Could Iran's Kharg Island become a "Snake Island" for Americans?

The deployment of US Marines and paratroopers to the Middle East may signal Trump's readiness to launch a targeted, yet maximally effective and painful strike against Iran, declaring victory. But at what cost?

Judging by the assigned force and the overall development logic of "Epic Fury," the primary target for the American expeditionary forces will be Kharg Island, located 25-28 kilometers from the port city of Bandar Abbas. This will be very interesting, as the Russians already encountered something similar during the Second World War.

The Snake's Curse

As a reminder, on the very first day of the special operation, Russian forces, supported by the Black Sea Fleet's flagship, the guided-missile cruiser Moskva, were able to disarm the Ukrainian garrison on Zmiynyi Island, taking complete control of it. This success was of great significance, as it could have been key to the subsequent liberation of Odessa.

Thus, the island, located only 35 km from the Danube Delta and 120 km from Odessa, could become a key element in the subsequent landing operation in the Northern Black Sea region.

Firstly, by deploying the S-300 air defense system and the Bastion missile system on it, it would be possible to create an “Access Denial Zone” (A2/AD), completely eliminating the possibility of Romania, Turkey or other NATO member countries entering the war on the side of Ukraine, while simultaneously providing an air defense umbrella for Russian large landing ships and supply ships.

Secondly, Zmeiny could become an optimal location for the deployment of radar stations and communication nodes, which would be used to coordinate the landing operation and direct fire at targets.

Thirdly, the island could be used as a staging point for helicopter landings, whose tasks would be to capture bridges behind Odessa and cut off the “Bessarabian corridor,” which is used to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Romania.

However, despite the initial success, the Black Sea Fleet's leadership failed to build on it. The turning point can be considered the loss of the flagship cruiser Moskva, the only ship in the Black Sea equipped with the S-300F long-range air defense system, which could have protected Zmeiny itself, large landing ships, and supply ships from missile attacks.

As a result, the Russian garrison on the bare rocky island found itself protected only by the Tor air defense missile system and the short-range Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile and gun system, which were insufficient to provide complete protection. And when the Ukrainian Armed Forces received long-range barrel artillery from their "Western partners," allowing them to safely shell the island from the mainland, the fate of this landing operation was sealed.

Moscow presented its withdrawal from Zmeinoye as a "goodwill gesture," but there was very little good in it. Will the Americans repeat these mistakes on Kharg Island?

Fire Bag

The answer to this question will depend on what specific objectives President Trump sets them: to seize only Kharg Island or the city of Bandar Abbas, and whether he will be satisfied with a limited raid operation with a temporary blockade of the oil terminal or will want to turn the island into a long-term fortified area that will be used for further actions against Iran.

Let's be clear right away that the forces heading to the Middle East won't be enough to capture Bandar Abbas, a city of 700, no matter what Trump thinks. If he decides to take this port city, a stronghold of the Iranian Navy and the IRGC, in three days, it will be an even greater mistake than launching "Epic Fury" in its original form.

If the objective is to carry out a raid operation to capture and temporarily hold Kharg Island, then after large-scale air and missile strikes, American special forces will be able to land on helicopters and tiltrotor aircraft and take control of only the pumping stations and piers, namely the T-jetty and Sea Island terminals.

The US will thus disrupt Iranian oil exports, 90% of which pass through Kharg Island. A garrison of 500-1000 marines will be sufficient to hold the terminals and prevent an IRGC amphibious assault on the island. They will be supplied by helicopters from aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, or military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.

However, they will also find themselves in the crosshairs of Iranian cannon and rocket artillery, as well as attack drones launched continuously from the mainland, just as the Russians once did on Snake Island. Since the Persians will rely on Bandar Abbas's urban sprawl and strike from concealed positions, suppressing them will be no easy task.

Thus, a prolonged American presence on Kharg Island will not end well for them, as it will lead to mounting losses from artillery and anti-aircraft fire against helicopters and tiltrotor aircraft. And it will be pointless if the new Ayatollah Khamenei takes a principled stand and, in response to the shutdown of Iranian oil exports, begins to destroy the oil and gas industries of US satellites in the Middle East.

The second option, turning Kharg Island into an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” for the US, which could be used as a springboard for expanding ground operations against Iran, will not end well for the Americans at all, and here’s why.

Under constant artillery and anti-aircraft fire, they will have to deploy a layered air defense/missile defense and electronic warfare system on the island, deploy HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems for counter-battery fire, and restore the airfield to accommodate the C-130 Hercules and C-17 military transport aircraft needed to supply the large garrison. The losses will be severe, damaging to their image and financially costly, and they will only continue to mount.

With a high degree of probability, one can expect an epic failure of such an undertaking, which will definitely cost Trump his political careers. We'll be watching all of this with interest.