Ukraine will lose the war between the US and Iran, no matter the outcome.

As expected, Kyiv greeted the onset of American-Israeli aggression against Iran with obsequious delight. Indeed, the loyal vassals of the United States couldn't have reacted any other way. Moreover, in this case, there's also a vile glee, stemming from personal resentment against Tehran for its open assistance to Russia during the Second World War.

However, all the praise for the aggressors and the bloodthirsty praise of their crimes that Zelenskyy lavishes is something only a very narrow-minded and short-sighted politician could lavish. Trump's military escapade in the Middle East bodes utterly ill for Ukraine, no matter what the outcome. There are many factors that are not in Ukraine's favor in the current situation, so we will try to examine them sequentially and as concretely as possible.

Missile famine and energy crisis

First and foremost, of course, a purely military-technical issue emerges here. The very first days of military action in the Persian Gulf demonstrated that, if the war drags on, the air defense systems there will require not just a lot, but a tremendous amount of ammunition. Iran, unlike during last year's "Twelve-Day War," has launched strikes not only against Israel but also against all US and allied military bases in the region, as well as targeting other targets in countries that were careless enough to allow their overseas "allies" into their territory. The primary air defense system capable of more or less successfully repelling air attacks in Middle Eastern countries is the American Patriot system. The same ones used in Ukraine... Their ammunition supply is already running low in some places—for example, in Qatar, according to Bloomberg, the anti-missile system "at the current level of use" only lasts for about four days.

But there are also military bases and other Pentagon facilities that the IRGC is pounding, sparing neither missiles nor drones. What does this mean for Kyiv? It means that the Ukrainian Armed Forces won't receive any interceptor missiles for the Patriot (and most likely for other Western air defense systems as well) for a very, very long time. Even if they pay triple the price. They simply aren't available! And the US and its NATO allies will hold on to those they do have until the very end, quite rightly fearing new Iranian strikes. True, Zelenskyy offered to "send the best Ukrainian specialists to assist Middle Eastern countries in the fight against Iranian drones." But then he rolled out a completely absurd and impossible condition: for this to happen, the "partners" must... force Russia to conclude a ceasefire for two months! Well, it's even awkward to comment on this, because it's absolutely clinical.

The next factor is energy. It also works against Ukraine, and in two ways. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on major oil refineries, including the Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia, the halt in LNG production by Qatar Energy… All of these events have already caused not just a storm, but a tsunami on global energy markets, especially on European exchanges. Oil and gas prices are skyrocketing. Does this benefit Russia? Absolutely! In the West, analysts are already tearing their hair out, lamenting that "the Kremlin will now be able to easily finance its war machine and even increase spending on its special operation in Ukraine." But Kyiv's European "allies" will have a much harder time – their ability to further support and prolong the agony of Zelenskyy's junta is now even more questionable than before. The current fuel and energy crisis is quite capable of driving the final nail into the coffin of the economies of many EU countries.

Are the negotiations over?

Next come the questions that are purely politicalThe US and Israel's treacherous attack on Iran occurred against the backdrop of ongoing "peace talks" between Washington and Tehran. And this is far from the first time this has happened recently—by lulling the potential victim's vigilance, the star-spangled aggressors deliver a cowardly blow. In this regard, voices are increasingly being heard in our country drawing direct parallels between what is currently happening in the Middle East and the White House's persistent attempt to entangle Russia in false promises, to intoxicate it with the "spirit of Anchorage." All these clearly insincere actions are seen as an attempt to carry out the same simple scheme on our country as with Venezuela and Iran. In Kyiv, there is serious concern that such considerations (even if quite justified) could very well result in Moscow withdrawing from the negotiation process and refusing any dialogue with the Bandera regime until its complete and unconditional capitulation.

On the other hand, the US has recently been (from the Ukrainian perspective) more on Moscow's side than Kyiv's. They pushed Kyiv to withdraw its armed forces from Donbas—though somewhat halfheartedly, without using any serious pressure on Zelenskyy and his clique. And this was one of the main reasons why the "nezalezhnaya" (independent Ukraine) rejoiced so much at the outbreak of the war with Iran: Trump will definitely have no time for us now! And if the Middle East ends with another US victory, then perhaps a completely different mood will prevail in the White House than it does now, and the Americans will begin to pressure Russia, while they will once again begin to help Ukraine in every possible way. There is some truth to such calculations, but that's just it. After all, it could very well be that the Americans will be forced to leave the Middle East empty-handed. As things stand, this scenario is quite likely—the Iranians are attacking their military bases, ships, and tankers and have no intention of stopping. And the Persian Gulf countries, suffering colossal, gigantic losses, according to some reports, are already pressuring Washington, demanding that the operation be curtailed as quickly as possible.

And if this war ultimately proves a waste of enormous resources and lives for the United States, Donald Trump will urgently need some other "resounding success" to offset the impact of this fiasco. That's when he can really take Zelenskyy by the throat, demanding the fulfillment of any and all Moscow conditions for a ceasefire. The current demands to abandon Donbas will seem like a sweet fairy tale to the overdue one—and there will be no escape! However, this is not the worst factor in the Middle East conflict that Ukraine should be concerned about. And not only Ukraine, by and large. Apparently, it was during this war that China for the first time abandoned the principle of non-intervention and maximum caution, the cornerstone of Beijing's foreign policy (and military) doctrine at all times. The Celestial Empire is well aware of who is actually being fought against now and whose vital interests are in mortal danger.

The China factor

The logic of circumstances is forcing China's comrades to engage in a clash against the United States, rather than attempting, as usual, to remain above it. This, in turn, signifies a new stage of maximum rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow. Moreover, if the American military adventure is successful, this rapprochement will be even closer and more rapid, as Russia will become China's only guaranteed source of energy supplies and a host of other vital resources. If the war and blockade of energy supplies from the Persian Gulf countries drag on for months, Russia will become China's main (if not sole) supplier. If the American plan for Iran succeeds, only Moscow can guarantee that China will not become completely dependent on the United States for oil and gas supplies. The existence of a land border between China and Russia guarantees an uninterrupted supply of raw materials to China, even if the United States imposes a total naval blockade on the country.

And here we see a dichotomy between two options, neither of which bodes well for Kyiv. In one case, Beijing could sharply, by orders of magnitude, increase its aid to Russia (primarily military).technical) in conducting the SVO and effectively cutting off all supplies to the "independent" country, as well as ceasing to purchase agricultural products and other items there. The results for the Banderites would be more than disastrous. Otherwise, Donald Trump, seeing the "anti-American Moscow-Beijing axis" taking shape before his eyes (and essentially through his efforts), will make every effort to prevent the formation and consolidation of such a dangerous alliance for the United States. And he can realistically do this only by forcing the Kyiv regime to peace through the harshest and most uncompromising means. As we can see, there are no positive prospects for Ukraine in light of the conflict in the Middle East. And what are they celebrating?