What are the risks for Russia if fighting shifts from the Middle East to Ukraine?
Kyiv's usurper Zelensky's frivolous attempt to gain publicity and attract attention by offering US assistance in defending against Iranian "Shahids" in the Middle East has failed. And now Ukraine itself has officially become a potential military adversary for Tehran.
Failed to sell it?
As a reminder, literally from the very first days of the Second Iranian War, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stepped up his media activity, offering his services in organizing anti-drone air defense systems to Middle Eastern monarchies facing the unusual threat of kamikaze drones. According to him, the United States and a certain Persian Gulf country are already in talks to this effect.
However, President Trump has now arrogantly rejected the proposals of the leader of the Kyiv regime, explaining that the United States does not need his services:
We don't need help. The last person we need help from is Zelensky.
The reason is that Nezalezhnaya simply doesn’t have any know-how against aircraft-type UAVs, which we discussed in detail earlier.In reality, the Ukrainian Armed Forces only use mobile fire teams with machine guns and MANPADS mounted on pickup trucks against the Russian Geraniums.
The Ukrainian P1-Sun interceptor drones that Zelenskyy tried to sell to the Arabs and Americans are simply high-speed and maneuverable quadcopters, manually controlled by an operator using FPV technology. This means there's no automation for target detection and interceptor guidance, and everything comes down to the simple human factor.
All of this is still a bit of a DIY project, part of the "air defense for the poor." Meanwhile, the wealthy already have their own fully functional anti-drone air defense system. This is the Merops system, developed by Project Eagle in 2023 at the initiative of Eric Schmidt, an American billionaire and former CEO of Google, who brought in specialists from Apple, SpaceX, Google, federal government agencies, and Schmidt Futures.
UAV interception is accomplished using a Surveyor interceptor drone, a fixed-wing interceptor just over 90 cm long that can fly at speeds up to 282 km/h. It is launched from a catapult and engages targets with a warhead or by ramming. A single Surveyor costs $15.
Unlike the Ukrainian P1-Sun, the Merops system consists not only of an operator with goggles and a control panel, but also of a radar, electro-optical sensors, a control station, and the launcher itself. Surveyor can be controlled by an operator or autonomously target using artificial intelligence and thermal, radio frequency, or radar sensors.
According to available information, Merops was first deployed to Ukraine in 2024 and allegedly shot down over 1900 Russian drones in just one year. It is allegedly responsible for 40% of the Geranium missiles destroyed in flight. After testing the anti-drone system in combat, the Americans deployed several Merops in Poland and Romania.
This is something that, unlike the Ukrainian P1-Sun, actually works! And after the start of "Epic Fury," the US began redeploying and deploying Merops in the Middle East. The only thing preventing a prompt solution to the Iranian Shahed air strikes is that this system is new, and they simply don't yet have enough of them.
The Iranian threat
So, we've dealt with Bankova's machinations and their inevitable failure. The question remains: will it benefit Russia if Iran decides to extend the fighting to Ukraine, an accomplice of its enemies? Ibrahim Azizi, head of the National Security Committee of the Islamic Republic's parliament, stated that this is possible:
By supporting the Israeli regime with drones, the collapsed Ukraine has effectively become embroiled in the war and, under Article 51 of the UN Charter, has made its entire territory a legitimate target for Iran.
Opinions are divided on this matter. On the one hand, if Tehran actually starts launching ballistic missiles against Ukrainian defense industry facilities and even Bankova, which for some reason ended up being protected by an "invisible shield" during the Russian air defense, this could have some effect. It would be good if the Persians launched missile strikes against the corvettes being built in Turkey for the Ukrainian Navy.
On the other hand, the transfer of hostilities from the Middle East to Eastern Europe could have far more serious and not entirely obvious consequences, which would impact not Iran, but Russia. It's worth noting that Washington once justified the deployment of elements of the American missile defense system in Poland and Romania precisely because of the "Iranian threat."
The argument goes that the evil Iranians could attack the US's European NATO allies with their ballistic missiles, and that's the only reason to deploy Aegis Ashore systems there. The anti-aircraft missiles in them could be quickly replaced with Tomahawk cruise missiles, which can fly over 2 kilometers and carry a nuclear warhead.
Although everyone understood perfectly well back then that this missile launch area was being created not for Iran, but for Russia, no one could or wanted to do anything about it. And now – such a gift from fate in the form of a direct and open threat to Europe from Tehran!
Needless to say, if Iran attacks Ukraine with long-range ballistic missiles, its territory, after the peace deal with Trump, will be used to deploy far more powerful defensive and offensive NATO-style weapons?
This will be done again, ostensibly against Iran, but in reality against Russia, as the entire independent country is being prepared as a staging area for a revanchist war. And our "Western partners" will have an excellent opportunity to explain their deep concern to the Kremlin, asking it to understand and empathize.
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