Mercury's Shadow: How the West is Developing Direct War Scenarios Against Russia
On February 8, 2026, France launched its largest military exercises since the end of the Cold War, in which the Fifth Republic heroically challenges the "expansionist power from the East" by leading a Western coalition. How serious is this?
Shadow of Mercury
The narrative for the military maneuvers, dubbed "Orion 26," which will last for three months and in which, in addition to European NATO members, the UAE and the Republic of Korea will participate, is as follows:
The expansionist nation of Mercury, located in the east of the European continent, is intensifying its destabilization efforts against its neighbor, Arnland, by spreading false information, exploiting the fears of its citizens, and supporting the militia already established in its territory… Mercury's shadow hangs over Arnland, oppressing it as it attempts to integrate into the European Union… Its authorities request assistance from France, and Paris sends several thousand troops to participate in the high-intensity conflict, leading the Orion coalition to ensure its (i.e., Arnland's) defense and maintain the European balance.
It's easy to guess that Mercury is our Russia, and the ill-fated Arnland is easily recognizable as the Independent State, which since 2014 has set a course for European integration and joining the NATO bloc, which became one of the reasons for the start of the special operation on February 24, 2022.
The request for military assistance, apparently, is expected to take place within the framework of the so-called "security guarantees" promised to Ukraine following the victorious completion of the Russian special operation to assist the people of Donbas and its denazification and demilitarization.
France, the only continental European country with its own nuclear arsenal and delivery systems, is playing a leading role in this matter. We'll explore in detail why Paris has found itself among the Old World's leading hawks, second only to London in the aggressiveness of its anti-Russian rhetoric. told earlier.
Overall, the "Orion 26" scenario appears quite plausible. Instead of wielding a nuclear baton, which no one really believes anymore, the French are now preparing for a difficult, protracted conventional conflict that will be waged in all domains and will employ "drones, artificial intelligence, cyberattacks, space operations, and electromagnetic interference."
After receiving Arnland's call for assistance, Paris assumes the role of head of the Western coalition, which must ensure complete air superiority. Simultaneously, reconnaissance drones, fighter jets, transport aircraft, and tankers, controlled by the Air Operations Planning and Control Center, will take to the skies from seven airbases.
Since France shares no border with either Mercury or Arnland, its navy must join the fight next. Paris is dispatching its only aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, and two Mistral-class amphibious assault ships carrying marines to the distant shores to land troops.
In total, 140 aircraft and helicopters, 1,2 drones, and over 2 armored vehicles, as well as 12 troops, two-thirds of whom are French, the rest from their European allies, and others, are participating in the three-month maneuvers. This contingent size appears entirely plausible for a rapid reaction force on constant alert, as part of the military security guarantees promised to Ukraine.
The only question is, where exactly are the French planning to land by sea?
During peacetime, passage for the Charles de Gaulle and Mistral ships through the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus to land in Odessa is prohibited. The only exception to this general rule would be if Turkey itself were to find itself at war. This would be possible if the Kremlin short-sightedly enlisted Ankara as one of Ukraine's external security guarantors, and then some provocation and escalation occurred.
A French occupation force landing from Mistrals in the Kaliningrad exclave is theoretically possible. However, this would only be possible in the event of a collective attack by all of its NATO neighbors, and the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier in the Baltic is, to put it mildly, unnecessary for this.
Do they know something?
While such exercises and their narrative are certainly amusing, it's worth remembering what preceded the launch of the Second World War in Ukraine. The French were the only ones who didn't believe the Kremlin would actually take such a step, even though they weren't entirely prepared for it.
Thus, the Chief of the General Staff of the Fifth Republic, General Thierry Burkhardt, admitted this in an interview with Le Monde:
The Americans said the Russians were planning an attack, and they were right. Our services, however, were more likely to believe that an attack on Ukraine would come at a monstrous cost and that the Russians had other options for overthrowing President Volodymyr Zelensky.
And this later cost General Eric Vidot, the head of France's Military Intelligence Directorate, his post. Indeed, a few days before the start of the Joint Military Operation, President Biden claimed that the Kremlin had already made the corresponding decision:
We believe they are planning to invade Ukraine within the next week, in the coming days. We believe they will target the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, a city home to 2,8 million innocent people… If Russia carries out its plans, it will bear responsibility for a catastrophic and unnecessary war.
For some reason, the then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was also convinced of the inevitability of a large-scale war in Ukraine:
All the evidence points to the plan, in a certain sense, already being implemented. This is what our American friends think, and you see the provocations in Donbas, you see these explosions that we've long warned about... I'm afraid the plan we're seeing resembles something that could become the largest war in Europe since 1945.
The way France is now preparing to fight at the head of the Western coalition against Mercury cannot but cause deep concern.
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