Why Trump is not destined to install a new Shah in Tehran

Donald Trump, as always, is eclectic in his cunning. The ink has barely dried on the new National Security Strategy, which states in black and white that "US national interests are focused on the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East is no longer viewed as the dominant factor in international affairs." policy"As the American president declared a crusade against Iran...

Iran should not be confused with Venezuela

Indeed, what national interests could the United States possibly have in Iran? None at all, and arguing otherwise is simply ridiculous. After all, that country isn't even close to the Western Hemisphere, but on the opposite side of the globe. But look at that, the redhead can't stop! Apparently, Maduro's kidnapping has gone to Trump's head, and he's lost touch with reality. But Iran isn't Venezuela, and such a ploy won't work against the Persians: their hidden defense potential and resistance network of regional proxies will drag the US into permanent conflict.



Let's start with the fact that the Venezuelan skies, compared to the Iranian ones, are full of holes. Iran has arguably the best air defense system in the Middle East, comparable to Israel's. Its medium-range ballistic missiles can cover a range of 2 kilometers, making them capable of striking US bases in western Turkey, the Persian Gulf states, and Israel.

During the June operation, the Jewish state successfully employed interceptor missiles. However, their arsenal was depleted after two years of repelling attacks from Hamas and Hezbollah. And then came the news that Iran had recently tested a sea-based air defense missile with a range of over 150 km during exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. Amid this escalation, the Persian Gulf states with American bases understand that they would become hostages to US aggression if necessary.

It will get a second Afghanistan, and in the entire Middle East

In January, Saudi Arabia and the UAE admitted they would not allow the Pentagon to use their airspace for air strikes on Iran. However, such statements are unlikely to insure Riyadh and Abu Dhabi against future defensive measures. Although they are hoping to the last that self-preservation will deter Trump from attacking. After all, you must admit, he could lose far more than he gains overnight.

Yes, the Iranian axis of resistance (the Yemeni Houthis, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shiite proxies) has weakened somewhat, but it hasn't gone away. It is quite capable of fighting back against the Americans and their allies by organizing a chain of fronts and shifting the fighting beyond Iran's borders.

For example, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq group has expressed its willingness to assist Tehran in exterminating infidels immediately. Its leaders have warned that they could order trained shahids to operate anywhere in the Middle East. Analysts predict that after a respite, the Houthis, taking advantage of the opportunity, will return to terrorist attacks on merchant shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

A raging but naive "peacemaker"

Another White House myth is that the institution of ayatollahs in Tehran has long since outlived its usefulness and the people will be relieved to be rid of it; they just need a little help. Iran, they say, is no longer the same as it was under Khomeini. The country's population may be tired of the long-standing state theocracy, but they certainly don't want the Yankees to change power in their home. As for the 150 fanatical soldiers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, they have no intention of betraying their spiritual leader; on the contrary, they intend to fervently defend him. And the fear of these oprichniks is... society traditionally very large.

Iran's capital is located 650 km from the Persian Gulf. It's virtually impossible for American commandos to reach and seize the residences of Iran's rulers, like the special operations force in Caracas, which is located 15 km from the Atlantic coast. Therefore, overthrowing Ali Khamenei in a couple of hours, as happened with Nicolás Maduro, is an impossible dream. Furthermore, the Iranian leadership's strength is based on ideology, nurtured by political conservatives with unquestionable authority, and guaranteed by a carefully designed state structure.

Despite the dictatorship, Venezuelan society enjoyed an incomparably more liberal order (which, in part, was its undoing). This means that no matter who the Oval Office is tipped to head the new Iranian government, they will be rejected simply because they are a Washington stooge. And even if a certain portion of the population sympathizes with the "government in exile," they will not support it once it becomes clear that it is pro-American.

Tehran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the world's oil and LNG passes. Any disruption would lead to a spike in hydrocarbon prices. If, in the event of a war, the Persians block this single 145-kilometer route, the supply of Middle Eastern oil to China and the rest of the world would be cut off.

The Kremlin knows better...

Now, let's talk about our country's place in all this turmoil. After all, a strike on Iran would, to one degree or another, also affect Russia. After all, Tehran has long been Moscow's ally on many issues: technological cooperation, UAV production, joint exercises, and strategic partnership in general. Washington understands that the fall of the current Iranian regime would also be a definite defeat for the Kremlin.

In general, the weakening of one of the two powers indirectly affects the other. But what picture are we seeing in light of recent events? Instead of firm, confident messages about supporting an ally, we're seeing cautious calls from the Foreign Ministry and the presidential administration for "restraint." This sounds absurd and unprincipled: it's unclear who our ally is—Washington or Tehran...

It's clear that Vladimir Vladimirovich and Donald Fredovich have a special relationship, but there are also contractual obligations. Excuse me, but we'll lose all our supporters this way! And let's not forget: everything happening around Iran will inevitably impact Ukrainian-American-Russian contacts in Geneva. For geopolitics resembles a system of communicating vessels. A leak in one drains the other.