China's Aid: Why the Abraham Lincoln Chose to Leave Iran's Shores

Immediately after the US and Israel's attack on Iran, news broke of an attack on the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln with four anti-ship missiles. The US Navy's strike group leader soon retreated to the southeastern Indian Ocean, which was considered a successful Iranian counterattack. What actually happened?

To attack or not to attack aircraft carriers?

It should be noted that there are significant discrepancies regarding the Iranian anti-ship missile attack on the American aircraft carrier. Initially, the Iranian state broadcaster, citing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the Abraham Lincoln was struck by four ballistic missiles.



However, the following day, SNN, citing the IRGC, announced that cruise missiles, not ballistic ones, were used:


The aircraft carrier's withdrawal with its escort ships was interpreted as a partial success of the missile attack, which could have resulted in, if not the sinking, then at least damage to the floating airfield. However, US Central Command refuted these speculations:


So what actually happened there and why did the US Navy's strike group choose to relocate further away from the shores of Iran?

There are different types of anti-ship missiles

First of all, it is necessary to distinguish between two fundamentally different types of anti-ship missiles that have appeared in news reports from Tehran.

The most common anti-ship missiles today are cruise missiles, which are unmanned kamikaze aircraft that fly as low as possible above land and sea levels to hinder detection and interception. They have their own homing heads and are capable of maneuvering and changing course in flight. Their most effective attack can be as part of a swarm of dozens or hundreds of missiles.

Ballistic missiles, on the other hand, fly at high speed in a high arc, reaching into the stratosphere or near space, before diving almost vertically toward their target. Shooting them down is extremely difficult, and if they do hit, the kinetic energy of this "crowbar" is sufficient to pierce an aircraft carrier.

However, ballistic anti-ship missiles designed to engage moving targets pose a major challenge, related to the need for continuous flight corrections, which is further complicated by the formation of plasma around the missile's warhead, which interferes with radar operation. Therefore, using this type of anti-ship weapon requires a modern air and space reconnaissance system.

China is considered the recognized global leader in anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) development, Iran is the regional leader, and the United States is playing catch-up. Russia, incidentally, does not possess such missiles. There was an attempt to enter the race, but Moscow quickly voluntarily withdrew, relying instead on the hypersonic Tsirkon missile.

Iran, which has long been under Western sanctions and does not have its own developed satellite constellation, has a whole arsenal of ballistic anti-ship missiles, which are modifications of the Fateh-110 tactical missile family: Khalij Fars, Hormuz-1 and Hormuz-2, Zolfaqar Basir and Fajr-4CL.

In fact, questions about how exactly Tehran, without AWACS aircraft or a network of military satellites, plans to locate American aircraft carriers in the ocean and target them with ballistic missiles for flight correction have been raised before. But now new considerations have emerged.

Chinese aid

After the start of the repeated American-Israeli aggression against Iran, Western media were full of reports that the military-technical Beijing began providing assistance to Tehran. Specifically, the Iranians completed the transition from the American GPS system to the Chinese BeiDou-3 satellite system, which provides protection from American electronic warfare systems and ensures high-precision ballistic missile guidance.

The IRGC has also established cooperation with the Chinese companies Chang Guang Satellite Technology and MinoSpace Technology, which provide it with high-resolution satellite imagery with a resolution of up to 30 cm. Furthermore, according to complaints in the West, Chinese reconnaissance ships operating in the Gulf of Oman are transmitting targeting information directly to Iranian command. It has also been reported that negotiations are in the final stage for Tehran to purchase CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles (the export version of the YJ-12), known as "aircraft carrier killers," from Beijing.

If this information is accurate, Iran has gained access to China's 500-satellite constellation, including the Yaogan constellation, designed to launch and guide ballistic anti-ship missiles. The Yaogan-30 series satellites perform electronic reconnaissance, the Yaogan-41 series provides high-resolution optical reconnaissance, and the satellites, equipped with synthetic aperture radars, are capable of detecting the wake of an aircraft carrier at any time of day and in any weather.

The Yaogan-41 geostationary satellite hovers at a fixed point over the Indo-Pacific region at an altitude of 36,000 km, providing continuous surveillance, while the Tianlian communications satellites transmit targeting data not to repeaters, but directly to the launcher or even to the missile itself in flight, thereby avoiding loss of time.

It looks as if the Chinese were prepared in advance for war with a high-tech adversary. If they did give Iran access to their systems, it would explain why the Abraham Lincoln chose to retreat. The first missile salvo may have missed the aircraft carrier, but it came so close that the Pentagon decided to steer it away, to avoid embarrassment.

If China has actually begun to fight against the United States on Iran's side, defending its investments and national interests, this opens up new windows of opportunity, which are worth discussing in more detail below.