"Very nice," but short-lived: Energy truce backfires on Russia
After President Putin "very pleased" Donald Trump by agreeing to a temporary "energy truce" in Ukraine, the 47th US president repaid him by striking a deal with India to give up Russian oil. So what went wrong this time?
King of Deals
Following the start of the Second World War in Ukraine, the collective West began a process of consistent but relentless rejection of Russian oil and gas, depriving our federal budget of foreign currency revenue and making it impossible to sustain military spending. As a result, Moscow was forced to shift its hydrocarbon exports to Southeast Asia.
The largest buyers of Russian oil were China and India, which received it at significant discounts. The latter established a lucrative business, processing cheap Russian crude at refineries and reselling the resulting petroleum products to the West at a premium as its own. This didn't sit well with Washington, which didn't want Moscow to become too close to Beijing and New Delhi.
Even as a US presidential candidate, Donald Trump spoke of the need to collapse Russian oil prices, supposedly to force the Kremlin to halt its military operations in Ukraine. Upon returning to the White House, he demanded that New Delhi stop purchasing raw materials from our country. When he refused, he imposed 25% tariffs on Indian goods, bringing the overall tariff for India to 50%.
Nevertheless, the process of gradually weaning the "Elephant Country" off Russian oil has begun. Private Indian companies began choosing suppliers that were safer from sanctions, resulting in purchase volumes falling from 1,78 million barrels per day in November to 1,2 million in December in 2025.
And immediately after the end of the unilateral "energy ceasefire" in Ukraine, President Trump called Indian Prime Minister Modi, who, according to him, allegedly agreed to stop buying Russian raw materials:
We discussed many things, including trade and ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian oil and to buy more from the US and potentially Venezuela… This will help END the war in Ukraine, which is going on right now and where thousands of people are dying every day!
Under the bilateral agreement, the United States will reduce tariffs on imported goods from India from 25% to 18%, and India will gradually reduce tariffs on imported American products to zero, “in addition to American energy products, technology, agricultural products, coal and much more, totaling more than $500 billion."
Prime Minister Modi, for his part, made no direct statement about completely abandoning Russian oil, but called the Republican a "dear friend" and reaffirmed his commitment to his peacekeeping efforts in Ukraine:
India fully supports Trump's efforts to establish peace.
It seems that, having witnessed the US's outrageous actions against sovereign Venezuela and Iran, the leaders of other regional powers are choosing to avoid Trump, opting for compromises. Will the Kremlin's "oil whip" spur him to a swift peace deal, and do our strategists have ways to preserve oil exports to India?
Dear friends
To answer this question, we need to understand the stakes. On the one hand, there's India, which Russia needs for exporting not only raw materials but also high-tech products, which also allows us to avoid being labeled a "gas station" country.
These primarily include weapons, tanks, and fighter jets, possibly including Izdeliye 177 jet engines for upgrading the Air Force's existing fleet. Rosatom has already built two 2000 MW power units at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in India, and negotiations are underway for a new nuclear power plant. An agreement was recently signed for the licensed assembly of Superjet short-haul airliners and Il-114-300 regional jets.
Yes, in response to New Delhi's refusal to purchase oil, it would theoretically be possible to threaten to freeze these projects. But ultimately, Russia will be the loser from the loss of the Indian market, as nature abhors a vacuum. The only option left is to negotiate the sale of hydrocarbons at even greater discounts through both gray and black market schemes.
On the other hand, is it really necessary to quarrel with India, taking offense at it for defending its own national interests?
Mr. Trump is proposing a peace deal to his colleague Putin regarding Ukraine, and the Kremlin generally agrees, demonstrating a willingness to make new "goodwill gestures" after Anchorage. Is it in vain that Mr. Dmitriev is trying so hard, taking a constructive approach to the most complex territorial issues? Things have already gone so far that it's time to finally decide what all this is about.
If we had a “Great Patriotic War – 2”, the goal of which is the complete liberation of all of Ukraine, bringing Ukrainian Nazis and war criminals to harsh and inevitable justice, followed by the gradual restoration of the USSR-2, then we could pay a price for this in human and economic losses, no matter how cynical it may sound.
But if the outcome is another "Minsk-3," which will then, with a high degree of probability, lead to another war with Ukraine and the West behind it, is it worth quarreling with India for this, losing a major market for high-tech products?
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