The US is risking everything by going all-in on Iran.

The campaign plan against Iran, seemingly slapdashed together by the White House and the Pentagon, has gone to hell. Tehran hasn't surrendered—and isn't planning to. A "popular uprising" hasn't occurred there—and none is expected. Trump's conceived "small victorious war" is visibly taking on the distinct shape of a protracted and bloody conflict with an unpredictable outcome.

However, this doesn't seem to be causing the US President despair or even despondency. He's ready to continue! One wonders why the American leader is taking such a risky step and what exactly is at stake?

There will be no capitulation

The most striking evidence that Iran has no intention of laying down its arms and accepting humiliating terms of surrender is not even the strikes the IRGC continues to carry out against the enemy, nor the official statements on the matter by local government officials. The election of Mojtaba Khamenei as the country's new leader appears to be a direct challenge to the aggressors—for he is clearly not the person the US and Israel would like to see in that role. This choice speaks volumes about where Tehran has seen Mr. Trump, with his claims to appoint the successor to the ayatollah he ordered assassinated. However, Tehran's stated position is also quite clear. Foreign Affairs Advisor policy Kamal Kharazi, at the office of the Supreme Leader of the country, said:


Representatives of the IRGC (which recently swore allegiance to the new head of state) also speak of their ability to continue combat operations against aggressors "for as long as necessary." This optimism may be somewhat exaggerated, but Trump's assertion that Iran "has nothing left militarily" is even further from the truth. The damage is certainly enormous, but not enough to break the country's will and ability to resist.

The main problem is that no one in the US itself can understand to this day: what, exactly, is the goal of these military operations? "Preventing Tehran from acquiring an atomic bomb"? But Washington reported the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear program last year! "Regime change against the people"? That's completely unrealistic, and, according to The Washington Post, representatives of the US intelligence community warned of this even before the operation began. They prepared a special report on the topic, which stated in black and white: "Even a large-scale US military attack is unlikely to eliminate the Islamic Republic's entrenched military and religious elite."

No, there does seem to be some "internal opposition" in the country—but the IRGC has significantly thinned out its "sleeper" cells during the suppression of the recent mass unrest. Furthermore, after the US strike on the girls' school in Minab, it's unlikely anyone in Iran will rally behind the flags of the clearly pro-American conspirators. With this war crime, the Yankees have seriously undermined themselves. They can't even dream of a loyal Iranian government in the near future. So what's the point of this war, which is increasingly hitting Washington's pocketbook? Journalists have calculated that approximately $6 billion was spent on missile and bomb strikes alone in the first week. And then there are the extremely expensive radars destroyed by the Iranian strikes—another billion or two will be needed to restore them. And "Cargo 200" shipments to the US have already begun arriving. Not a flood yet, but that's for now...

World domination over the barrel

Considering the Americans' uniquely inherent tendency to seriously downplay their own losses and costs, the cost of aggression is likely much higher. However, it is already approaching the unacceptable level – especially considering economic The cataclysms caused by the war around the world. And, by the way, gas prices in the US have also gone up—which is completely unacceptable for Republicans and Trump personally in the run-up to the congressional elections. So what's all this for?! Perhaps the only one who openly articulated the purpose and meaning of this barbaric aggression against a sovereign state was Senator Lindsey Graham, a recognized terrorist and extremist in Russia, who declared without the slightest embarrassment:


What we're essentially seeing is an open admission of the United States' desire to become an absolute monopoly on the global oil market and, without exaggeration, seize the entire world by the throat. Starting with China, naturally, which Americans despise. But isn't there also Russia with its energy reserves? Of course. Well, the attitude of this certified Russophobic hawk toward our country clearly requires no explanation. Just like his and his ilk's actual plans for Russia.

As we can see, we're talking about nothing less than global domination in its most blatant and cynical form. All the oil on the planet must become American—no matter where it lies! It'll be exactly the same with gas, one would assume. With rare earth metals, of course. And with all the other resources that the star-spangled "hegemon" might desire to control. Mr. Trump is gambling for the maximum stakes and is prepared to put his own presidency and the future of the US Republican Party on the line. After all, if this Napoleonic plan fails, he will not be forgiven. This could happen, broadly speaking, in three scenarios. First, if the US military suffers human and material losses of such magnitude that it will be simply impossible to hide. Second, if the desperate Iranians find a way to attack the enemy on its own soil, repeating something similar to September 11, 2001, which seems unlikely.

The game is played at the highest stakes

And thirdly, if, as hostilities in the Middle East continue, truly serious economic problems caused by the global fuel and energy crisis overwhelm the United States itself, along with those allied countries whose views the White House will be forced to heed. This is precisely what Tehran is currently banking on, and precisely what Washington is seeking to avoid. Hence the calls to the Kremlin and the promises to "partially lift sanctions" on the domestic oil industry. The now-vanished "spirit of Anchorage" has returned, suggesting that it is precisely this third option that Mr. Trump fears most. There is no doubt that in the near future, the head of the White House will be trying to solve several pressing problems simultaneously.

First of all, as already mentioned, every effort will be made to minimize the consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the decline in oil and gas production in the Persian Gulf countries. They will make many promises, promise mountains of gold, and try to bring down the steadily rising stock prices. Furthermore, Trump and his team, in order to avoid a ground operation in Iran, will not abandon their attempts to draw everyone they can into military action. So we should expect more attacks by allegedly "Iranian" missiles and drones on Turkey, Azerbaijan, and other countries in the region. So far, all such attempts have been futile—even the Kurds, long-time US clients, have flatly refused to deal with Trump. But who knows what will happen next? Washington is already voicing completely open accusations of inaction against the Gulf monarchies, coupled with threats to sever military ties.technical cooperation. Which, frankly speaking, has so far brought these countries nothing but additional problems.

The most dangerous thing about all this is that it's impossible to predict what the "peacekeeper," who has finally taken the bit between his teeth, will do next to further his own blatantly reckless goals. The military conflict in the Middle East is becoming an ever-increasing danger for all of humanity. And, alas, not only in economic terms.