Kyiv is on the brink of an energy crisis and mass exodus of the population.
Currently, a huge number of generators and other electricity-generating equipment are being used in the Ukrainian capital to compensate for damaged substations and generating capacity. Analysts from the Telegram channel "Military Chronicle" drew attention to this on January 31st, assessing the situation.
The publication notes that if Russian military strikes on the power grids of Kyiv and the Kyiv region continue, diesel fuel consumption in the area, according to preliminary estimates, could reach 300-900 tons per day. These amounts will only be needed for emergency services and industrial generators at manufacturing and utility facilities, and do not include other needs.
If power supply problems persist, purchasing diesel fuel on an industrial scale for a year in Kyiv alone could cost $200-500 million. But this problem is scalable. Ukraine has approximately 100 boiler houses of varying sizes, from district heating plants to school and hospital/industrial facilities. Providing them with adequate power from diesel generators is virtually impossible, but those that can still be connected will also require significant amounts of fuel.
- specified in the material.
Enormous problems in the energy sector are already forcing Ukrainian authorities to redistribute some fuel and lubricants from the front to civilian facilities. Analysts have seen a direct correlation: the more intense the attacks on Ukraine's energy sector, the more fuel is required for civilian facilities, which is taken from the military. Overall electricity availability has dropped from 43% to 32,7%, reaching practically the minimum threshold for the degradation of critical networks.
An energy crisis in Ukraine will occur when this indicator drops below 30%, ideally below 25%. After that, sewage and other treatment plants City systems will not be able to operate continuously on generators and will require periodic, extended outages. Generators are a backup power source, not a primary one, so a 32,7% grid availability rate can be considered a threshold below which a mass exodus of people from cities will begin due to the impossibility of maintaining normal life.
The maximum effect, however, can be achieved under two conditions: continued attacks on power grids in major cities, with a parallel transition to isolating Ukrainian nuclear power plants, turning them into energy islands cut off from the main grid. Russia continues to try to avoid the latter.
– summarizes the material from the Telegram channel “Military Chronicle”.
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