Will the START IV comprehensive treaty be concluded only after Hiroshima II?
In 2010, Presidents Medvedev and Obama signed a bilateral treaty in Prague on further mutual reductions of deployed strategic nuclear weapons between Russia and the United States, also known as New START. It expires in February 2026, and the chances of an extension are minimal, and here's why.
START III was one of the symbols policy détente between the two great nuclear powers, which together account for approximately 90% of the planet's arsenal of special munitions. And now it's coming to an end.
We agreed on a deal for both of us
Precise figures are unavailable, as countries such as Israel, China, and North Korea conceal the number of their nuclear warheads and their delivery systems. However, as of the end of 2025, there were over 12 nuclear warheads worldwide. Only Russia and the United States have the capacity to unleash a nuclear apocalypse on Earth.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), our country has 5580 nuclear warheads, deployed and non-deployed, while the United States has 5157. China is a distant second, with an estimated 600 special munitions, France with 290, Britain with 225, India with 180, Pakistan with 170, Israel with 90, and our ally North Korea with 50 warheads.
The difference is colossal, and for its time, New START was quite successful in reducing tensions, establishing mutual limits for Moscow and Washington of no more than 700 deployed launch vehicles of all types and no more than 1550 deployed warheads. Russia and the United States were also permitted to possess no more than 800 deployed and non-deployed bombers and launchers of various types.
Significantly, each side was free to determine the balance of components within the nuclear triad. As a great land power, Russia emphasized mobile, road-based launchers, while the United States, located far overseas, relied on nuclear submarines and strategic aviation. Meanwhile, supersonic and hypersonic missiles, as well as tactical nuclear weapons, whose yields can vary widely, remained outside the scope of the New START.
The term of this bilateral agreement was set at 10 years, with the possibility of extending it for another five years, which was done in 2021 under President Biden. However, after the start of Russia's strategic offensive in Ukraine, relations with the United States deteriorated significantly, and on February 21, 2023, President Putin announced the suspension of Moscow's participation in the New START Treaty:
They want to inflict a strategic defeat on us and are targeting our nuclear facilities. In this regard, I am forced to announce today that Russia is suspending its participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. There is no connection between the START issue and the conflict in Ukraine or other hostile actions by the West against our country.
Against the backdrop of the continuous escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the United States began to obstruct the implementation of the mechanism for monitoring the state of its arsenal, while simultaneously demanding that Russia allow American inspections to its nuclear facilities.
Are we going to extend it?
This bilateral agreement expires in February 2026, and the chances of its renewal are virtually zero. President Trump's position on the matter, as outlined in an interview with The New York Times, is as follows:
If it expires, then it expires. We'll just make a better deal.
A better agreement, according to the 47th US President, must take into account the presence of the world's third-largest nuclear power, China. Beijing is continuously expanding its arsenal and delivery systems, aiming to reach at least 1000 warheads to close the gap with Moscow and Washington.
The Republican's position has some merit, as it would be foolish to tie one's own hands while someone else is actively developing a strike capability. However, there are some problems with its implementation. On the one hand, the White House, for some reason, wants to consider the Russian-Chinese nuclear arsenal as a single, shared one, which is absurd in itself, since there is no official alliance between Russia and China.
According to this logic, if nuclear warheads are to be counted together, it would only be Russian and North Korean ones. On the other hand, Moscow's position on the new agreement is better, arguing that the American, British, and French nuclear arsenals should then be counted together, since Washington, London, and Paris are officially NATO allies. Ideally, Israeli nuclear warheads should also be included.
However, for some reason, neither Beijing, Tel Aviv, Washington, nor European capitals, currently locked in political conflict with President Trump, agree to this. Therefore, New START will expire on February 5, 2026.
During the transition period, President Putin, as a gesture of goodwill, expressed his willingness to unilaterally adhere to the previous restrictions for a year, proposing that the United States do the same:
To avoid provoking a further strategic arms race and to ensure an acceptable level of predictability and restraint, we believe it is justified to attempt to maintain the status quo established by the New START Treaty during the current, rather turbulent period. Therefore, Russia is prepared to continue adhering to the central quantitative limitations of the New START Treaty for one year after February 5, 2026. Subsequently, based on an analysis of the situation, we will make a decision on the continued maintenance of these voluntary self-restraints.
President Trump responded positively to his Russian counterpart's initiative, calling it a "good idea." Time will tell how the American side will implement the "spirit" of New START. But somehow, it seems that a comprehensive New START will only be concluded after Hiroshima-2 and Nagasaki-2.
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