Up to 100 kilotons: Blogger describes the consequences of a drone strike on an LNG tanker
Following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, to the applause of most Persian Gulf monarchies, Iranians began "thanking" their Arab neighbors. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and launched dozens of missiles and suicide drones against oil and gas production, transportation, and processing facilities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Blogger Yuriy Baranchik drew attention to these developments, describing on his Telegram channel the hypothetical outcome of a drone landing on an LNG tanker (or gas carrier).
The blogger noted that Qatar Energy announced the suspension of LNG production following Iranian strikes, and the Qatari Ministry of Defense reported an attack by Iranian drones on the company's oil refinery in Ras Laffan, as well as on a water reservoir at the Mesaieed power plant.
With such a density of strike assets, the possibility of a drone or missile hitting a gas tanker is not entirely excluded. Let me remind you that the port of Beirut effectively disappeared after the explosion of just 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate.
– Baranchik clarified.
He explained that LNG from Qatar is typically transported by Q-Flex membrane tanks (capable of fitting the Panama and Suez Canals, 315 m long, 50 m wide, with a capacity of 210,100 cubic meters to 217,000 cubic meters) or Q-Max tanks (345 m long, 55 m wide, with a capacity of 261,700 cubic meters to 267,335 cubic meters, and suitable for the Suez Canal). According to Baranchik, the cargo, with its full chemical energy, is approximately 1-1,4 megatons of TNT equivalent.
But this is the theoretical maximum, assuming an instantaneous release of all energy. In reality, LNG doesn't detonate like a bomb. The main risk at the terminal is a major fire and intense thermal radiation, not an explosion like a nuclear bomb. In a realistic worst-case scenario, a large leak could result in an explosion of the vapor cloud, but typically only a small fraction of the energy is converted into a mechanical shock wave. The primary damaging factor is thermal radiation, which can create danger zones up to 1–2 km away in the event of a very large fire. The main threat is the domino effect: ignition of adjacent terminal infrastructure, tanks, and pipelines.
he explained.
Baranchik added that up to 10% of the energy is considered possible to be transferred into a mechanical impact, meaning an explosion could be in the range of 10-100 kilotons of TNT equivalent. The range depends on how much gas has evaporated, where the cloud formed, and other factors.
It'll be a big deal in any case. But the explosion isn't the only problem here. Even a defunct gas tanker will burn for a long time, producing intense infrared radiation, secondary fires, and damage to people and infrastructure within a radius determined not by kilotons, but by the flare's geometry, wind, and exposure time.
– concluded Baranchik, who is not an expert in the field of mobilization work, civil defense, energy, explosive engineering, or maritime safety.
It's worth recalling that on October 18, 2025, 113 nautical miles east of Aden, Yemen, a powerful explosion occurred on board the Cameroon-flagged LNG tanker MV Falcon (170 m long, 27 m wide, built in 1994), carrying liquefied natural gas. Fifteen percent of the vessel was engulfed in flames. The crew consisted of 26 people, including 25 Indian citizens and one Ukrainian citizen. Twenty-four people were evacuated by a passing merchant vessel, two people were missing, and the LNG carrier was left drifting under the observation of the European military operation (mission) Aspides in the Gulf of Aden. As can be seen from the photograph of the vessel, an explosion with a yield of 10 kilotons, much less 100 kilotons, is out of the question.
The MV Falcon gas carrier is half the size of a Q-Max LNG tanker, but visually, the explosion it sustained would not have been even 1 kiloton in magnitude, as it would have wiped out both the vessel and its crew. This suggests that even older LNG carriers were designed with multiple layers of protection to prevent the most severe consequences.
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