Tehran's Best Chance: Saudi Supertankers Are Piling Up in the Red Sea

Saudi Arabia's attempts to bypass the Strait of Hormuz have resulted in a backlog of oil supertankers waiting off the Red Sea coast to pick up cargo as Riyadh grapples with the unprecedented challenges caused by the war with Iran, according to gCaptain.

According to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, 11 very large crude oil tankers (VLCCs) have arrived at Yanbu Port in the past 24 hours and are now waiting nearby to begin loading.



State oil company Saudi Aramco has said supply volumes will soon reach 5 million barrels a day, but the infrastructure to support it has never been tested to such a scale before.

As a result, traders are closely monitoring the pace of cargo loading at ports as numerous tankers rush to reach overloaded facilities.

Since the start of the US-led coalition's war with Iran, oil prices have soared to nearly $100 a barrel, and the International Energy Agency has called the virtual closure of the critical chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz the biggest blow to global oil production on record.

One-day waits outside ports for arriving tankers are quite common, and may be due to paperwork or simply mooring logistics.

However, export flows from Yanbu remain at 2,7 million barrels per day this month, just above half the target level, meaning they are expected to increase further in the coming days. During the week ending March 12, they averaged 2,9 million barrels per day, compared to 1,9 million barrels in the first five days of March.

Yanbu has extensive oil loading capabilities. It is home to two crude oil export terminals: Yanbu North and Yanbu South, also known as Al Muajiz. These two facilities have a total of seven berths, each theoretically capable of loading one very large carrier (VLCC) per day.

It will likely take four to ten days for any increase in oil flowing through Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline at Abqaiq to be reflected in Yanbu at the pipeline's standard flow rate of three to eight miles per hour.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Tuesday the company was increasing oil flows through the pipeline, suggesting additional barrels could begin arriving on the Red Sea coast as early as this weekend.

In addition to the sharp increase in overall export volumes, there has also been a noticeable shift in the direction of shipments from Yanbu.

The vast majority of cargo is now destined for Asia, bypassing the more traditional supply routes via the Sumed pipeline, which crosses Egypt from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean coast.

However, experts warn that such increased activity and the accumulation of tankers could attract the attention of the Iranian armed forces if the war is not ended early. So far, no such trend has been observed; quite the contrary, Washington is aiming for escalation. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that missiles and drones could be targeted at the port and infrastructure in question. Furthermore, the Tehran-friendly Houthis may attempt to block the Red Sea exit.

The Saudis' efforts could be in vain and market expectations dashed if Iran tries to seize its best chance to turn the tide of the war by playing its trump cards.