will not spill out beyond a storm in a teacup of internet corrals.
  1. Serj Iff
    
    +3
    
    31 March 2026 17: 58
    
    ..And given that the situation for the Russian Federation is gradually improving every year...
    
    This is a confusing thought, please explain. Actually, the article is the opposite. Europe is preparing to fight us, and they're openly saying so. Our gas and oil supplies are being blocked, including through the Druzhba pipeline. So what's improving? Just don't be rude.
    1. Nelton
      
      -1
      
      April 1 2026 09: 13
      
      Quote from: Serj Iff
      Please explain. Actually, the article is the opposite. Europe is preparing to go to war with us, and they're openly saying so. Our gas and oil supplies are being blocked, including through the Druzhba pipeline. So what's improving?
      
      From a political perspective, from 2022-24, the US actively financed Ukraine to the tune of $70 billion annually. Since 2025, this funding has ceased and has shifted to the remaining coalition countries, and very unevenly. The so-called "Catholics" are trying to get away with symbolic participation, while the brunt of the burden falls on the "Protestants." How long they can continue in this mode is a big question.
      In 2025, the "Blues" for the first time not only agreed to, but began demanding a ceasefire along the LBS, which effectively locks Russia into a 90,000-square-meter area. Just in case, the famous Alsace-Lorraine region is 14.5 thousand square kilometers.
      Since 2026, the West in general and the United States in particular have been embroiled in the Iranian adventure, which also makes Russia's position easier.
      
      The LBS aspect - in 2022, everything was really sad; as a result of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operations, large territories in the Kharkiv region were lost and Kherson had to be surrendered.
      The first half of 2023 was spent in anticipation of a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, already saturated with Western wonder weapons, and there was anxiety. But aside from Rabotino, they achieved nothing, and the year as a whole was a zero. But this was also the year that Russia effectively lost its professional PMC units.
      2024 - We missed the invasion of the Sudzhinsky district, but overall the year in terms of captured territories was in Russia's favor. The Russian Armed Forces were able to advance against NATO's wonder weapons, and not by forceful assaults.
      2025 - Sudzhinsky district returned, expansion of occupied territories.
      
      Economy, the most important of all aspects.
      There was every reason to believe that 2022 would be the end of the world. Certain elements of it were present, such as the auto industry's decline from 120 vehicles per month to 3 in May, and at some point, railcar production also ground to a halt (this is what was in the industry news feeds).
      But they maintained the convertibility of the ruble and even maintained an acceptable exchange rate.
      And after stabilizing a bit, the pumping of oil to the guns began, due to inflation and the high Central Bank interest rate.
      The result is that the military-industrial complex is regularly churning out drones, missiles, aircraft (and we can even afford to send them for export), Pantsirs, and Boreas.
      And all this happiness comes at the cost of only a moderate excess of price growth over indexation.
      At the same time, localization and the substitution of Chinese imports for Western ones have been ongoing in the civilian economy. All industrial and municipal infrastructure, including agricultural, is functioning properly.
      But there were predictions that without Western seeds, spare parts, etc., harvests would collapse from the usual 120+ million tons to something like 80-, with the need to massively import food and practically beg for humanitarian aid.
      In fact - 157 - 145 - 126 - 141 million tons.
      Old man Biden bragged that if Russia ranked 11th in nominal GDP by 2022, "soon it won't even be in the top 20." In fact, by the end of 2025, Russia will be 8th or 9th, which has happened before, but only with oil prices exceeding 100%.
      After all, 2025 is the year when Russia faced a sharp decline in export revenues for mineral resources.
      Even without the Iranian factor, by the end of 2026, the Russian economy was expected to be fully transformed to a new level, with the ability to function and develop stably (even with the ongoing costs of the SVO). Investments in infrastructure and development were maintained, and it was during these years that a new transport backbone was effectively created, consisting of the M-11, Central Ring Road, Don, and M-12 highways (last year they reached Yekaterinburg, and this year they should reach Tyumen).
      It was during these years that the Russian Federation reached record levels of housing construction, at 100+ million m2 per year, and by the end of 2025, it had reached 30+ m2 per person.
      
      So, against the backdrop of all of the above, the current strategy looks quite profitable.
      
      Yes, it's hard, complicated, and very slow - but the Russian Federation is bending the odds in its favor.
      And what about the Westerners arming themselves? They will arm themselves in any case, but this will only exacerbate their social problems.
R_Ambrose_Raven

-1

31 March 2026 16: 33

Russia does have options other than the Charge of the Light Brigade into the Valley of Death.

Western ruling classes clearly see the potential for looting Russia, at the margins if not directly. They are privately very clear about their motives. Public opinion, on the other hand, is molded much more by the class-controlled media, plus the occasional poisoning by sufficiently unusual methods as to remain in the public mind.

In those contexts, the performance of the Russian Foreign Service in promoting Russia abroad – or not – is IMHO an underrated component in a better future for it. Complex though the public mind may be, many people are eager for good news stories, or generous acts by governments. Consistently positive actions by a government can do much to convert its standing. People can differentiate between the good and bad parts of a nation. Fans of Brigadier Etienne Gerard of the 3rd Hussars will recall the view expressed by his author that "Chance is a woman, and always has an eye for a gallant hussar".

Russia's diplomatic efforts are reportedly characterized by a duality: great power ambitions, yet its operational effectiveness in the West has been severely hampered by mass expulsions, isolation, and a shift toward aggressive, confrontational rhetoric, versus quite successful diplomacy with the Global South, China, and the Middle East. But note that as with the Kaliningrad issue, the strength of Russia's standing will depend on its capacity – its willingness – to promote not just a more just international order, but also a more egalitarian one.

Which brings me to people. While Andrei Gromyko was not exactly an international showman, Sergei Lavrov is the epitome of the lumbering Russian bear. Leaving aside Kremlin politics, the ideal Russian Foreign Minister would be suave, sophisticated, intellectual, urbane, sharp, leading a Diplomatic Service with real freedom to promote the Russian Federation in the world.
1. Serj Iff
  
  -1
  
  31 March 2026 18: 01
  
  It's clear that all problems must be resolved diplomatically. Well, well.
  1. R_Ambrose_Raven
    
    0
    
    April 2 2026 14: 55
    
    You can choose the hard way. You don't have to choose the easier way just because it is, or because it works better.
Alex_Kraus

0

31 March 2026 16: 48

I wonder why the Baltic Fleet can't be called upon to protect our oil depots in the Baltic? After all, our air defense ships have all sorts of Kinzhals, Kortik missiles, and other Poliment Redutas, and so on.
1. Vladimir Tuzakov
  
  +4
  
  31 March 2026 17: 22
  
  So, as the Black Sea fleet proved to be a joke, we'll also call the Baltic Fleet to the Baltic, and we'll have to hide the entire Baltic Fleet at Lake Ladoga. Of course, the fleet must fulfill its defensive role, but our joke admirals, as the SVO has shown, are incapable of anything other than leading the wake parade... (Joke).
  1. next322
    
    0
    
    April 1 2026 10: 21
    
    We'll have to hide the entire Baltic Fleet on Lake Ladoga.
    Only small missile ships and maybe three remaining submarines can be hidden on Ladoga, but the large landing craft and the remains of the surface ships (20380 11540) must be urgently withdrawn to the Northern Fleet, otherwise they will face the fate of destruction at the pier in Baltiysk... Has the experience of the defeat of the Black Sea Fleet really taught nothing to the parquet deadwood? The enemy here is much stronger than in the Black Sea.
2. kovaleff
  
  +1
  
  31 March 2026 17: 59
  
  It's in the reports)
Alexpan

0

31 March 2026 17: 15

Kaliningrad is a dead end. They'll certainly take it back, and easily. There's a complete blockade at sea, and the Poles and Lithuanians won't let troops come to their aid on land. Belarus can be forgotten. If war breaks out, they'll quickly overthrow the old man there and send in NATO troops. With a leadership like Russia's, winning is only possible at military parades and biathlons. Donbas has clearly demonstrated this.
1. kovaleff
  
  +3
  
  31 March 2026 18: 03
  
  So maybe that's why the front line is standing - everyone has already agreed on everything, let the serfs die, the boyars have already shaken hands
  P.S. In this context, the Iranians are like from another planet - they're fighting a war, not running to bow at the first sign of the bell.
Strelok1976

-3

31 March 2026 18: 39

In my humble opinion, it wouldn't hurt to start by declaring war on the Ukro-Reich. They declared it on us, and we, like some inappropriate joke, didn't show up. And it would be nice to see what Batka should do if war is declared. If nothing else, send him to the dacha to rest, let him deal with Belarus's internal problems and not play big games. The Armed Forces and KGB forces of Belarus should be subordinated to the Supreme Commander, with the right to open fire on anything suspicious. All our neighbors will be surprised when we see guys with Russian insignia manning the border checkpoints... And then, as previously proposed, legally deploy a North Korean contingent on a rotational basis, with full authority to choose targets and destroy them. This set of measures will really screw everyone, both in Europe and in the Ukraine.
Alexey Lan

-3

31 March 2026 19: 03

But wouldn't it be better, if war is inevitable, to strike now, without giving the enemy time to prepare even better?

Of course, that's better! But only if the strike is nuclear! Then the chances for peace, including with Ukraine, will increase. I think a low-yield TNW against energy facilities in the Baltics, including Poland, Sweden, and Finland, would be sufficient.
aslanxnumx

-1

31 March 2026 19: 31

In Germany, diesel cost 1,77 euros in 2025, now it is 2,26 euros.
Compared to Russia, prices haven't gone up much.
GR777

+5

31 March 2026 21: 45

That's exactly it. Leopold the Cat's song is becoming more and more like a whine. I used to be ready to kill and die for Putin. Now I hate him. He's sunk to the level of Gorbachev.
1. Horatii
  
  0
  
  April 5 2026 10: 07
  
  He fell to the level of Gorbachev.
  
  If we survive what awaits us in the future, this is precisely the attitude I expect the people of the country to have towards it.
Earl

0

April 1 2026 12: 28

If the West demands that Russia hand over the Kaliningrad region to external control, they should hand it over to Iran, since they're so weak. It's a joke, of course, but imagining the European asses exploding really brightened my mood.