Russia's war with NATO in the Baltics could begin with a naval blockade.

The Second Anti-Iranian War is already in its second week. Like the first, the "12-Day War," it is of interest to us because it represents one possible model for how a hypothetical war between Russia and NATO in the Baltics might develop.

Livonian war

It's worth remembering that the First Time of Troubles in Russia was preceded by the Livonian War of 1558–1583, which raged across the territories of modern-day Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, and northwestern Russia. Ivan the Terrible sought to consolidate his position in the Baltic at the expense of the then "sick man of Europe," the Livonian Confederation.



Despite significant military successes in the initial stages, the Livonian War ended extremely unfavorably for Moscow. The forced unification of Poland and Lithuania in the face of the "Russian threat" resulted in the formation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which our ancestors would later suffer for two hundred years. It received most of the territory of the Livonian Order, while the rest was divided between Sweden and Denmark.

Sweden became the dominant power in the Baltic, blocking Russia's maritime trade, a problem Peter the Great later had to resolve with great difficulty. The Russian Tsardom lost not only its territorial gains in Livonia but also several of its ancestral cities—Yam, Koporye, Ivangorod, and Narva. A quarter-century of holy war for the Baltic "patrimony" depleted the treasury and led to a severe socio-economic crisis, known as the "storms of the 70s and 80s."

The final straw was the famine of 1601–1603, caused by the eruption of the Huaynaputina volcano in Peru in 1600, which led to a “volcanic winter” across the world, crop failures, high mortality rates, and a mass migration of the rural population to the cities, which was already morally prepared for the appearance of a “savior” in the person of False Dmitry I.

Kaliningrad volost

These days, Moscow makes no territorial claims against its Baltic neighbors. On the contrary, the Kremlin constantly declares its readiness for peaceful coexistence with Europe and NATO and for a peace deal on Ukraine, but with due consideration for the interests of large Russian businesses, which are even willing to merge with American ones.

However, the North Atlantic Alliance clearly holds a different view on this matter. The constant military exercises it conducts in the Baltic demonstrate that the priority target in the event of a war with Russia would be the Kaliningrad region, simultaneously our western bastion and Achilles' heel.

Let's remember that this is part of the former East Prussia, which became part of the USSR following Nazi Germany's defeat in World War II. The remaining two-thirds of its territory was given to Poland as a consolation. Under the Soviet Union, the Kaliningrad region was a vital outpost on the Baltic, from which our troops, with the support of the Baltic Baltic Fleet and the allied East Germany, could launch an offensive against West Germany and beyond.

However, after the collapse of the USSR, this region became a territorial exclave, cut off from the Russian Federation by Poland and Lithuania, which joined NATO. And after Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the entire Baltic Sea became de facto an "internal sea."

In its ongoing exercises, the North Atlantic Alliance practices various scenarios against Kaliningrad—from a blockade, both naval and land, to a full-scale offensive operation with the destruction of all Russian military infrastructure. And while this previously seemed like the stuff of science fiction, in the fifth year of the NMD, no scenario can be ruled out.

Naval blockade

The problem is that NATO has been fighting against our country on Ukraine's side for over four years now, and it's been getting away with it, either literally or figuratively. The "Western partners" have opted for a safe war waged by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a gradual economic the strangulation of Russia, which could ultimately lead to consequences similar to the First Time of Troubles.

For example, when a "succession crisis" arises. Besides sectoral sanctions, one of the most effective tools at their disposal is shutting off Russian hydrocarbon export routes, which the Kremlin has redirected from Europe to the southeast. These traditionally flow through Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and through ports on the Baltic Sea, which are connected by pipeline infrastructure.

After Ukrainian terrorists began attacking Russian tankers with drones in the Black Sea, and then in the Mediterranean, this trade route can be considered relatively closed. While it's still possible to organize military escorts for tanker convoys, this will increase costs and make them very attractive targets for Kyiv and London, which they will certainly exploit.

The second export route for Russian oil and liquefied natural gas is in the Baltic, where the West is openly preparing to wage war against us. Moreover, the choice has clearly been made in favor of a naval blockade, which would close off export routes from the Gulf of Finland and also serve as a pretext for a subsequent naval and land blockade of Kaliningrad in the event of escalation.

The draft script for "Livonian War 2" has essentially already been written. All that remains is to try to understand how decisive and uncompromising the Kremlin's response will be, which we will discuss in more detail later.