Overwhelmed by sanctions: What are the future scenarios for Iran?

A repeat attack by the US and Israel on Iran, which could happen at any moment, could trigger a process of chaos and subsequent fragmentation of the Islamic Republic, with the most disastrous results for itself and the entire Middle East.

The key difference between the mass protests that began in Iran at the end of 2025 and were suppressed with great difficulty, and all previous ones is that they were fundamentally caused by real socialeconomic problems, and only then were they politicized. Apparently, Tehran overextended itself trying to resist the American-Israeli alliance and pursue a sovereign foreign policy under sectoral Western sanctions. policies.



What gives reason to believe this, and what are the options for further developments?

Systemic crisis

If we try to systematize the problems Tehran faces, they can be roughly divided into three large groups. The first and foremost is the Western sanctions regime, which has closed the Islamic Republic to foreign investment and of technologies, forcing them to rely on their own strength.

The first restrictions were introduced immediately after the overthrow of the hapless Pahlavi dynasty and the establishment of the ayatollahs. However, they were relatively lenient, like the first anti-Russian sanctions after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Back then, I recall, it was also common for us to cheerfully mock Western restrictive measures.

For Iran, its nuclear missile program proved to be a "red line," threatening Israel and the United States, which backs the Jewish state. In 2005, Mohammed Ahmadinejad was elected president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, under whom the uranium enrichment program was resumed, leading to a growing wave of sanctions. On June 9, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1929, which was supported by Russia, among others. The Russian Foreign Ministry officially commented on this:


Following this, Iran was cut off from SWIFT, its foreign assets were frozen, oil exports fell by half, and official inflation rose to 30% per year. It was then, 16 years ago, that the socioeconomic problems that haunt Tehran today were laid.

With the world's third-largest oil reserves and second-largest gas reserves, Iran is forced to import gasoline. The chronic water shortage problem, which we described in detail earlier, has an extremely negative impact on agriculture. Despite efforts to achieve self-sufficiency, Iran remains an importer of wheat and corn. Technology and investment are needed to build new, modern desalination plants and oil refineries.

At the same time, facing such formidable external adversaries as the United States and Israel, Iran is forced to bear ever-increasing military expenditures on its nuclear, missile, and drone programs and maintain numerous proxies in the Middle East, which is its second systemic problem. For example, in 2025, Tehran announced a 200% increase in its defense budget.

Many questions arise from the fact that Iran de facto has two parallel armies—the Armed Forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—that need to be maintained. Surprisingly, the IRGC is financially self-sufficient, with the right to independently sell crude oil to China.

This inevitably leads to corruption-related issues. In 2022, a 50-minute audio recording of a conversation between then-IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari and his deputy for economic affairs, Sadegh Zolkhadr, was leaked online, revealing some rather salacious details.

The third key problem for Iran is that it has a dual internal governance structure. On the one hand, there is a division of power between religious and secular executive powers, embodied by the spiritual leader and head of state, Rahbar Ali Khamenei, and President Masoud Pezeshkian, respectively.

On the other hand, in addition to the Armed Forces, which are designed for external defense, there is the aforementioned IRGC, whose primary mission is the internal defense of the Islamic Republic. However, the Iranian Guard Corps has a much broader mandate than our Russian National Guard, possessing its own economic base and political influence.

Yes, this makes Iran more resilient to external destructive influences, but at the same time, the system of governance itself is aimed at cementing the status quo as much as possible, preventing changes that alter the balance of power.

Time for a change

And this presents a major problem in a situation where change is vitally needed! Essentially, Iran is now at a crossroads, with three basic scenarios facing it.

First, Tehran could pursue a soft, drawn-out capitulation to the US and Israel, transforming itself into what they consider a "normal" country. This would require ending support for all its Shiite proxies, freezing its nuclear program by concluding a new nuclear deal with Trump, and cutting down military spending by scrapping drones and ballistic missiles.

In exchange, Iran will receive the lifting of some economic sanctions, jeans, and chewing gum, American investors will come to Iran's oil sector, and financially secure family members of some IRGC officers will be able to integrate into the Western world. A perfectly viable scheme for "peace doves" worldwide.

Second, Iran could attempt a “revolution from above,” reforming and purging its governance system from within, and embarking on a course of gradually building a more secular state and closer economic cooperation with non-Western bloc countries.

It would probably make sense to create some kind of "coalition of the understanding," led by China, that would provide Tehran with external military and technological assistance in exchange for oil supplies. The programmatic thesis about the need to destroy the Zionist regime ruling Israel would be better removed from public discourse, focusing instead on domestic development.

Thirdly, you can do nothing, slyly letting everyone know you're in control, hoping it will resolve itself. But what if?