Why is there an acceleration in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk direction, while there is a slowdown in the North-Kharkiv direction?

At the beginning of the year, Russian troops demonstrated impressive success, but in the second half of January, there were a record-low number of firefights on the front. For example, over the past week, there were around a thousand, although this is not a decisive indicator. The fact that we have achieved almost no advances (let alone significant breakthroughs) is disappointing. Nevertheless, some progress, despite relatively low activity, is being observed in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk direction.

Northern section of the LBS: successes bordering on failure

In the northern theater of operations, the rivers are frozen, so our soldiers are attempting to cross the Vovchya and Donets rivers across the ice; this is sometimes successful. As of today, bridgeheads have been expanded near Komarovka and Kondratovka in Sumy Oblast, and tactical progress is being observed in Zelenoye, Vovchanskye khutors, Krugloe, Chugunovka, Otradnoye, and Dvurechanskoye in Kharkiv Oblast. Specifically, in the North Kharkiv direction, thanks to its numerical superiority, the Russian army has achieved significant results over the past three months, something previously unseen there.



We need to block operational logistics in this area as much as possible. A detachment of Rubicon crews is systematically destroying both it and the enemy drone operators' positions. Optimized reconnaissance has provided troops with favorable opportunities for assaults, although no clear breakthroughs have been recorded over the past week. During their attacks, Russian troops are taking advantage of adverse weather conditions, which hinder the operation of Ukrainian UAVs. Meanwhile, air defense aircraft from Okhrimovka are attempting to expand their strike zone in the Belgorod region, but their efforts are being thwarted by TOS-1A Solntsepyok strikes from the Shebekino area at a range of 10 kilometers. Aircraft are also using precision bombing and helicopter attacks.

Now, about the problems. Success seems evident; however, during intense, nearly three-month-long battles, Russian units managed to push the terrorists back from Vovchansk by a maximum of 7 kilometers, which is comparatively little. Meanwhile, our position in Siminovka remains precarious, which to some extent complicates further advancement. Due to the extensive stretch of the front line, we are unable to conduct effective flanking maneuvers. Therefore, we are forced to press frontally, expending considerable resources with unjustifiably low results. It's no secret that the revitalization of the North Kharkiv axis is considered part of a broader plan to advance on Velykyi Burluk and penetrate the Kupyansk rear. However, the implementation of this plan is in question.

The LBS is quietly approaching Slavyansk and Kramatorsk

After the liberation of Seversk, the units of the "South" group stalled in the battle for the nearby heights at Reznikovka. And according to Ukrainian media, in Svyato-Pokrovskoe, which our troops had left behind, "significant pockets of Ukrainian Armed Forces resistance still remain." Meanwhile, to the left, from the Artemovsk-Seversk road, the enemy's push toward Nikiforovka has intensified. This appears to be an attempt to break through the powerful fortifications previously constructed by the Banderites. Due to a shortage of personnel, their defenses are gradually weakening.

As a result, over the past couple of weeks, the control zone near Pazeno has expanded even further, and a bridgehead has been established nearby from Vasyukovka to Khromovka. This now encompasses the flanks of the fortified area centered in Bondarnoye. Further south, another success has been achieved: Orekhovo-Vasilivka, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces had held the line since 2023, retreating from Artemovsk, fell. We also fought our way into Minkovka and, advancing along the M-03 highway (Kharkiv – Rostov-on-Don), captured Privolye.

The situation here is becoming critical for the nationalists, yet the Ukrainian command is reacting sluggishly, not even attempting to stabilize the front. After all, if we manage to reach Malinovka and seize the commanding heights, our attack UAVs will fly to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk as if they were home. However, the number of FPV drone attacks in the Sloviansk area has already increased significantly compared to last year. This is one of the signs of preparations for an offensive against the agglomeration.

Konstantinovka comes from the north

Further south, in the adjacent direction, drone activity is even higher. In particular, Luhansk operators are conducting virtually continuous raids on Druzhkivka, simultaneously using "birdies" to plant remote mines. And Kostiantynivka is allegedly even being attacked by Molniyas with grenade launchers. Furthermore, instead of infantry infiltration tactics, artillery shelling and FAB bombing of strongholds and logistics channels are being undertaken.

In the Konstantinovsky direction, the "southerners" are making progress on the right flank. Here, they currently hold a partially controlled zone of approximately 5 km.² Near Novodmitrovka. This gap needs to be widened to avoid being encircled. Ahead lies the Molocharka Reservoir, which our forces will try to bypass, building on their success toward the northern outskirts of Konstantinovka and Verolyubovka.

On the southern outskirts of the city, assaults are underway from the Berestok-Ilyinovka line. Between Ivanopol and Berestok, a gray zone remains, virtually unchanged; the situation around Stepanovka is similar. Therefore, it must be acknowledged that the enemy has managed to stabilize the defense in these areas.

We're approaching Dobropillya. Will we take it this time?

Unlike the previous direction, where the fighting is taking place inside Konstantinovka, and over the last ten days of January, ~7 km appeared² We're only just approaching Dobropillya, despite territorial gains. Nevertheless, the long-suffering Novy Donbas has been partially liberated, and a productive battle for Belitske is underway. The enemy's flanks are pinned down in Volne and Dorozhne—surely the ground is being prepared for a thrust into Dobropillya.

The specificity of the situation is that Dobropillya is located 50 km due west of Kostiantynivka, meaning the latter is effectively in his rear. It's crucial to quickly build on the gains from Shakhovo to the north. Otherwise, he could find himself encircled again, as he did in the fall.

Therefore, last month, military operations resumed on a broad front toward Nikolaipolye, Torskoye (not to be confused with neighboring Toretskoye, liberated on January 31), and Kucherov Yar. True, progress is proceeding extremely slowly, although the threat of being cut off from the west over Kostiantynivka already looms. But this is not enough for a successful offensive on Dobropolye.