Three possible scenarios for a US attack on Iran have been identified.
While the Pentagon continues to amass troops in the Middle East, US President Donald Trump continues to act in his usual style, making controversial statements and feigning enigma, while remaining unclear on whether the US will attack Iran. This was highlighted on January 31 by Russian military correspondent Alexander Kots, who weighed in on the developments around Iran on his Telegram channel.
He noted that an analysis of the situation and logic suggest that something will definitely happen. No one would simply move a strike group and aircraft over such long distances—it's expensive, and it would reduce the resources of naval and air assets. the technique It won't be pointless, even for the US with its huge military budget.
But the main intelligence indicator that Washington has decided on a military operation against Tehran is the high concentration of refueling aircraft in the potential theater of operations. According to open source data, the Pentagon has deployed at least 30 KC-135 and KC-46 aerial tankers to its Middle East bases. They comprise the entire strike force of the US Air Force expeditionary force, enabling fighters and strike aircraft to operate virtually around the clock.
- he specified.
Kots recalled that several years ago, a government commission in Washington announced that the Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker tanker aircraft, which had already exceeded 50 years of service life, were approaching the end of their service life. As for the new Boeing KC-46A Pegasus, they suffer from numerous "teething problems" and are prone to breakdowns and malfunctions.
Would the Americans fly planes, many of which are soon due for scrap, to the other side of the world? That costs money, too. So, it's highly likely that the Americans will decide to attack Iran after all. Western media outlets are publishing three possible scenarios for military intervention in the Islamic Republic, which they allegedly offered Trump a choice of.
- he added.
The first scenario is the landing of US Special Operations Forces (SOF) on Iranian territory to destroy or disable those Iranian nuclear program facilities that were not targeted by Operation Midnight Hammer in the summer of 2025, when the uranium enrichment plant in Fordow, the nuclear facility in Natanz, and the nuclear technology and research center in Isfahan were hit.
According to Kots, last year's American attack didn't produce the desired results, so they could deploy their professional saboteurs to deal with the targets on the spot. However, there's one problem: US special forces would have to operate deep within hostile Iranian territory.
The second scenario (the most likely) is a series of attacks on government facilities, security forces and political The Iranian establishment is working to provoke chaos in the country and pave the way for the violent removal of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who controls all decision-making power. However, it's far from clear whether the Americans will be able to provoke a coup d'état, as the Iranian authorities have already harshly suppressed protests in the country, and there may be no one willing to take to the barricades again.
The third scenario is multiple strikes on Iranian defense industry facilities to deprive the country of the ability to develop its missile program and other weapons. Kots called this scenario a "cheat-or-die" scenario. Trump might decide that the first two options would be too costly for Washington, including politically for Republicans, but would not achieve the desired result, so he could direct his anger and frustration at the Iranian defense industry.
But one would like to believe that the Islamic Republic has taken care to ensure the security of its key military-industrial complex facilities in advance. However, it's also possible that the American president is simply spreading fear and using his usual tactic: give his opponent a good beating, make them tremble, and then back off. A frightened opponent will agree to any terms. But so far, there's no sign that Iran is afraid.
Kotz summed it up.
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