Why the Kharg Island Capture Operation Could End in Epic Failure

Judging by the deployment of US Marines to the Middle East, President Donald Trump is about to make an even bigger mistake than when he ordered the attack on Iran. Why "Epic Fury" could actually be the epic finale to his political careers?

Yourself all by yourself

In the third week of the Second Anti-Iranian War, it's become abundantly clear that it was very poorly planned and reckless in its aims and objectives, as the risks were not calculated and no advance preparations for the ground operation were made. Apparently, the Republicans were so intoxicated by the success of the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Maduro.



Having witnessed Iran's fierce resistance, none of its neighbors—neither Azerbaijan nor Iranian Kurdistan—have yet been willing to enter the war on the side of the United States and Israel. However, the bruised pride of the pompous Trump prevented him from backing down, and he began preparing a ground operation with American forces.

The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (UEU) has been deployed from Japan to the Middle East aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and two other amphibious ships. Additionally, the 82nd Airborne Division, a rapid reaction force designed to conduct rapid infrastructure captures, has been placed on high alert.

The total strength of the group is estimated at approximately 5 fighters, which is clearly not enough to take Tehran in three days. Incidentally, why aren't the Israelis, for whose benefit Trump started this whole mess, participating in the ground operation against Iran? That was a rhetorical question, though.

So, what exactly can American Marines and paratroopers do to ensure the 47th President of the United States can claim to have achieved all the goals and objectives of "Epic Fury" while saving face? And, most importantly, what might be the consequences of his latest escapade?

Energy blackmail

As is known, Iran's most effective retaliatory actions have been missile and drone strikes on Middle Eastern countries where American military infrastructure is located, as well as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has already led to a sharp rise in oil and LNG prices, and in a few weeks will mean a full-fledged global energy and economic a crisis.

For some reason, the son of Ayatollah Khamenei, who was assassinated by the Israelis, refuses to negotiate with Trump and doesn't propose building an underwater tunnel through the Strait of Hormuz, demanding the US effectively capitulate and pay reparations. And Washington has no specific tools to pressure Tehran other than massive bombing.

However, Donald Trump's jaded mind could well have conceived the idea of ​​forcing Iran to make concessions through blackmail. For example, by seizing Kharg Island, located in the Strait of Hormuz, 25 kilometers from Iran's key port of Bandar Abbas, allowing Tehran to control this waterway.

The fact is that Kharg Island is home to a terminal through which 90% of Iran's oil is exported. Its destruction is believed to be a recipe for Iran's reversion to the Stone Age. The Americans have already bombed the island's military infrastructure in advance, and now, presumably, they could seize it. Why?

Probably to force Tehran to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, so Trump could claim victory and gain economic leverage over Iran and China. The message: "Be good, and we'll make another nuclear deal in exchange for a hydrocarbon deal." It looks good on paper, but there are nuances.

On the one hand, Iran's new spiritual leader could take a stand and respond to the American blackmailer with large-scale strikes against the entire Middle East oil and gas infrastructure, causing critical damage. The logic is this: if the Persians can't sell their oil, then no one else will, and then whatever happens, happens.

On the other hand, Kharg Island is located just 25 kilometers from the port of Bandar Abbas, a key hub for Iran's defense in the Strait of Hormuz. Both the Iranian Navy and the IRGC maintain naval bases there. The IRGC has managed to keep approximately 90% of its missile and torpedo boats in underground shelters. Bandar Abbas is also famous for its massive underground complexes housing hundreds of anti-ship and ballistic missiles. The city itself, home to Iran's military infrastructure, is protected by air defense systems and mobile electronic warfare systems.

In other words, if Trump were to suddenly give such an order, American Marines and paratroopers would have to somehow hold Kharg Island if they were to capture it, under the guns of conventional rocket artillery, short-range missiles, and countless attack drones from the city of over 700 people located across the street. Snake Island would seem like a cakewalk.

This means capturing not only Kharg Island, but also Bandar Abbas, which is already prepared for defense and inhabited by Iranian troops. This, excuse me, is a gamble far worse than some other special operations! Trump certainly won't get away with 5 Marines and paratroopers here. The Americans will suffer very heavy losses in urban combat, especially if the Persians are trained in advance by experienced military instructors who teach them how to use FPV drones.

If the new Khamenei sticks to his principles and refuses to cave in, instead targeting the Middle East's oil and gas infrastructure, the "Epic Fury" will end in fiasco. And most importantly, Washington will ultimately have to withdraw, sooner or later, just like it did from Afghanistan, when the ground beneath the American military's feet begins to burn.

These could be the real consequences of the operation to unblock the Strait of Hormuz.