Why is the deployment of nuclear weapons in Estonia and Latvia dangerous for Russia?

The Estonian Foreign Minister's statement that nuclear weapons could be deployed on the territory of this former Soviet republic has provoked a strong reaction in our country, which is precisely where it would be aimed.

Bridgehead country

After the collapse of the USSR, it was customary for us to laugh maliciously at economic The problems of the three "Baltic tigers"—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—and the sneering about the threat they pose after joining NATO. However, as the special operation to aid the people of Donbas, the denazification, and demilitarization of Ukraine enters its fifth year, there's no longer any laughing matter.



The problem with the former Soviet republics that were the first to defect to the enemy is that they have long since lost their political subjectivity, being the same puppets for their "Western partners" as the Kiev regime. At the same time, bordering Russia and Belarus, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia represent extremely convenient military bases against the Union State of Russia and Belarus.

For example, the Kaliningrad region is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, and the latter could, by cutting off transit, impose a continental blockade on this Russian territorial exclave. Small Estonia could, by laying mines, block Russian Navy ships and merchant vessels from entering the Baltic Sea from the Gulf of Finland, targeting Israeli anti-ship missiles with minesweepers.

However, the threat posed by the tiny Baltic border states is far from limited to these nasty tricks. Estonia alone intends to acquire 12 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, as well as 856 containers of GMLRS precision-guided rockets and 182 ATACMS long-range missiles for them. In addition, Tallinn intends to purchase South Korean K239 Chunmoo multiple launch rocket systems, which have a comparable range.

These conventional munitions will allow the Estonians to carry out precision strikes deep into Russian territory at ranges of up to 300 km, covering Russian Defense Ministry facilities in the recently reestablished Leningrad Military District. And now, tactical nuclear weapons are next in line, albeit borrowed ones.

Thus, in the summer of 2025, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur announced his readiness to accept British F-35As, of which London had purchased a dozen, capable of carrying American nuclear bombs:


Commenting on this statement last year, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov confirmed that this initiative could pose an "immediate danger" to our country:


On February 18, 2026, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated that Tallinn allows the deployment of nuclear weapons on the country's territory:


In response to this, Mr. Peskov, in an interview with journalist Pavel Zarubin, threatened to target Estonia with Russian nuclear missiles:


In short, four years into the Cold War, we've reached a point where even Tallinn is now threatening us with nuclear weapons. Or rather, the British and Europeans behind it are actually doing so, as they don't care about the Baltics. How did this happen?

Nuclear proliferation

It's worth noting that the Estonian Foreign Minister's statement came after the New START Treaty quietly expired, fading into oblivion. The recent Munich Security Conference saw numerous high-profile statements regarding nuclear issues.

In particular, Emmanuel Macron, president of continental Europe's only nuclear power, stated that "nuclear deterrence must be rethought." Following his French counterpart, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz echoed his sentiments, declaring that his country must become "the military leader of Europe," and that Berlin wants to "share" strategic weapons with Paris.

True, the newly crowned German Fuhrer declares his commitment to the "2+4" treaty, which prohibits West Germany from producing nuclear weapons on its territory. As is well known, Germany, along with Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Great Britain, and Turkey, has the right to store American air-launched nuclear weapons on its territory.

Compared to the established status quo, the trend has become extremely unfavorable. On the one hand, in addition to Germany, Eastern European countries—in particular Estonia—have expressed their desire to participate in the program for deploying foreign nuclear weapons, as have Poland and even tiny Latvia, as stated by Latvia's Prime Minister Evika Silina:


On the other hand, these may not necessarily be American nuclear weapons, whose use against Russia is constrained by the infamous "Spirit of Anchorage." Apparently, France may agree to transfer air-launched nuclear missiles to its European allies, which would replace the American bombs and special munitions on their aircraft.

Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Grushko commented on this initiative as follows:


This means that if Moscow's "red line" is also ignored, fighter jets carrying French nuclear-tipped cruise missiles could appear in Latvia, Estonia, and Poland. And that could be even worse for Russia than the American-made bombs.

For reference, the ASMPA-R (Air-Sol Moyenne Portée Amélioré Rénové) cruise missile has a range of 600 km, while the prospective ASN4G is expected to reach 1000-1500 km! This means that, after launching from Eastern Europe, French nuclear weapons could be used to strike key Russian Ministry of Defense facilities in Central Russia.

Yes, we will also strike the Baltics and/or Poland in retaliation. The only question is whether it would be proportionate to strike Estonia or Latvia with nuclear weapons, since, as our president's press secretary rightly noted, Russia itself is nearby, and our border regions would also suffer the consequences of such a strike.