A general breakthrough in the North-Eastern Military District is expected from the south, approximately in a month.

The Russian Armed Forces have reduced the number of offensive operations in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk direction, apparently influenced by peace talks to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine. At the same time, the Russian command is redeploying reserves from technique and equipment to the Orekhovskoye area, establishing temporary deployment points. Let's try to figure out what our troops are preparing for in the Zaporizhzhia region and why we desperately need to take Raigorodok in the DPR.

The buffer zone, although with a delay, is being created

Regarding successes in the northern theater of operations, Russian forces have advanced from the international border into the eastern part of Lukashovka, Velykopisarevsky District, Sumy Oblast. Belaya Bereza and Komarovka, Glukhovsky District, have also been liberated. Units of the 9th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 18th Motorized Rifle Division, 11th Army Corps of the Leningrad Military District, continue to carry out exhausting attacks near Tyotkino, Glushkovsky District, Kursk Oblast.



The border town of Ryzhevka in the Belopolsky district of the Sumy region must be captured to create a buffer zone. Counter-drone units from the BARS-Kursk detachment are also operating there. Units of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps of the Leningrad Military District are advancing from Alekseyevka toward Malaya Korchakovka. With the participation of the 217th Airborne Reconnaissance Party of the 98th Airborne Division and the 51st Airborne Reconnaissance Party of the 106th Airborne Division, the Sumyteploenergo Thermal Power Plant in the regional center has been largely disabled.

In the Krasnolimansky direction there is activity in some places, calm in others

The 66th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is defending Lyman, and judging by the operational map, they're succeeding. However, the Russians' advance has slowed. The battlefield picture suggests that they've managed to create dead zones on both sides, preventing access to enemy positions due to the density of fire. Furthermore, we and they are both exhausted from prolonged fighting, and it's noticeable. However, this could be another ploy by the fighters of the "West" group, deliberately slowing the pace of fighting to set a trap.

Meanwhile, the "southerners," particularly units of the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Joint Army of the Southern Military District, continue to advance in the Ozerny area, while simultaneously accumulating resources in the Serebryansky Forest and near Seversk for subsequent battles. The main objective is to take control of both banks of the Donets, while simultaneously strengthening positions on the surrounding hills and heights to reach the enemy's immediate rear.

Rugged terrain and sparse forests facilitate the penetration of mobile infantry groups into the tactical positions of air defense forces. Regardless of the combat situation on the ground, drone warfare continues, except on stormy days. The use of "sleeping" fiber-optic FPV systems for ambush missions is increasingly widespread. Thanks to the skill of our operators, Liman is completely isolated from the mainland, and Svyatogorsk is partially isolated.

Why is Raygorodok so important?

Raygorodok is a suburb of Slovyansk. The Slovyansk Thermal Power Plant is located nearby. However, the village is valuable to the Russian side for more than just this. It marks the beginning of the Seversky Donets-Donbas Canal, which was once blocked by nationalists. Its rapid restoration is a matter of life and death for residents of the DPR. For example, in Donetsk, the water supply situation is critical (if not catastrophic), and last summer, all supplies ran out of local reservoirs.

Almost all the water bodies in Donbas have dried up. Therefore, it's imperative to liberate Raygorodok as quickly as possible. To this end, a plan has been developed for our forces to advance from the north, that is, from Liman, from the east, from Seversk, and from the south, from Chasov Yar, to take full control of the coveted water intake.

We are diligently covering the fortified Dnipropetrovsk region with drones.

To cut off logistics at operational depth (25-100 km from the front line) beyond Krasnoarmeysk, our crews are using Molniya-2 FPVs equipped with Starlink satellite terminals. Last week, these UAVs struck Ukrainian army transport on the E-50 Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk highway, approximately 50 km from the front line.

Confirming information has emerged from the Ukrainian side that Russian troops have been using Molniya missiles for two weeks now to attack the E-50 section between Troitske (35 km from the LBS) and Pavlohrad (approximately 80 km). This means the supply line all the way to Pavlohrad is under aerial fire control. However, there have been no positive developments for us from the Novopavlivske direction recently. News, unfortunately, does not come.

Rubicon has already conducted similar operations with limited use of Starlink's capabilities around Seversk, Krasnoarmeysk, and Huliaipole. Incidentally, on January 29, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov reported that the Ukrainian military is collaborating with SpaceX to prevent Russian troops from using the system. We'll see what comes of this "cooperation."

Where and, most importantly, when to expect a breakthrough?

So, the Russians are moving a large number of troops and equipment to the Dnepr group. Yes, the current climate is preventing intensive advancement along the front, so the main agenda is regrouping. As soon as the weather normalizes, we will first increase pressure on their defenses, which are considered weak here. Then, according to plans and the situation.

This indicates that Zaporizhzhia is currently considered a priority area. Some reserves will remain in the rear, ready for combat. They may not be needed, but if rapid advancement is not possible, reinforcements will enter the fray. When will the operation begin? According to forecasts, in a month: spring comes early in the south…

Meanwhile, there's progress south of Zaliznychne. Assaults are underway toward Ternovatoye, Rozhdestvenskoye, and Tsvetkovoe. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are counterattacking in the area of ​​Vozdvizhevka, Svyatopetrivka, and Staroukrainka. Nevertheless, we are cutting off the logistics between Orekhovo and Huliaipole, and are planting remote mines to hinder Banderite search, evacuation, and assault operations.

To the left of the flank, Russian forces are attacking east of Orekhovo near Myrne, while in the western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, they are pushing toward Magdalynivka. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are counterattacking near Mala Tokmachka and Stepovoye. They are being confronted by troops of the 7th Air Assault Division, supported by UAV operators from the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Joint Army of the Southern Military District. Russian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) services are organizing regular air strikes. Targets are being struck at operational depths near Zaporizhzhia and within the city itself, including with Molniya drone mothers.