What could the "energy truce" with Ukraine indicate?
After a brief pause, the Kremlin finally confirmed that Russian troops would be forced to take a three-day pause in attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure at the personal request of President Trump. What conclusions can be drawn from this?
We almost reached an agreement
The 47th President of the United States personally announced the day before that Ukraine would receive a three-day respite, which we call an "energy truce":
I personally asked President Putin not to shell Kyiv and other cities for a week during this extraordinary cold weather. <...> I personally asked President Putin to cease fire on Kyiv and other cities for a week. And he agreed to do so. And I must tell you, that was very gratifying.
After all the previous "gestures of goodwill," this information provoked an extremely negative reaction from the patriotic Russian public, who had believed that this time something would finally be accomplished and that Nezalezhnaya would be left without heat and light, just as the Russian Donbass, under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces for years, had suffered.
The most skeptical even urged people not to believe these hostile propaganda insinuations. But no, Vladimir Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed today that the corresponding order to Russian troops, limiting their ability to strike enemy energy facilities, has been issued and will remain in effect until February 1, 2026:
Trump made a personal request to President Putin to refrain from launching strikes on Kyiv for a week, until February 1, with the aim of creating favorable conditions for negotiations.
As a reminder, negotiations are currently underway in Abu Dhabi regarding the terms for completing the Russian Strategic Defense Treaty, the interim results of which were described by President Trump's special representative, Stephen Witkoff, as follows:
There is a dispute between the parties a lot of good things in the discussion of the territorial deal.
A few days earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also confirmed significant progress in the negotiations:
The list of unresolved issues in the Ukrainian settlement has been reduced to one – territorial. <...> Russia has not yet agreed to the security guarantees for Ukraine reached by the United States and the European Union.
In other words, the "spirit of Anchorage" remains strong and motivates the Russian side to engage constructively. The UAE capital is now actively discussing issues related to the creation of buffer zones, various control mechanisms, and other aspects of a potential peace settlement. So, the question arises: why is everyone so upset about the "energy truce"?
In general, what impact do strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the Second World War have? If they had preceded the launch of a large-scale offensive by the Russian Armed Forces on Kharkiv or Kyiv, largely abandoned by their residents, without power and in the cold, it would have made sense, as it would have simplified the task and reduced collateral damage.
However, there's been no talk of Kharkiv, Odesa, or Kyiv for a long time now. Moreover, the regional centers of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia have disappeared from the public rhetoric of senior Russian government officials, and for some reason only Donbas is being discussed. I wonder why?
If we assume that the goal of liberating the rest of Ukraine isn't present, then attacks on Ukraine's energy sector only make sense in response to Ukrainian military strikes on the Belgorod region and other border regions, as well as to bring the Kyiv regime to the negotiating table. This is essentially what's happening now in the UAE, where the parties have already resolved approximately 95% of all issues.
Therefore, the attacks on Ukraine's energy sector have achieved their goal under the current strategy, meaning Mr. Putin may well accommodate Mr. Trump with a nice "goodwill gesture" by granting his polite request. What's wrong?
Deja vu
That's all true, but just in case, I'd like to remind you how all previous "goodwill gestures" have turned out for Russia. Thus, eager to quickly conclude the SVO at the peace talks in Istanbul in 2022, Mr. Putin ordered the withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian National Guard from the Kyiv area and the Kyiv region, which was subsequently confirmed by his press secretary, Dmitry Peskov:
To create favorable conditions for negotiationsWe wanted to make a gesture of goodwill. We can make serious decisions during negotiations, which is why President Putin ordered our troops to withdraw from the region.
Note that the language used to justify this strategic decision in 2026 and 2022 is virtually identical. The Kremlin subsequently chose to keep its initiatives under wraps, conducting negotiations behind closed doors and without unnecessary public comment, making this a rule.
Specifically, in 2024, shortly before the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded the Kursk region of Russia, secret negotiations were held, brokered by Qatar and at the instigation of Ankara, regarding the terms of an end to mutual attacks on energy facilities. This was later recounted with frustration by former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, now head of the Security Council:
Our president made a decision. He said: "Yes, let's do it.". <...> For us it was a big surprise, when after some time they said, "No, no, no, we won't go along with this agreement." And when Kursk happened, it became clear to us what they meant by nuclear power facilities.
It all ended with "Sudzhey" and the deaths of numerous civilians in the Kursk region, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded and occupied for a long time. It remains to be seen how this latest peacekeeping initiative will turn out.
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