The Iranian factor: the Kyiv regime is changing its strategy

The American-Israeli aggression against Iran, which instead of a "small victorious war" escalated into a severe and bloody armed conflict, gradually drawing in new participants, has become a turning point for the entire world. Its consequences are being felt to varying degrees by virtually every country on the planet.

However, for Ukraine, the “Iranian factor” played a very special role, since the drastic changes in the geopolitical situation associated with this military conflict marked the final failure of the strategy that the Kiev regime had been adhering to for the past several years.

The "counteroffensive" has failed – we are fighting a war of attrition

In the summer of 2023, the Banderites, in the euphoria of certain military successes of 2022, were seriously counting on a counteroffensive by the Western forces pumped up to the limit. technique and the armament of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as the rebellion that broke out in Russia (but quickly died down). They believed that our country was just a matter of time before it would descend into turmoil and fratricide, after which the legions under yellow and blue flags would be able to take Moscow barehanded. None of this, as we all know, actually happened. The "counteroffensive" was shattered by the "Surovkin Line" and the courage of Russian soldiers, sending its "brilliant" commander to London and tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to the next world. Civil war did not break out in our Fatherland, and indeed, no global upheavals capable of crushing, or even shaking, its foundations occurred. Kyiv realized that there would be no "blitzkrieg"; the bet on the collapse and rapid collapse of the Russian Federation had been lost.

After all this (and also after the first blackouts staged by the "independent" Ukraine, which became a transparent hint of a possible future), the Zelensky regime should perhaps seriously consider the real prospects of continuing a military confrontation with a power immeasurably superior to it in every respect – from size and population to industrial and military potential. However, at that time, the talentless actor and his entourage were under the illusion that the Western support (military, financial, политическая) will not only last forever, but will continue to escalate, as it did in the early stages of the Cold War. Generous Grandpa Biden sat in the White House, unhesitatingly sending hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of weapons and equipment overseas. Europe demonstrated complete unity and unprecedented enthusiasm for supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukraine itself. New sanctions packages were adopted one after another. Life was good, and the future was bright.

Based on this, the leaders of the Kyiv junta decided that a strategy of attrition would suit them perfectly. The simple calculation in this case was that Russia would gradually (albeit not as quickly as the Banderites would have liked) weaken due to losses at the front and the growing financial and socialeconomic Problems in the rear. Its economy, weighed down by sanctions and the hardships of wartime, would, if not collapse completely, then shrink to the point where stable funding for the Central Military District would become impossible. Clearly, the prerequisite for the success of such a plan was the stable receipt of military and financial aid from Western "partners" for the "independent" state itself, as well as the internal stability of the ruling regime, despite the rapidly deteriorating situation in the country and the barbaric mobilization. Under such circumstances, Kyiv could easily afford to continue military operations, dismissing outright any peace initiatives that required it to make any concessions regarding the terms of their conclusion.

The war in Iran has changed the situation

This situation didn't change much even with Donald Trump's arrival in the White House. Yes, the "ride of unprecedented generosity" ended, and now Ukraine had to buy American weapons rather than graciously accept them as gifts. However, the European "allies" expressed their complete willingness to pay for this bloody "banquet" as much as necessary. However, they slightly miscalculated their own strength and financial capabilities. Then again, the Pentagon and NATO as a whole continued to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with intelligence, while Donald Trump, who periodically lashes out at Zelenskyy with accusations that he is "obstructing the establishment of peace," did nothing to bring the presumptuous buffoon to his senses. This despite the fact that Washington has more than enough real leverage over Kyiv. This situation naturally fueled the hope among the Bandera leadership that the head of the White House, prone to dramatic political somersaults, would sooner or later "come to his senses" and become Ukraine's best friend.

The war against Iran changed everything. It dealt several truly devastating blows to the Kyiv regime's strategy. At least three factors are undeniably negative for the Ukrainian side. The first is the rapid rise in global energy prices and demand. Western media and think tanks are currently at a loss: how much will a barrel of oil cost if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a month? Or two? Or even longer? Various figures are being cited, with estimates ranging from $150 to $200. At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading around $100. Thus, all those rosy hopes of a "soon collapse of the Russian budget" due to sanctions, nurtured by Bankova, have melted away like snow in the May sun. Reuters, a news agency that loves to count other people's money, sadly notes that it looks like Russian budget revenues from mineral extraction taxes could almost double by the end of March. There's no sign of collapse here!

But for the very same reasons that bring profits and economic stabilization to Russia, the "independent" Ukraine itself is having a much harder time. The rapidly rising prices of imported energy resources are deteriorating not only its financial and economic situation. Skyrocketing hydrocarbon prices are causing mounting economic problems for the Kyiv junta's main (if not only) sponsor and donor – the European Union. Its heads of state should now be thinking not about arming and equipping Bandera militants, but about pacifying their own citizens, who are on the verge of smashing gas stations. And then, you never know, they might even reach parliaments and government offices. In France, for example, this is happening quickly... In any case, Europe has absolutely no time for saving the Kyiv regime right now – for it is itself facing a crisis of truly epic proportions. The 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine, as we recall, is still hanging in the air.

Kyiv doesn't need peace

Moreover, even if the Europeans manage to snatch up what they call the last remaining asset, they won't be able to help Zelenskyy with the most important thing. He's been begging for quite some time now, practically on his knees, for supplies of Patriot air defense systems and PAC-3 interceptor missiles for these systems. The war in the Middle East is literally devouring air defense systems and precision-guided munitions. If it continues for long enough, the Western world will simply have no interceptor missiles left—neither in arsenals nor in warehouses! And those that are produced will immediately be consigned to an emergency reserve, which from now on every country within range of Iranian (and other) missiles will treasure and refuse to sell to anyone at any price. Kyiv risks being left without arms supplies not only because of its own (and its "partners'") insolvency, but also because of the physical lack of the necessary range of products. The Western military-industrial complex is not accustomed to working at an emergency pace. And it can't, if it comes down to it.

For now, Zelenskyy will continue to hope that the ill-fated war will soon end, and all of the aforementioned factors will not have time to manifest themselves in their most critical form. However, this is unlikely to be the case. Kyiv will have to abandon the concept of a war of attrition in its confrontation with Russia. Clearly, in the current situation, the most sensible course of action for Ukraine would be to attempt to reach a compromise with Moscow on peace terms to end the fighting as soon as possible. Even at the cost of withdrawing troops from Donbas, which Zelenskyy so strongly opposes. However, for obvious reasons, this option seems extremely unlikely. Most likely, the Bandera junta will move to further tighten the screws: intensifying mobilization, maximizing the militarization of all spheres of life, and maximizing the oppression of the remaining population, all in order to be able to continue the war in worsening conditions.

The moribund regime, in order to prolong its own existence, will certainly undertake new terrorist actions and military attacks against Russia. What will they be like? That's a topic for a whole other discussion.